Cincinnati Reds (31-29) at Atlanta Braves (35-25)
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 12:00 pm
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Trevor Bauer has been one of the top two or three pitchers in baseball this year. If you are going to give me one of the best pitchers in baseball at a nice plus money price, I have to at least consider it.
Max Fried starts for the Braves, and Fried has actually been dealing with an ankle injury. He's off his normal rest time, and he still isn't 100 percent healthy.
Bauer has a 1.73 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, and a 3.26 xFIP. Fried has a 2.25 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, and a mediocre 4.05 xFIP. Fried is definitely a quality pitcher, but he isn't on Bauer's level.
The Braves have a clear advantage offensively, but it isn't big enough to have them favored by this kind of number against an elite starting pitcher.
Additionally, the Reds come into this game with a lot of momentum. Cincinnati underachieved for much of the season, but finished the year playing very well. Atlanta is more banged up than is Cincinnati.
I'll take the plus price.