MLB- Best Bet Total

Miami Marlins (10-31) vs Philadelphia Phillies (28-12)

Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 1:40 pm

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MIAMI in 25 games against right-handed starters this season like the Phillies starter Wheeler have scored an average of 4.2 rpg with a combined score of 9.8 rpg scored. Miami has done their best work against right handed starters this season and Im betting they have enough success offensivley to help us get over this offering. Meanwhile, the Marlins starter was recently activated from the injury list, and despite of being fresh is still getting back into form. The Phillies explosvie offense will be a formidable challenge for the former first round draft pick. My overall projections estimate a combined score closer to 8 thus giving is a full 1 run value edge to the over. GARRETT is 2-2 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.67 and a WHIP of 1.519. In his last two starts last season vs the Phillies 9 and 8 runs were scored by his opponent and he lasted only 3 and 5 innings in those tilts.

MIAMI is 14-4 OVER in home games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11,7 rpg scored. MIAMI in 33 games when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season have seen a combined average of 9.7 rpg scored. MIAMI in 11 home games in day games this season have seen a combined average of +21. rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 or less (MIAMI) - with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 29-7 OVER L/27 seasons for. a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Marlins have gone over in 6 of their L7 overall. Phillies have gone over in 5 of their L/7 overall.

Play over

Alex’s Pick Over: 7 -115

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