Oregon Ducks (3-3) vs Montana Grizzlies (4-2)
Monday, November 29, 2021 at 10:00 pm
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Montana. Dana Altman's men were blitzed by #12-ranked Houston last week, 78-49, in the Maui Invitational, played in Las Vegas. The Cougars shot 51.7% from the floor, and that was the 3rd straight Division 1 opponent which has shot better than 50% vs. the Ducks. And, with its game against Division 2 Chaminade excepted, the Ducks have allowed their last three Division 1 foes to exceed the 50% shooting mark. The silver lining -- if there is one -- is that all of those games were away from home. At the Matthew Knight Arena, the Ducks have played much better, as they're 2-0 SU, with a +6.00 point spread differential (compared to a -19.62 point spread differential away from home). Likewise, tonight's opponent, Montana, has played much better this season at home, in the friendly confines of Dahlberg Arena, than outside Missoula. Indeed, we played on Montana at home this past Friday, and got the $$$ when they smashed Southern Miss, 74-62. The Grizzlies are now 4-0 SU, and 3-0 ATS at home this season, and have covered the spread by 5.83 ppg. But away from home, they are 0-2 ATS, and have a negative point spread differential of -17.25. Going back further, we find that the Grizzlies are 12-23 ATS their last 35 away from Dahlberg Arena, including 2-10 ATS as an underdog of 7+ points. Meanwhile, the Ducks are 97-9 SU and 63-34 ATS at home, including a perfect 5-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite off a loss, in non-conference games, and also 56-4 SU and 44-16 ATS when priced from -4 to -15 points. Take Oregon to blow out Montana. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.