Houston Rockets (40-24) at Dallas Mavericks (40-27)
*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets have played twice this year. The first game was a 137-123 contest. The second meeting was a 128-121 final. The posted total in the first game was 230 points. The posted total in the second game was 237-238 points depending on the sportsbook. Here, we have a total of 8 or 9 points lower than that despite the fact that both games sailed over the posted total.
This is a neutral court and that accounts for a move down in the total to a degree, but it can't be adjusted by 8 or 9 points. These are the top two efficiency offenses in the NBA. The two teams both rank just below average in defensive efficiency.
Both teams have shot the ball pretty well in their exhibition games here at Disney. The Rockets make a living at the line as well.
I don't generally like to bet many overs on neutral courts, but this is a huge adjustment. The sharp money is on the over here, and I agree.
Take the over.