Rafael Nadal vs. Diego Schwartzman French Open Tennis Picks and Predictions 10/9/20
Photo by Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
Diego Schwartzman vs. Rafael Nadal
Friday, October 9, 2020 at 8:50 AM (French Open)
The Line: Rafael Nadal -751 / Diego Schwartzman +571 -- Over/Under: 33.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
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Diego Schwartzman and Rafael Nadal meet in the semifinals of the 2020 tennis French Open.
Diego Schwartzman is coming off a five sets win over Dominic Thiem that took 59 games to decide. In the victory, Schwartzman won 62 percent of his first serve points and 52 percent of his second serve points. Schwartzman won 59 percent of his total service points and converted on 10 of his 16 break points. Schwartzman managed to win the final two sets of his match that took a marathon five hours to complete. It’s going to be interesting to see how much Schwartzman has left in the tank after such a physical match that probably took a lot out emotionally as well. Schwartzman is 11-4 since he returned to the sport from the COVID break. Schwartzman looks to make his first ever grand slam final appearance and the third final appearance of the year overall. A win here and Schwartzman makes his 10th career final appearance. Schwartzman has won nine of his last 10 matches on clay court.
Rafael Nadal is coming off a straight sets win over Jannik Sinner that took 30 games to decide. In the victory, Nadal won 67 percent of his first serve points and 59 percent of his second serve points. Nadal won 64 percent of his total service points and converted on six of his eight break points. Nadal got 65 percent of his first serves in play and saved five of his seven break points. Nadal has yet to drop a set this tournament and has played just one tiebreak. Nadal hopes to make his 13th final appearance at the French Open, and he’s never lost in the semifinals of this tournament. Nadal has lost just three grand slam semifinal appearances overall since 2010. Nadal has won seven of his last eight matches on clay court.
Nadal is 9-1 against Schwartzman in his career, but that one loss came this year in the Rome quarterfinals. Seven of Nadal’s victories over Schwartzman were decided in straight sets. Nadal is 3-1 against Schwartzman on clay court.
You can make a case for Schwartzman in this match given how sharp he’s looked since the sport came back and the fact he beat Nadal this year on his favorite surface. However, Schwartzman is coming off a marathon match and even with a day or two off, he has to be feeling it physically. Nadal has also cruised up to this point and is usually a machine at the French Open. There’s just no betting against Nadal at the French Open.
I’ll take Nadal and to shave down the ML price, I’ll take him in straight sets.