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San Francisco 49ers (2-2) vs Miami Dolphins (1-3)

Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 4:05 pm

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It appears Jimmy Garoppolo is good to go. The road team is a combined 7-1 SU in the games of the two teams. But let me repeat, splits not only almost never hold up, but also they are great fades or more accurately betting the outliers will level off. One angle says when oddsmakers are expecting a blowout in a game in which SU splits would suggest otherwise is 104-62-2. A similar one, but not with totally overlapping games is 92-57-4 anti-splits. Going with the much better yards per play offense is 124-84-3. This is also a very strong contrarian bet, which is rare for chalks. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Niners covering 60 percent, with average margin of victory 13.

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Joe’s Pick San Francisco 49ers: -8 -105

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