NBA Totals Smash

NBA Totals Smash Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Clippers (52-25) at Dallas Mavericks (45-35)

Thursday, August 27, 2020 at 9:00 pm

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There is alot of recency bias is attached to this Totals number, which has made it a bit bloated which gives me confidence in my projections that make this number closer to 232 which gives us value with an under wager. 

LA CLIPPERS are 30-13 UNDER  in non home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.1 ppg. DALLAS is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. 

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NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 103-49 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 40-10 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 39-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for. a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 66-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

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Alex’s Pick Under: 238 -110

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