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Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-1) vs Tulane Green Wave (5-4)
Thursday, November 19, 2020 at 7:30 pm
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Tulane. Both of these teams enter tonight's game on win streaks. The Golden Hurricane have won all four of their games this season, including last week's comeback win over SMU (which we cashed). Similarly, Tulane is on a 3-game win streak, and has covered five in a row. But when one looks deeper within Tulane's set of games, what jumps out is that the Green Wave have won ALL FOUR of their games when they were favored (and have covered by an average of 25.6 ppg). But in their games as an underdog, they've lost ALL THREE games (and have failed to cover by an average of 1.3 ppg). Now, Tulane is back in the role of an underdog -- after winning and covering three straight as a favorite. And one of the things I love to do is fade such teams that have such of a "role reversal." Indeed, after three straight ATS wins as a favorite, teams installed as underdogs of +3 (or more) points have covered just 30 of 85 games away from home vs. conference foes. That doesn't bode well for the Green Wave tonight. Nor does the fact that Tulane is an awful 0-12 ATS on the road as an underdog of less than 8 points (or PK) off an ATS win. Take Tulsa minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.