RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg 5/16/20 German Bundesliga Soccer Pick, Odds, and Prediction
SC Freiburg (10-6-9( at RB Leipzig (14-8-3)
Bundesliga Soccer: Saturday May 16, 2020 at 9:30 AM (Red Bull Arena)
The Line: RB Leipzig -320 / Draw +440 / SC Freiburg +850 -- O/U: 3
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We have Bundesliga soccer action on Saturday morning from Red Bull Arena in Leipzig as RB Leipzig host SC Freiburg.
RB Leipzig have their eyes set on multiple pieces of hardware returning from the break thanks to the Coronavirus Pandemic. The Red Bulls left off in 3rd place sitting on 50 points with a record of 14 wins, 8 draws and a league-low 3 losses, sitting 5 points off of Bayern Munich’s league-leading 55 points. Leipzig had to settle for back-to-back draws, including a scoreless draw against Wolfsburg before taking care of Tottenham in the Champions League. In the Wolfsburg match, Leipzig just couldn’t find the breakthrough despite owning 61% possession. Against Tottenham though, Marcel Sabitzer struck twice in 11 minutes to give the Red Bulls a 2-0 lead just 21 minutes into the match and RB Leipzig wouldn’t look back as Emil Forsberg added a 3rd goal late in the 2nd half to ice the win. Timo Werner leads Leipzig with 21 goals as well as coming in 2nd with 7 assists while Christopher Nkunku has a team-high 12 assists this season. Peter Gulacsi is Leipzig’s #1 goaltender with 0.83 goals conceded per 90 minutes and 8 clean sheets in the league this season.
SC Freiburg went into the unwanted break in 8th position, sitting tied on 36 points with VFL Wolfsburg with a record of 10 wins with 6 draws and 9 losses, sitting a single point back of Schalke for the last European qualifying spot awarded to Germany’s top soccer league this season. Freiburg capped things off with a 3-1 win over Union Berlin in their last league appearance. In the Union Berlin match, Roland Sallai opened the scoring with just over ten minutes to go in the 1st half before Christian Gunter doubled the lead with five minutes to go before the hour mark. Berlin pulled a goal back but Robin Koch restored the two-goal cushion late in the 2nd half as Freiburg scored on 3 of their 4 shots on goal in the win. Nils Petersen leads Freiburg in scoring with 8 goals this season while Christian Gunter has a team-high 5 assists.
Leipzig caught a bit of flack with fans as they appeared to take their eye off of the ball in their last couple of domestic games as the Red Bulls focused on their Champions League tie with Tottenham. However, the Champions League is up in the air for the time being, so I expect full focus to be in Freiburg here. Freiburg hasn’t been terrible on the road, and there won’t be spectators for Leipzig, but the Red Bulls have only lost once at home this season and I just think they know that building well and are more comfortable playing in it. Both teams could use the points as Freiburg is chasing Schalke for the last European spot available in the Bundesliga for Europa League qualifying, but the Red Bulls still have an outside chance at winning the league. Add in the fact that the home team’s won the last six head-to-head ties, and I think you have to lean Leipzig here and to negate the heavy juice, I’ll take the Red Bulls on the -1.5 handicap.