Portugal - Primeira Liga Pick

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Portugal - Primeira Liga

Monday, July 13, 2020 at 4:15 pm

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Famalicao will head to Vitoria Setubal after a 1-1 draw against Benfica. They've been a little inconsistent since the restart of the season with a win against FC Porto and a loss to Portimonense but I'll take their inconsistencies over Setubal's consistently bad play. Those inconsistencies are also giving us a very good price in this mismatch. Setubal's now lost 5 in a row and haven't won any of their last 13 games. They'll be fighting to avoid relegation but Silvio and Jorge will be suspended for this one and they've really looked horrible lately. Famalicao is in 6th place right now but they're just 1 point behind Rio Ave for that 5th spot which would qualify them for the Europa League. With only 3 games left to play in the season, they really can't afford to leave any points on the pitch. They won this matchup 3-0 when they met in January and should get the job done again given Setubal's current form. I don't have much doubt that they'll win this match but I think there's a lot more value in laying a little bit of juice and taking them -0.25 to push half our bet in case this match ends in a draw. If your book doesn't offer that line you can bet half a unit on the moneyline (+116) and to win half a unit on the PK (Draw No Bet) (-175). Let's go with Familicao on the -0.25 Asian Handicap at -113.

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Albert’s Pick Famalicao -0.25 -113

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