Rafael Nadal vs Matteo Berrettini Australian Open Tennis Picks and Predictions 1/27/22

Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal

Thursday, Jan 27

The Line: Rafael Nadal -190 / Matteo Berrettini +165 --- Over/Under Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Matteo Berrettini and Rafael Nadal meet in the semifinals of the 2022 tennis Australian Open.

Matteo Berrettini is coming off a five sets win over Gael Monfils that took 46 games to decide. In the victory, Berrettini won 74 percent of his first serve points and 51 percent of his second serve points. Berrettini won 65 percent of his total service points and converted on four of his 11 break points. Berrettini hit 12 aces in the victory and produced 51 winners to go with 50 unforced errors. Berrettini obviously has to be much cleaner in this match if he’s going to advance to the final. Berrettini looks to make his second career grand slam final appearance. Berrettini is 1-1 in previous grand slam semifinal matches. Berrettini has won six of his last eight matches on hard court.

Rafael Nadal is coming off a five sets win over Denis Shapovalov that took 47 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 79 percent of his first serve points and 46 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 68 percent of his total service points and converted on three of his seven break points. Nadal struggled with his second serve and had to play over four hours despite winning the first two sets. While well conditioned, it’s going to be interesting to see how a 35-year-old Nadal responds from such a marathon match. Nadal looks to make his sixth career final appearance in the Australian Open. Nadal has won 10 of his last 14 grand slam semifinal matches. Nadal has won nine straight matches on hard court. 

These two played once, which was in the 2019 US Open, a match Nadal won in straight sets. The match was decided in 30 games.

Berrettini has the ability to win this match if he can clean up the unforced errors, but I usually turn to the experience once we get to the business end of grand slams, and it's tough to bet against Nadal here. Nadal had no issues with Berrettini in their only other match, and he still has a second gear he can find when needed. He’s simply the safer bet here.

Give me Nadal -1.5 sets to shave down the price.

Randy’s Pick Rafael Nadal -1.5 Sets

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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