Houston Texans (2-7) vs New England Patriots (4-5)

Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 1:00 pm

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At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  Last week, we played on both Houston and New England, and cashed each of them.  But, unlike New England, which won outright as a 7-point underdog vs. Baltimore, our win on Houston was most fortunate.  The Texans were a 4-point underdog, and down by 3 points with about a minute left in the game when Cleveland RB Nick Chubb scampered down the sideline for an apparent 60-yard TD run.  But instead of crossing the goal line for a 9-point Browns lead, Chubb chose to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line so the Texans could not get the ball back with 56 seconds left.  Of course it was technically a smart decision, even if Houston would have had much less than a 1% chance to score 10 points in 56 seconds.  But it was still unbelievably lucky, as not many in Chubb's shoes would have eschewed a 60-yard TD score.  Here, I don't think Houston will need such good fortune, as I believe they'll pull the upset over the Patriots as a home underdog.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NFL is to go against road favorites in non-division games after pulling off upset wins as an underdog of +5.5 (or more) points.  These road favorites generally suffer letdowns, as they've covered just 23% over the last 41 seasons.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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Al’s Pick Houston Texans: +2.5 -110

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