Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid 11/2/19 Spanish LaLiga Soccer Pick, Odds, and Prediction
11/02/19 1:30 pm
Over 2.5 (+150), Under 2.5 (-188)
Sevilla is hosting Atletico Madrid at Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan in a derby match of round 12 of Spanish LaLiga.
Sevilla has displayed some solid soccer in this season and is in the 5th place in the standings with 20 points. With only 1 loss in their last 7 games, Sevilla is looking great and is scoring a decent amount of goals. In their last match against Valencia earlier this week, Sevilla was a slightly better team with 55% of ball possession, 1 shot on goal, 1 corner kick, and 84% of correct passes. Sevilla has scored a leading goal in the last minute of the first half but Valencia was able to come back and the game ended in a 1-1 draw. Sevilla has a lot of good players like Hernandez, de Jong, Nolito, Lopes, Ocampos, Banega and El Haddadi but their defense is still a bit sloppy and Sevilla could use another experienced defender. Ocampos is the leading goalscorer with 4 goals for Sevilla and other strikers like Chicharito, de Jong, and Nolito are yet to get in a good form and catch up to him. Carrico and Gomez are two injured defenders that coach Lepotegui could use right now, but it's going to be a while before they are ready for competitive soccer. Last season Sevilla had some major struggles on the defensive end and because of that they ended up two spots lower in the standings than they were hoping for, but since the arrival of the coach Lepotegui, Sevilla has gained consistency on the defensive end and that will be important for them in a long run. Sevilla is also playing in the Europa League where they are at the top of their group with a maximum of 9 points.
Atletico Madrid has been sloppy for the last couple of games and their lack of the attacking imagination and goal chances is visible now. Atletico might score the first goal but they can't seem to stay focused when it's time to score another goal and finish the game calmly and their defense is not what it used to be with 2 of their best defenders being injured. In their last match in LaLiga against weak Alaves, Atletico 52% ball possession, 3 shots on goal, 1 corner kick, and 73% of correct passes. Morata did score a goal for Atletico to get them ahead and after that Atletico had 2 more great chances to finish this game with another goal, instead they conceded a goal because of sloppy defending and dropped 2 points. This game ended in a 1-1 draw. With only 11 scored goals in 11 matches, Atletico is one of the worst attacking teams in LaLiga and if they want to attack the title something will have to change soon. I'm not saying that Atletico doesn't have good offensive players, because they do, starting with Costa, Morata, Niguez, Correa and young star Joao Felix, but the attacking soccer is just not coach Simeone's style and is not planning on changing it. Morata is the top goalscorer for Atletico with 3 goals, while Vitolo, Costa, and Felix each added 2 goals. Injuries are the biggest problem for Atletico Madrid and coach Simeone right now and Savic and Gimenez who are their best defenders are injured and Felix who has been one of their best players is also injured. Atletico might have one of the top 3 goalkeepers in the world in Jan Oblak and can save a lot of chances and shots but the offense has to take some pressure off the defense and the goalkeeper by scoring more goal or Atletico won't come near the top of the standings anytime soon.
Sevilla is the slight favorite here and I can see why Atletico has lost only 1 match since May of this year and I think they are already overdue for a loss. With 2 of Atletico's best defenders injured and their lack of offense and goals, I will side with Sevilla here who is playing at home and is playing really good soccer.