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Los Angeles Dodgers (55-22) vs Tampa Bay Rays (51-28)

Tuesday, October 27, 2020 at 8:08 pm

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At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  This selection might be a surprise to many, given we had the Dodgers (at 4-1 odds) as our preseason pick to win the World Series.  But faithful followers know I'll always follow the numbers, and it's hard to bypass Tampa as an underdog tonight.  The Dodgers really needed a win in Game 5 behind Clayton Kershaw, and they got it.  Now they go into Game 6 tonight knowing that if they lose, they will still have RH ace Walker Buehler -- who was completely dominant in Game 3 -- available to start a Game 7.  They also likely will not use Julio Urias tonight so they can have their brilliant young southpaw available out of the bullpen, if needed, tomorrow.  So going opposite LH ace Blake Snell of the Rays tonight will be an assortment of pitchers beginning with RH Tony Gonsolin.  If they're to have a chance tonight, the Dodgers will need Gonsolin to step up.  After a regular season in which he posted a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts), Gonsolin has logged just an 0-2 record and 9.39 ERA in three post-season appearances.  After struggling against the Yankees, Snell has settled down and pitched very well in the ALCS, as well as in his only World Series start vs. L.A. in Game 2, a 6-4 Tampa victory.  That Game 2 was six days ago, so Snell and Gonsolin will be pitching with an extra day of rest.  That bodes well for Tampa tonight, as it's 36-19 (+11 games on the moneyline) behind Snell, when the southpaw was working with an extra day or two of rest (but a poor 26-33 otherwise (minus 12 games on the moneyline)).  The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been profitable vs. righties over the last three seasons, but NOT against lefties (91-62, minus 11 games on the moneyline).  In contrast, the Rays have been VERY profitable vs. righties (39-16, +19 games on the moneyline), but not against lefties (12-12, minus 5 games).  The Dodgers are 3-0 in this World Series in games started by Tampa righties, but 0-2 in the games started by Tampa southpaws.  Take the Rays to win Game 6.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  

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Al’s Pick Tampa Bay Rays: +125

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