Dallas Cowboys (2-6) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0)

Sunday, November 08, 2020 at 4:25 pm

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At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the over in the Pittsburgh/Dallas game.  The Cowboys have the league's worst defense, as it's giving up more than 33 points per game.  It's true that Dallas only gave up 23 and 25 their last two games (vs. Washington and Philadelphia), but the Steelers should do better, as their offense produces north of 30 points per game.  I also expect Dallas to do better this week than it did last week behind rookie Ben DiNucci.  For this game, Dallas coach Mike McCarthy will start either Garrett Gilbert (6th round pick, 2014) or Cooper Rush (2017), both of whom have more NFL experience than DiNucci.  So, even though the Cowboys have been moribund on offense, with just 22 points scored over their previous three games, that doesn't necessarily portend a low-scoring game today.  One thing which will help is that Dallas is back home this afternoon.  This season, the Cowboys have averaged 31.2 ppg at home, but just 15 ppg on the road.  Not surprisingly, three of the Cowboys' four home games have gone over the total (compared to one of their four road games).  And, going back further, Dallas has played 14 of its last 20 home games over the total (compared to just nine of its last 25 road games).  Additionally, home teams that scored 25 or less combined points in their three previous games, all of which went under the total, have proceeded to go over in their next game 66% of the time since 1989.  And Dallas has gone 78-50 'over' at home when the line was greater than 38 and less than 45 points, including 8-1 OVER their last nine if they were off unders in each of their three previous games.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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Al’s Pick Over: 44 -104

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