Ruffolo's Tuesday MLB 5-Spot #4

New York Mets (47-27) vs Houston Astros (45-27)

Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:10 pm

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I get that this is a tempting price with the Mets at home, but the issue here is that as good as Carlos Carrasco’s been, going 8-3 on the year, including 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home, he was also just touched up for five runs in less than three innings against these same Astros in his last start and the damage could’ve been worse but Carrasco left the game early with back tightness so I’m concerned it could show up again here. I’m seeing conflicting reports of who the Astros are starting here, whether it’s Luis Garcia or Framber Valdez, but either way, I like the pitching matchup for Houston. Both Valdez and Garcia are pitching far better on the road as it is this season, with Valdez going 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across 50.2 innings and Garcia posting a 2.37 ERA on the road with a 1.05 WHIP of his own. The Astros are also playing with confidence after beating up on these Mets and battling hard to earn a split with the league-leading Yankees over the weekend and I think that confidence carries over to Tuesday’s matchup. Give me the Astros on the ML here.

Chris’s Pick Houston Astros: -120

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