NBA Finals Game 6 MONEYMAKER
Miami Heat (57-35) vs Los Angeles Lakers (67-23)
Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 7:30 pm
*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers missed a chance to finish off the Miami Heat in Game 5 on Friday night.
The Lakers also failed to win that game despite some red hot shooting from beyond the arc from LeBron James. James is only a mediocre 3 point shooter (he's great at everything else), but he was 6/9 from long range on Friday night. The Lakers were shooting 56% from the floor in the middle of the third quarter in game five. The game did slow down and it narrowly edged over the total because of 17 points in the last 1:52 of the contest in Game 5.
Miami and Los Angeles combined to average 1.17 points per possession in Game 5, which is far above their season averages. Both teams shot the ball really well from the floor. The teams also combined to shoot a sizzling 91% from the free throw line. The 39 points from the charity stripe were key in sending the game just over the posted total.
The under has been great bet in the long run in close out games in the NBA playoffs. The pace tends to slow and the defenses lock in even more.
The average pace in games 4 and 5 has been 92.75 possessions. If game 6 has 93 possessions, the teams could average 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and it still stays under this total. For the season as a whole, both of these teams averaged a tick under 1.12 points per possession.
Since there is so much on the line and the shooting numbers were clearly above average in Game 5, I'm going to side with the under here in Game 6.
If both teams shoot the lights out it will lose, but history is on our side and the line value is there.
Take the under.