PSG vs AC Milan Prediction - Soccer Picks 10/25/23

PSG (1-0-1) vs AC Milan (0-2-0)

Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 3 pm (Parc des Princes)

PSG -138/AC Milan +375 - Over/Under: 2.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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One of the most interesting matches of Round 3 of the UEFA Champions League will be played on Wednesday, October 25, 2023, at Parc des Princes, when PSG welcome AC Milan. The Rossoneri (2 points) are still looking for the first goal in the competition, while the Saints (3 points) hope to bounce back from a heavy defeat to Newcastle in the previous round. Talking about Newcastle, here you can take a look at our Newcastle vs Dortmund prediction. This is our PSG vs AC Milan betting preview and prediction.

PSG (Form and News)

The 4-1 UEFA Champions League (UCL) defeat against Newcastle will weigh on PSG players’ minds as they step onto the Parc des Princes pitch to face AC Milan in this Round 3. Some felt that the loss was primarily attributed to the formation chosen by Luis Enrique, with only two central midfielders selected. Given that was a decision he did not repeat in the two subsequent Ligue 1 victories since, the latter of which was a 3-0 triumph here against Strasbourg this past weekend, it’s clearly a lesson learned for the PSG boss.

Despite PSG suffering their heaviest defeat in a UCL group stage under the Qatari ownership era last time out, they remain clear favorites for this clash, having lost only one of their previous 34 home group stage matches (W27, D6).

Hot stat: At least one penalty has been scored in nine of PSG's last eleven home UCL group stage matches.

Player to watch: PSG could rely on Kylian Mbappé to make an impact early in the game. He has scored six of his previous nine UCL home goals within the opening 25 minutes.

Head coach Luis Enrique will be without Presnel Kimpembe (convalescence), Nuno Mendes (muscle), and Sergio Rico (head). Marco Asensio is questionable with a foot injury.

AC Milan (Form and News)

No more than two goals were produced in six of AC Milan's last seven competitive outings. That streak continued with a 1-0 defeat against Juventus on Sunday, with coach Stefano Pioli stating after the game that his players were “never inferior at any point," as they fought with just 10 men for more than 50 minutes.

After starting their 2023/24 UCL campaign with two goalless draws, last season's semi-finalists need points, but only three goals scored across their previous eight outings in the competition does little to reassure their fans. Improvement in the final third is therefore expected if the Rossoneri are to enhance their record of only four wins in 15 away H2Hs against French opposition (D4, L7).

Player to watch: Milan will hope Christian Pulisic can find the net, given he has led his team to victory in his last ten goalscoring appearances, including four this term.

Stefano Pioli cannot count on Ismael Bennacer (knee), Mattia Caldara (ankle), Samuel Chukwueze (injury), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (muscle), and Marco Sportiello (calf).

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PSG vs AC Milan H2H Record

PSG and AC Milan have met on four occasions thus far. All four H2H meetings were in UCL, but the previous one was in 2001. Rossoneri are undefeated; they won two matches with a pair of draws.

PSG vs AC Milan Odds

PSG are -130favorites to get three points on Wednesday; a draw is ++300, while AC Milan can be found at +375. When it comes to goals, Over 2.5 is at -130, and Under 2.5 is at +114. For those who love betting on both teams to score market, BTTS YES is -137 and BTTS NO is +120. Take a look at more Champions League odds here.

PSG vs AC Milan Betting Pick

Even though PSG never beat AC Milan, I am leaning toward the hosts in this one. Still, I am not a big fan of the winner market, so I’ll stick to goals instead. I’m pretty sure Milan will be looking to leave Paris unbeaten and will focus more on defending their goal rather than scoring on the other end.

That was the case against Dortmund in Germany when Rossoneri kept Borussia from scoring. AC Milan allowed more than one goal just once in 11 matches this season and kept their net intact in three of the last four. PSG was rather efficient at home lately, having scored nine goals in three matches, but conceded none in return. I am going with a low-scoring affair.