Newcastle 1-1-3 – Arsenal 3-1-1
September 28, 2025 at 11:30 AM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Newcastle +250 / Arsenal +115 — Over/Under: 2.5
In this article, we will formulate an Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction for this English Premier League Week 6 matchup on Sunday, September 28th, at the St. James’ Park. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this English Premier League matchup.
Newcastle is scoring 0.60 goals per game, which ranks 18th in the Premier League, while allowing 0.60 goals per game, which is 4th. Bruno Guimarães, Will Osula and Nick Woltemade are Newcastle’s top scorers with 1 goal each. Valentino Livramento and Jacob Murphy are Newcastle’s top passers, with 1 assist each.
Arsenal is scoring 2.00 goals per game, which ranks 2nd in the Premier League, while allowing 0.40 goals per game, which is 1st. Viktor Gyökeres is Arsenal’s top scorer with 3 goals, followed by Martín Zubimendi and Jurriën Timber with 2 goals each, and Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Riccardo Calafiori with 1 goal apiece. Riccardo Calafiori and Eberechi Eze are Arsenal’s top passers, with 2 assists each.
· The underdog has won each of Arsenal’s last four EPL matches at St. James’ Park.
· The underdog has won each of the last four EPL matches between Newcastle United and Arsenal at St. James’ Park.
· Newcastle United has won each of its last three EPL matches as a home underdog against Arsenal.
· Newcastle United has won five of its last six EPL day matches at St. James’ Park following a league draw.
· Newcastle United has won seven of its last nine EPL home matches.
· Arsenal has won each of its last five EPL Sunday matches against Newcastle United.
· Arsenal has won 20 of its last 25 EPL matches against Newcastle United.
· Arsenal has won five of its last seven EPL matches.
· The ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ market has hit in six of Newcastle United’s last seven EPL matches.
· The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in 12 of Newcastle United’s last 15 EPL home matches.
· The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in 12 of Newcastle United’s last 15 EPL home matches.
In this Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction, Arsenal is coming as +115 road favorites. Both teams have been undefeated in their last three and four games respectively, and Newcastle has three draws in their three home games this season, while Arsenal is 1-1 on the road. Newcastle won three of their four meetings against Arsenal last season, and have the 4th-best defense in the Premier League this season, so I like them as home dogs in this spot. Take Newcastle by +0.5 goals at home in this matchup.
Newcastle Preview
Newcastle has 6 points this season, with a 1-1-3 record, and are sitting on the 13th place in the Premier League standings. They have a 0-0-3 home record and a 1-1-0 away record. Newcastle is coming off a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth, where they had 44% possession of the ball and 4 total shots, 1 of them on target. They had 76% completed passes, and less expected goals, with 0.14 compared to Bournemouth’s 0.46.Newcastle is scoring 0.60 goals per game, which ranks 18th in the Premier League, while allowing 0.60 goals per game, which is 4th. Bruno Guimarães, Will Osula and Nick Woltemade are Newcastle’s top scorers with 1 goal each. Valentino Livramento and Jacob Murphy are Newcastle’s top passers, with 1 assist each.
Arsenal Preview
Arsenal has 10 points this season, with a 3-1-1 record, and are sitting on the 2nd place in the Premier League standings. They have a 2-0-1 home record and a 1-1-0 away record. Arsenal is coming off a 1-1 home draw against Manchester City, where they had 67% possession of the ball and 12 total shots, 3 of them on target. They had 89% completed passes, and more expected goals, with 0.88 compared to Manchester City’s 0.87.Arsenal is scoring 2.00 goals per game, which ranks 2nd in the Premier League, while allowing 0.40 goals per game, which is 1st. Viktor Gyökeres is Arsenal’s top scorer with 3 goals, followed by Martín Zubimendi and Jurriën Timber with 2 goals each, and Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Riccardo Calafiori with 1 goal apiece. Riccardo Calafiori and Eberechi Eze are Arsenal’s top passers, with 2 assists each.
Why Newcastle will win
· The home team has won each of the last four EPL matches between Newcastle United and Arsenal.· The underdog has won each of Arsenal’s last four EPL matches at St. James’ Park.
· The underdog has won each of the last four EPL matches between Newcastle United and Arsenal at St. James’ Park.
· Newcastle United has won each of its last three EPL matches as a home underdog against Arsenal.
· Newcastle United has won five of its last six EPL day matches at St. James’ Park following a league draw.
· Newcastle United has won seven of its last nine EPL home matches.
Why Arsenal will win
· Arsenal has won seven of its last eight EPL day matches against Newcastle United.· Arsenal has won each of its last five EPL Sunday matches against Newcastle United.
· Arsenal has won 20 of its last 25 EPL matches against Newcastle United.
· Arsenal has won five of its last seven EPL matches.
Total Points Facts
· The ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in eight of Newcastle United’s last nine EPL matches.· The ‘Under 1.5 Goals’ market has hit in six of Newcastle United’s last seven EPL matches.
· The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in 12 of Newcastle United’s last 15 EPL home matches.
· The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in 12 of Newcastle United’s last 15 EPL home matches.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction
Newcastle was 3-1 in their four meetings against Arsenal last season, winning both games at home by 2-0 and 1-0. Under is 9-1 in their last 10 meetings.In this Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction, Arsenal is coming as +115 road favorites. Both teams have been undefeated in their last three and four games respectively, and Newcastle has three draws in their three home games this season, while Arsenal is 1-1 on the road. Newcastle won three of their four meetings against Arsenal last season, and have the 4th-best defense in the Premier League this season, so I like them as home dogs in this spot. Take Newcastle by +0.5 goals at home in this matchup.