Ruffolo's Friday MLB Pickoff Play

Seattle Mariners (18-27) vs Houston Astros (29-16)

Friday, May 27, 2022 at 9:40 pm

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Chris Flexen was a pitcher I made a killing backing last year, but now, the tables have turned and Flexen is burning a hole in bettor’s pockets this season. If you bet $100 on the Mariners in each of Flexen’s starts this year, you’re down $623, 4th worst among qualified starters. Not only that, but with Flexen this year, the Mariners are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Seattle is 1-7 as a team in Flexen’s 8 starts this year, and in those 7 losses, 5 have come by at least two runs and one of the one-run losses, most notably Flexen’s last start, saw the Mariners jump ahead 5-0 and still lose 6-5. The M’s have also been outscored 8-0 with a pair of 4-0 losses in Flexen’s two starts against Houston this year and one of those was opposite Justin Verlander, who gets the start for the Astros on Friday.

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Verlander hasn’t allowed a run in three consecutive starts spanning 19 innings of work, and has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his eight starts this year. That’s not good for Seattle who have given Flexen two runs of support or less in six of his starts this year. In case you couldn’t tell by now, I love the Astros -1.5 here.

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Chris’s Pick Houston Astros: -1.5 -119

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