Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid 2/14/20 Spanish LaLiga Soccer Pick, Odds, and Prediction
2/14/20 3 pm
Over 2.5 (+150), Under 2.5 (-188)
Valencia is welcoming Atletico Madrid to Mestalla in a derby match of round 24 of Spanish LaLiga.
Valencia has been playing solid soccer for most of the season, but they lost their last 2 games, one in Copa del Rey and one in LaLiga. Valencia is a good team that also got qualified to the Top 16 in the Champions League where they will face Atalanta, one of the best offensive teams in Serie A. With 37 points, 33 scored goals, and 32 conceded goals, Valencia is in 7th place in LaLiga standings. In their last LaLiga match against Getafe away from home, Valencia had only 47% of ball possession, 0 shots on goal, 0 corner kicks, and low 66% of the correct passes. Valencia has lost this match 3-0 against the team that is playing some of the best soccer in LaLiga right now. Of Valencia’s 33 scored goals so far, Gomez has scored 8, while Valencia’s captain Dani Parejo added 6 goals. Valencia’s bad form as of late is a product of a few important injuries on the defensive end where their starting goalkeeper Cillessen and starting central defender Garay are injured. Even before these injuries Valencia was thin and couldn’t get any consistency on the defensive end. Piccini and Vallejo are also injured. The good news for Valencia and their fans is that Valencia still hasn’t lost a game at home. There is still time for Valencia to climb the standings in LaLiga and to get to one of the spots that will take them to the European competitions, but for that to happen Valencia must start playing much better defense because they don’t have the offense to negate those conceded goals.
Atletico Madrid has finally won a game after 4 losses and a draw. That victory came against Granada last weekend at home. In that match, Atletico had 50% of ball possession, 3 shots on goal, 2 corner kicks, and 73% of accurate passes. This wasn’t a particularly good game for Atletico, but they were able to score one goal and win this match 1-0. I get that Granada is a decent team that can surprise anyone, but Atletico has much more quality and was playing at home, but their lack of offense is amazing. Atletico is in 4th place in LaLiga standings with 39 points, only 23 scored goals, and 15 conceded goals. In the Champions League, Atletico will face Liverpool, a team that is playing fantastic soccer and looks unstoppable. Morata has scored 7 goals for Atletico Madrid, while Correa added 4 goals. Injuries are the biggest problem for Atletico Madrid right now with Costa, Gimenez, Felix, Arias, Morata, Trippier all on the injury list. Herrera is still questionable. Atletico has so much quality on its roster, on both ends even though it seems they don’t. The problem is coaching and Atletico’s game style. I’m not saying that Diego Simeone is a bad coach because he created a team that can compete with Real Madrid and Barcelona in LaLiga, but with the offense this bad, there is no way Atletico will win anything. There have been a lot of rumors as of late that Atletico Madrid’s management is looking to part ways with Simeone after 10 years, and I think they should go for it. Ten years is a long time, and the team can’t focus only on defense in modern soccer.
Valencia hasn’t lost any of their last 10 home games, and despite losing their last two, I still think that Valencia is in a better form then Atletico Madrid. This game stinks of a draw, but with all the injuries on Atletico’s roster, I will side with Valencia at home.