MLB Best Bet

Boston Red Sox (33-34) vs Philadelphia Phillies (46-20)

Thursday, June 13, 2024 at 7:10 pm

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BoSox starter Houck is having an outstanding run in Boston's rotation, pitching at least six innings in four straight outings while allowing just four total runs in that span. However, despite of his current form my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest Houck does not matchup well vs this explosive Phillies offense and regression is on deck. 

Philadelphia will counter with fellow righty Aaron Nola (8-2, 2.77 ERA). The Phillies are 11-2 in Nola's starts this season.

Phillies starter NOLA is 9-1 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

HOUCK is 4-14  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) HOUCK is 4-14 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

PHILADELPHIA is 31-12  against the money line in night games this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-1  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. PHILADELPHIA is 13-2  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. PHILADELPHIA is 14-3  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are 36-11 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on Philadelphia to win 

Alex’s Pick Philadelphia Phillies: -118

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