Roma vs. Juventus 1/12/20 Italian Serie A Soccer Pick, Odds, and Prediction
1/12/20 2:45 pm
Over 2.5 (-138), Under 2.5 (+110)
Roma is hosting Juventus at Stadio Olimpico in another derby match of round 19 of Italian Serie A.
Roma has been playing great in November and December, but in their first match in the new year, Roma wasn’t playing well. In that match, Roma was playing against Torino at home and has had 58% of ball possession, 7 shots on goal, 14 corner kicks, and 82% of accurate passes. I know that just by looking at the stats it seems that Roma should have won this game easily, but the truth was the opposite. Roma was sloppy both on the attacking and defensive end and they lost this match 0-2. Roma is in 4th place in the Serie A standings with 35 points, 33 scored goals, and 19 conceded goals, but the competition is really fierce in Serie A this season. Dzeko has scored 7 goals for Roma this season and Kolarov added 5 goals. Lorenzo Pellegrini added 6 assists. Zappacosta, Pastore, Santon, and Mkhitaryan are all important players for coach Fonseca but they are all injured and will not be playing. Roma has qualified past the group stage in the Europa League and they will play against Gent in the first round of knockouts, a matchup that Roma should win. If Roma will be capable of keeping their form and consistency up, they will be one of the main favorites to win the Europa League. Judging by their last game against Torino, Roma is really missing their injured players and the depth on the bench and for that to change Roma must bring a few quality players in the January transfer window.
Juventus is playing good soccer right now and Ronaldo is finally waking up. Juventus is in second place in Serie A with 45 points, the same amount as Inter at the top but worse goal differential. In their last game in Serie A versus Cagliari, Juventus was fantastic with 64% of ball possession, 10 shots on goal, 3 corner kicks, and high 91% of the correct passes. It was a great game for Juventus and for Ronaldo who scored 3 goals and Juventus won 4-0. Ronaldo has scored 13 goals in 15 games for Juventus so far, while Higuain and Dybala each added 5 goals. Chiellini and Khedira are injured, while Bentancur is suspended due to the yellow cards. Juventus is 6-2-1 away from home so far this season with 13 scored goals and 8 conceded goals. Even though Juventus is in second place in Serie A, and still toe to toe with Inter, Juventus’ main focus this season is the Champions League. In the Champions League Top 16, Juventus will play against Lyon who is in the terrible form right now, and their morale is really low because of some issues inside the roster. I think that Juventus will win these two games easily and advance to quarterfinals. Juventus has a really good team with some fantastic, experienced players that were bought with the goal to win the Champions League, and coach Sarri who was brought with the same purpose. Sarri is known as a temperamental coach who always sticks to the same formation, but something that makes him different from most of the coach is that he is a great tactician in the knockout games which he proved with Chelsea last season when they won the Europa League. I don’t think that Juventus will defend the Serie A title, but they are certainly one of the favorites in the Champions League.
When playing at home, Roma has not lost to Juventus in their last 5 games, while Juventus hasn’t scored a goal in 2 of those 5 games. Juventus is the better team here and is playing in better form, but Juventus has conceded at least 1 goal in 3 of their last 4 games. Roma will be eager to bounce back after the unfortunate loss against Torino last week at home, but I’m not sure that Juventus is the right team for that.