Dortmund vs Newcastle Prediction - Soccer Picks 11/7/23

Dortmund (1-1-1) vs Newcastle (1-1-1)

Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 12:45 pm (Signal Iduna Park)

Dortmund +176/Newcastle +170 - Over/Under: 2.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Champions League returns with Round 4 matches on Tuesday, November 7, 2023, when Borussia Dortmund welcome Newcastle United at Signal Iduna Park. The Magpies will be seeking revenge for a 1-0 loss in England, while Dortmund are desperate to bounce back from a massive defeat against Bayern Munich in Bundesliga. Both teams have four points from three games in Group F. Here is our Dortmund vs Newcastle betting preview and prediction.

Dortmund (Form and News)

Just two weeks after defeating Newcastle 1-0 to blow UEFA Champions League (UCL) Group F wide open, Borussia Dortmund now prepare to welcome them to Signal Iduna Park for the hotly anticipated reverse. Edin Terzić’s men have posted a mixed bag of domestic results since that memorable night on Tyneside (W1, D1, L1), a run culminating in their joint-heaviest home defeat in Der Klassiker (4-0) last weekend against arch-rivals Bayern Munich.

Dortmund keeper Gregor Kobel said there was “no excuse” for that result, but there is at least an immediate opportunity to assert themselves in the top two in Group F with a resurgent result. A four-game winless run of home games against English opponents ahead of this paints a bleak picture (D1, L3), yet the perennial Bundesliga challengers should enter this contest with confidence having lost just one of their last 16 UCL home group games (W9, D6, L1).

Hot stat: Just one of Dortmund’s last six competitive games stood level at half-time (HT: W2, D1, L3).

Player to watch: While he missed the reverse through injury, Dortmund’s Julian Brandt may return with a vengeance after scoring the first or last goal in two of his last four appearances.

Terzić will be without Julien Duranville (thigh), Thomas Meunier (inactive), and Mateu Morey (inactive). Emre Can is questionable with a thigh injury.

Newcastle (Form and News)

Newcastle have done some soul-searching since their reverse defeat, drawing with Wolves before turning on the style to defeat Manchester United and Arsenal without reply. The latter of which marked two years since Eddie Howe agreed to join the then-relegation battling club! Never losing away to German opponents in club history may provide even more comfort for the traveling Toon Army (W2, D1), yet the most recent of those trips was back in 2006/07.

Even so, Newcastle are historically strong in UEFA group stages, losing just three of their last 21 such games at any venue (W11, D7). That solid form matches up well with Newcastle’s general away form this season, as they’ve followed up defeats in their opening two competitive away games of the season with a five-game unbeaten run (W2, D3), albeit with their last two draws seeing them give up a lead on three occasions.

Player to watch: Miguel Almirón, whose four goals this season all came in -1 handicap-busting victories, whilst three also served as the match opener.

Eddie Howe cannot count on Elliot Anderson (back), Harvey Barnes (ankle), Sven Botman (knee), Alexander Isak (groin), Javier Manquillo (groin), Lewis Miley (illness), Jacob Murphy (shoulder), and Sandro Tonali (suspension). Dan Burn (back) and Lewis Miley (injury) are questionable to play.

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Dortmund vs Newcastle H2H Record

The aforementioned duel in Newcastle last week is the only H2H. Dortmund won 1-0 through Felix Nmecha’s goal seconds before half-time.

Dortmund vs Newcastle Odds

Dortmund are slight underdogs here at +176; a draw is +270, while you can bet on Newcastle to get three points at +170. For the goals, Over 2.5 is -123, while if you believe in another low-scoring affair, you can back Under 2.5 at +120. When it comes to both teams to score, BTTS YES is -152, and BTTS NO is +150. Find more Champions League odds here!

Dortmund vs Newcastle Pick

Dortmund’s loss to Bayern Munich over the weekend was the first at home in all competitions in 2023. They hope to forget that game and respond on Tuesday, but Newcastle are a well-organized side and play with a lot of confidence at the moment. Three points for either side could be crucial for the UCL knockout stage, so I believe the teams wouldn’t be unhappy with a draw here.

Last time out, I backed BTTS YES, but only Dortmund scored despite Newcastle’s 13 shots (4 on target). Now, I will avoid betting on goals, and I’ll go with a stalemate. Three of Newcastle’s last five road matches ended without a winner. Borussia drew the first home match of the Champions League campaign with AC Milan when it was 0-0.