Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction - Soccer Picks 11/4/23

Newcastle (5-2-3) vs Arsenal (7-3-0)

Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 12:30 pm (St. James' Park)

Newcastle +192/Arsenal +168 - Over/Under: 2.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Saturday’s (November 4, 2023) action in the Premier League will conclude with this Round 11 clash between Newcastle United and Arsenal at St. James' Park. Arsenal are one of two undefeated teams (Tottenham) in the PL, but they did suffer a 3-1 loss to West Ham in the Carabao Cup and will be looking to bounce back. Newcastle dismantled Manchester United at Old Trafford in midweek, and are searching for the fourth consecutive home win in PL. Here you can read our Newcastle vs Arsenal betting preview and prediction.

Newcastle (Form and News)

Newcastle United’s recovery from their slow start to the season, in which they lost three of their opening four Premier League (PL) games (W1), is well and truly in full swing. Since then, Eddie Howe’s men have racked up a six-game unbeaten PL streak (W4, D2), where they’ve been firing on all cylinders by keeping four clean sheets and scoring 2+ goals on five occasions. They scored two in the latest PL match against Wolves, and here is what I predicted for that tilt.

Add to that standout Carabao Cup wins against both Manchester clubs, plus a 4-1 demolition of PSG in the Champions League, and it’s easy to see why the Toon Army are starting to get giddy. They come into the round boasting a top-six spot but face another big test here against last year’s Premier League runners-up Arsenal, who are a team they’ve beaten just four times in their previous 45 attempts (D9, L32).

Player to watch: Miguel Almirón has netted the game’s opening goal in his last three goalscoring outings and will be looking for his first-ever strike against Arsenal.

Eddie Howe will be without Elliot Anderson (back), Harvey Barnes (ankle), Sven Botman (knee), Alexander Isak (groin), Javier Manquillo (groin), Lewis Miley (illness), Jacob Murphy (shoulder), and Sandro Tonali (suspension).

Arsenal (Form and News)

Newcastle finished the last round as the Premier League’s joint top-scorers, but that shouldn’t faze Arsenal who boast having shut out their North East opponents in 29 of those 45 aforementioned matches. That’s something they’ve also done to three of their past four PL opponents (W3, D1), including champions Manchester City. Another clean sheet here would preserve their unbeaten start to their top-flight campaign, as Mikel Arteta’s men look to embed themselves in the title race once again.

While the Arsenal defense is understandably attracting a lot of interest for this one, their attack shouldn’t be overlooked either given they have found the net in all but one of their last 17 away games. However, it should be highlighted that the Gunners’ traveling confidence may have taken a hit with both their competitive losses this season coming on the road, the most recent of which came this week with a 3-1 Carabao Cup defeat to West Ham. Still, the Gunners destroyed Sheffield United in the previous PL round. Check out what I predicted for that game.

Hot streak: Arsenal are unbeaten in the last 42 Premier League games in which they’ve scored first (W37, D5).

Player to watch: Martin Ødegaard scored in this fixture last season, kickstarting a run where four of his last six goals have come away from home.

Mikel Artera cannot count on Gabriel Jesus (muscle), Thomas Partey (muscle), Emile Smith Rowe (knee), and Jurrien Timber (knee).

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Newcastle vs Arsenal H2H Record

Over the last ten H2H encounters, Arsenal have been dominant. The Gunners won eight, while the Magpies celebrated a victory on two occasions, both at St. James' Park.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Odds

Newcastle are slight favorites here at +192; a draw is at +250, while Arsenal can be backed at +168. When it comes to goals, Over 2.5 is at -105, and Under is at +102. For both teams to score bettors, BTTS YES is at -135, and BTTS NO is at +125. Check out more Premier League odds here!

Newcastle vs Arsenal Betting Pick

This fixture failed to produce plenty of goals in the last few years. Namely, just two of the previous ten H2H duels produced Over 2.5 goals, while only one team managed to find the back of the net in that span! That said, this match is not very kind for Over bettors if we follow tradition, that is.

Still, I can’t ignore the fact that Arsenal conceded eight goals in the last six matches in all competitions. Also, Newcastle are joint top-scorers (Aston Villa) in the Premier League with 26 goals, which is 2.60 goals per match. The Magpies scored half of their PL goals at home, and even though Arsenal currently have the best road defense in the league (allowed two goals in four games), I am going with both teams to score here.