LSU Tigers (4-5) vs Ole Miss Rebels (4-4)

Saturday, December 19, 2020 at 3:30 pm

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At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over LSU.  Last week, the Tigers upset then-No. 6-ranked Florida, 37-34.  And LSU was a 24-point underdog in that game!  Can Ed Orgeron's men make it two-upsets-in-a-row?  I wouldn't bet on it, as defending National Champions are a soft 96-126-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse, if our defending champs pulled off an upset in their previous game, then those teams are a woeful 4-12 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS if they weren't favored by 3+ points in the current game.  That doesn't bode well for LSU on Saturday afternoon.  Nor does the fact that College football home teams have covered just 10 of 35 games off an upset win, if they were an underdog of 20+ points in their previous game.  And LSU is a wallet-busting 2-11 ATS off a road upset win.  It's true that LSU has won the last four meetings by 21, 29, 16 and 17 points.  But Ole Miss is a solid 31-17-1 ATS when playing on the road with revenge vs. an opponent off a win.  And revenge-minded SEC Conference teams, with a .500 (or better) record, are 30-13 ATS as a favorite away from home, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -4.5 points.  Take Lane Kiffin's Rebels to blow out LSU.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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Al’s Pick Ole Miss Rebels: -1 -110

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