Utah Jazz (47-31) at Denver Nuggets (49-30)
Tuesday, September 01, 2020 at 8:30 pm
*4 Star Play Under* I don't really want to have to play this game since I just lost the under in game six due to some unreal shooting by Murray and Mitchell and the teams overall, but I have to in this spot.
This is a spot where I have made a lot of money through the years. Game 7- everything on the line for both teams. There is a lot of pressure on each side, and the pace usually slows down a bit. On average, the shooting percentages are usually a little lower as well.
In the first six games of this series- the average pace has been 93.5 possessions per game. That is the slowest pace of any playoff series so far. Both teams have just been shooting lights out. These teams both averaged 1.12 points per possession in the regular season. They are averaging 1.25 points per possession and 1.21 points per possession in this series. In game six, they combined to shoot 36/72 from 3 point range.
If the teams just shot their season average (1.12)- this total would come in around 209. If both teams shoot lights out again we'll lose this play, but there are too many long term systems and angles pointing toward an under here for me to pass it up.
Look for both defenses to look a little better and the pace to be slow here.
Take the under.