Dominic Thiem vs. Gael Monfils - 1/26/20 Australian Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Dominic Thiem vs. Gael Monfils - 1/26/20 Australian Open Tennis Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Gael Monfils vs. Dominic Thiem

Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 7:00 pm (Australia)

The Line: -- Over/Under:

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Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem meet in the fourth round of the 2019 tennis Australian Open.

Gael Monfils is coming off a straight sets win over Ernests Gulbis that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Monfils won 78 percent of his first serve points and 60 percent of his second serve points. Monfils won 72 percent of his total service points and converted on five of his nine break points. Monfils got 69 percent of his first serves in play and saved four of his six break points. Monfils has won six of his first seven sets and has kept his unforced error total down for the most part, something the Frenchman must continue if he hopes to advance any further in this tournament. Monfils hopes to make an Australian Open quarterfinal for the second time in his career and his second grand slam quarterfinal since 2017. Monfils has won four of his last five matches on hard court.

Dominic Thiem is coming off a four sets win over Taylor Fritz that took 41 games to decide. In the victory, Thiem won 77 percent of his first serve points and 55 percent of his second serve points. Thiem won 69 percent of his total service points and converted on five of his nine break points. Thiem saved six of his seven break points and had 56 winners to go along with 40 unforced errors. Not the prettiest match for Thiem, and he’s played over seven hours of tennis in his last two matches, so fatigue could be a factor moving forward. Thiem hopes to make his first career Australian Open quarterfinal and the sixth grand slam quarterfinal of his career. Thiem has won four of his last five matches on hard court. 

Thiem has won all five meetings against Monfils, including the most recent in last years French Open. Each of the last three meetings were decided in straight sets. Three of the five matches took place on clay court. 

Many will use the h2h numbers against Monfils, but these two haven’t played on hard court since Indian Wells of 2017, so I’m not as high on the history as others may be. I’ve always been a fan of Monfils and root for him to do well, so there may be some bias here, but I’m backing the Frenchman to prevail. This isn’t the best surface for Thiem, he has had a higher than usual unforced error total and he’s played a lot of tennis in his last two matches. A focused and disciplined Monfils can win this match.

Give me Monfils for the upset.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.