Ajax vs Brighton Prediction - Soccer Picks 11/9/23

Ajax (0-2-1) vs Brighton (1-1-1)

Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 12:45 pm (Johan Cruijff Arena)

Ajax +330/Brighton -122 - Over/Under: 2.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Round 4 of the UEFA Europa League begins on Thursday, November 7, 2023, with the tilt between Ajax and Brighton at Johan Cruijff Arena. The situation in Group B demands Ajax (2 pts) to get a victory here, but Brighton (4 pts) are coming to Amsterdam as favorites. Here you can take a look at our Ajax vs Brighton betting preview and prediction.

Ajax (Form and News)

It’s been uncharted territory for 28-time Eredivisie champions Ajax in recent times, with a pair of back-to-back wins only enough to move them off the foot of the table in the Eredivisie. But such has been the dismal start to their campaign both domestically and on the European front, they find themselves in a relegation battle and staring down the barrel of a UEFA Europa League (UEL) group stage exit.

Bringing up the rear in Group B, it’s getting towards ‘now or never’ territory for Ajax, but with eight successive winless outings against English opposition (D1, L7), the visit of Brighton suggests they’re likely to head into the ‘never’ territory. New boss John van 't Schip will hope he can arrest that run in his first-ever UEL game in management, and in turn, secure Ajax a third successive home win for the first time in 2023!

Player to watch: Much-travelled Englishman Chuba Akpom spent time on loan at Brighton in 2017, and is in good form after rounding off the scoring in Ajax’s last two victories.

Van 't Schip will be without injured goalkeeper Jay Gorter. Sivert Mannsverk (leg), Geronimo Rulli (shoulder), and Amourricho van Axel Dongen (injury) are questionable to feature on Thursday.

Brighton (Form and News)

Brighton are enjoying their maiden European campaign and can take a giant stride towards the knockout stages with a victory in Amsterdam. Their weekend result wasn’t quite as positive, drawing 1-1 against lowly Everton. Although after boss Roberto De Zerbi made five changes to that side from their game prior, it’s evident he’s trying his best to strike a balance between domestic and European exploits.

Perhaps that’s a contributing factor to Brighton’s abject run of late (W1, D4, L1), although the sole win in that streak did come against Ajax, with the Seagulls winning 2-0 back in October. A repeat result would be welcomed in Brighton’s first-ever trip to the Netherlands in UEFA competition, not least because it would see them climb into Group B’s top two with just two games left.

Hot stat: The home side on the day has scored exactly twice in all three of Brighton’s UEL group stage games.

Player to watch: Responsible for four of Brighton’s six UEL group stage goals, João Pedro has seen all six of his goals this season arrive on or beyond the 30th minute.

De Zerbi cannot count on Julio Enciso (knee), Solly March (knee), and Danny Welbeck (muscle).

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Ajax vs Brighton H2H Record

Ajax and Brighton have met once before, and it was that duel in England two weeks ago. Joao Pedro and Ansu Fati scored for the Seagulls in a 2-0 victory.

Ajax vs Brighton Odds

Ajax are underdogs at +330; Brighton can be backed at -122, while a draw is at +360. If you prefer betting on goals instead, go with Over 2.5 at -196 or Under 2.5 at +200. When it comes to both teams to score, BTTS YES is at -189, while BTTS NO is at +180. Make sure to check out more soccer odds here!

Ajax vs Brighton Pick

Although Ajax are unrecognizable this season, they managed to connect two victories. Brighton have a stronger team, no doubt about it, but the Seagulls are not playing well lately. They recorded just two wins in the last ten matches in all competitions, and are winless in the previous five on the road (D2, L3).

This is perhaps the last train to catch for Ajax, but I have faith in Berghuis, Bergwijn, Brobbey, Taylor, and Akpom. Brighton are inexperienced side when it comes to European football, something they proved in a home loss to AEK Athens earlier this season. I am not brave enough to back Ajax to win here, but I am pretty confident in double chance.