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Houston Texans (2-7) vs New England Patriots (4-5)
Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 1:00 pm
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England. Last week, we played on both Houston and New England, and cashed each of them. But, unlike New England, which won outright as a 7-point underdog vs. Baltimore, our win on Houston was most fortunate. The Texans were a 4-point underdog, and down by 3 points with about a minute left in the game when Cleveland RB Nick Chubb scampered down the sideline for an apparent 60-yard TD run. But instead of crossing the goal line for a 9-point Browns lead, Chubb chose to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line so the Texans could not get the ball back with 56 seconds left. Of course it was technically a smart decision, even if Houston would have had much less than a 1% chance to score 10 points in 56 seconds. But it was still unbelievably lucky, as not many in Chubb's shoes would have eschewed a 60-yard TD score. Here, I don't think Houston will need such good fortune, as I believe they'll pull the upset over the Patriots as a home underdog. One of the things I love to do when betting on the NFL is to go against road favorites in non-division games after pulling off upset wins as an underdog of +5.5 (or more) points. These road favorites generally suffer letdowns, as they've covered just 23% over the last 41 seasons. Take Houston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.