When each team exceeds the total by a large margin the previous game, it goes over at 60.4 percent rate. This holds up in playoffs and same series. Yes, we know the last game went into OT and screwed us. However playoff games under said parameter off OT game goes over 66.7 percent of time. Not totally overlapping is when playoff game goes well over total, the next game in the series goes over 37-14 for 72.5 percent, only a mild dropoff to 69.2 percent when off OT.
One of the two elite simulation models has this game going over 65 percent of the time.
Joe Duffy is the leading handicapper of advanced analytics, exploiting statistically significant computer systems and betting formulas. he has been handicapping sports literally since childhood. A native of suburban Philadelphia, he became spellbound
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