Arsenal vs. Newcastle United 2/16/20 English Premier League Soccer Pick, Odds, and Prediction
2/16/20 11:30 am
Over 2.5 (-138), Under 2.5 (+110)
Arsenal is hosting Newcastle United at Emirates Stadium in round 26 of the English Premier League.
After a disastrous season and Arsenal firing their head coach, they are slowly improving under the new head coach Mikel Arteta. Arsenal hasn’t lost any of their last 7 games and is in 10th place in the EPL standings with only 31 points. Arsenal was inconsistent on both ends for most of the season in the EPL, but in the Europa League, Arsenal was like a completely different team and is one of the top favorites to win that competition. In their last EPL match against Burnley away from home, Arsenal had 58% of ball possession, 2 shots on goal, 7 corner kicks, and 81% of accurate passes. This wasn’t a particularly interesting match and it ended in a 0-0 draw. Arsenal has tied their last 4 games while scoring and conceding at least one goal in 3 of those 4 games. Aubameyang is Arsenal’s captain and leading goal scorer with 14 goals, while Lacazette scored 5 goals. Tierney, Chambers, Kolasinac, Nelson, and Soares are all injured and coach Arteta will not have them at his disposal. The good news for Arsenal is that the core of the team is healthy and ready to play, and I think this small break that we had early in February was good for Arsenal. The Europa League is Arsenal’s only chance of getting into the Champions League next season because they are pretty far from 4th place, and I believe that Arsenal will go all-in in the Europa League. There is a lot of talent in this Arsenal’s roster, now the only thing Arsenal needs are time because I think that Arteta is the right choice for this team.
Newcastle is playing in really good form and hasn’t lost any of their last 8 games, but they have only 3 wins during that stretch. This stretch has brought Newcastle to 12th place in the EPL with 31 points, something I wasn’t expecting at the beginning of the season because Newcastle wasn’t playing well. In their last EPL match, Newcastle was hosting Norwich City and has had 43% of ball possession, 5 shots on goal, 8 corner kicks, and 80% of the correct passes. There were a few good chances in this game, but unfortunately for all the fans, the game ended in a 0-0 draw. Newcastle hasn’t been good in the attacking end and has scored only 24 goals in 25 games, which an average of less than a goal per game. The defense has been solid for Newcastle and they kept the clean sheet in three of their last 5 games. Shelvey is Newcastle’s leading goal scorer with 5 goals, which is a problem because Shelvey is a defensive midfielder. Newcastle’s top 6 goal scorers this season are 2 midfielders and 4 defenders, as I said the big problem on the attacking end. It gets even worse for Newcastle because their locker room is basically the hospital. Colback, Muto, Maquillo, Gayle, Carrol, Dummet, Willems, Krafth, and Shelvey are all injured. Even though Newcastle is in 12th place, the relegation zone is only 7 points away and if they don’t keep their good form going, Newcastle could quickly drop in the EPL standings and find themselves fighting for their Premier League lives. Newcastle is also playing in the FA Cup where they will face WBA at the beginning of March.
Newcastle hasn’t won any of their last 3 games against Arsenal, and if not for all the injuries, I would give Newcastle a time of the day. With everything going on here, I think Arsenal gets a nice win at home.