Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem - 2/2/20 Australian Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
Dominic Thiem vs. Novak Djokovic
Sunday, February 2, 2020 at 3:30 am (Australia)
The Line: Novak Djokovic -370 / Dominic Thiem +325 -- Over/Under: 38.5
Dominic Thiem and Novak Djokovic meet in the final of the 2020 tennis Australian Open.
Dominic Thiem is coming off a four sets win over Alexander Zverev that took 45 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 77 percent of his first serve points and 40 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 65 percent of his total service points and converted on four of his nine break points. Thiem got 67 percent of his first serves in play and hit 43 winners to 40 unforced errors. Thiem has played a lot of tennis to get to this point and a lot of tiebreaks, so you have to question just how much he has left in the gas tank to complete the task of a title. It looked like Thiem was fading late in the semifinals before he found another gear to squeeze by. Thiem hopes to win his first career grand slam title. Thiem is 0-2 in previous grand slam final appearances. Thiem has won eight of his last 11 matches on hard court.
Novak Djokovic is coming off a straight sets win over Rodger Federer that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Djokovic won 73 percent of his first serve points and 54 percent of his second serve points. Djokovic won 68 percent of his total service points and converted on four of his 11 break points. Djokovic got 73 percent of his first serves in play, saved five of seven break points and hit 31 winners to 18 unforced errors. Djokovic has been the most consistent player this tournament and has the privilege of having an extra rest day over his opponent. Djokovic hopes to win his 17th career grand slam title and his eighth title at the Australian Open. Djokovic is 7-0 in final appearances at the Australian Open and has won his last four grand slam final appearances overall. Djokovic has won 13 straight matches on hard court.
These two have played 11 times and Djokovic has won seven of those matches. However, Thiem has won won four of the last six matches, which includes the most recent match in London back in November. Seven of the 11 matches have been decided in straight sets.
Thiem obviously has a chance here given the recent history against Djokovic, but I question just how much he has left in the tank after playing so much physical tennis. We saw Thiem look sluggish late in the semifinals and it was questionable then if he has enough to close the deal. Djokovic has not only been in great form, but he’s had the extra day of rest which makes him that much scarier.
Djokovic wins, but in terms of a much better price, I’ll back him to win this match in straights.