Spal vs. AC Milan 7/1/20 Serie A Soccer Prediction and Picks
AC Milan (12-6-10) at Spal (5-3-20)
Serie A Soccer: Wednesday July 1, 2020 at 3:45 PM (Stadio Paolo Mazza)
The Line: Spal +495 / Draw +295 / AC Milan -170 -- O/U: 2.5
Spal play host to AC Milan in Serie A action from the Stadio Paolo Mazza on Wednesday afternoon.
Spal come into the match in last, tied with Brescia on 18 points with a record of 5 wins, 3 draws and 20 losses after a 3-1 loss to Napoli last time out. In the loss to Napoli, Spal fell behind after just four minutes but Andrea Petagna tied the game at one for Spal in the 29th. Napoli would retake the lead seven minutes later and almost took a 3-1 lead before the half, but VAR would overturn Napoli’s goal after offside was found in the buildup to the goal. Napoli wouldn’t be denied their third goal in the 78th minute and Spal wouldn’t be able to find an answer over the last ten plus minutes down the stretch, leaving the game empty-handed. Petagna leads Spal in scoring with 12 goals on the year while Etrit Berisha is Spal’s top goalkeeper, conceding 1.58 goals per 90 minutes with 3 clean sheets in 26 league appearances this season.
AC Milan on the other hand, come into the match in 7th place with a record of 12 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses after back-to-back wins following a 2-0 win over Roma in their last game. The first half was scoreless with one booking per side, and the tie held for the first half hour of the second half. Ante Rebic would give AC Milan the lead in the 76th minute and Hakan Calhanoglu would lock up the result for Milan with a 2nd goal from the penalty spot in the 89th minute, leaving AC Milan to grab all three points. Rebic leads AC Milan in scoring with 8 goals while Theo Hernandez has 5 goals on the year and Hakan Calhanogly has a team-high 3 assists this season. Gianluigi Donnarumma leads AC Milan in goal, conceding 1.13 goals per 90 minutes with 10 clean sheets in 26 league appearances this season.
I get why laying juice with AC Milan on the road isn’t the most ideal proposition, especially with Ibrahimovic missing this match for AC Milan with an injury. However, Milan’s simply the much better team, and Spal’s been the second-worst home team in Serie A this season, picking up just eight points from 13 matches and losing six straight games on their home ground. Four of the last six at home for Spal have been decided by one goal, but I think Milan wins this one by 2-0 or 3-1, so I’ll lay the -1 handicap with AC Milan here.