Alexander Zverev vs Denis Shapovalov - Madrid Open Tennis Prediction and Pick 4/28/24

Alexander Zverev vs Denis Shapovalov

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Alexander Zverev -500 / Denis Shapovalov +350 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Two-time champion Alexander Zverev will battle Canadian lefty Denis Shapovalov in the third round of the 2024 Madrid Open. The match will be played on Sunday, April 28, 2024. Here's our Alexander Zverev vs Denis Shapovalov prediction.

Zverev outclasses Coric in late-night opener

After a bye in the first round, Alexander Zverev wasted no time in returning to winning ways. He defeated Croatia's Borna Coric 6-3, 6-2 in an hour and 28 minutes. Zverev shocked his fans this past week when he threatened to tank during a match in Munich because of bad weather. He was eventually sent packing much earlier than anticipated. But that could be a blessing in disguise, as the German arrived in Madrid fit as a fiddle. The two-time former champion tallied five aces during the match and won a healthy 81% of first-serve points. Zverev did not face a single break point in the match.

Shapovalov picks up eighth win of the season

Denis Shapovalov has battled injuries for over six months and only made his return at the start of 2024. The Canadian looked woefully short of match sharpness during his comeback, and it took him at least a month before he strung successive wins on tour. And just for the second time this season, Shapovalov managed back-to-back wins after upsetting Argentina's Tomas Martin Etchverry 7-6, 6-3 to pick up his eighth win of the season. The World No. 132 needed about two hours to get the job done, although inconsistency behind his serve is unlikely to give him any reward against Zverev.

Alexander Zverev vs Denis Shapovalov Head-To-Head

Zverev and Shapovalov have met eight times on tour. The German leads the head-to-head 5-3. Their solitary meeting on clay was in 2018 in Madrid. Zverev won in straight sets.

Alexander Zverev vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

This should be a big test for Zverev, up against a former Top 10 player on the comeback trail. Shapovalov's big-hitting makes him a dangerous opponent for Zverev, especially at altitude where the ball flies much faster. But the Canadian is still profligate behind his serve, and he's been racking up the double fault column this week (16 across two matches). Zverev will ask plenty of questions on the return, and with Shapovalov averaging at least eight double faults per match, we recommend taking the price +137 on the Canadian left-hander to hit EIGHT or more double faults in the match.

Value bet: Shapovalov to serve eight double faults @ +137

Low-risk bet: Zverev to win

Nur’s Pick Alexander Zverev ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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