Northwestern Wildcats (5-1) vs Illinois Fighting Illini (2-4)
Saturday, December 12, 2020 at 12:00 pm
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of the WEEK* The posted total in this game is set at 40.5 points. If you are going to give me two touchdowns or more with a total set that low, I have to take a long hard look.
The total has been bet down by about 5 points, but the spread has actually gone up. The total has been bet down so much because of the weather forecast here.
The weather is calling for rain possibly mixing with snow and winds of 20-30 mph during this one. Who does that help here? It should help Illinois. The Fighting Illini can't throw the football regardless, but they have a good running game. Illinois is averaging 4.96 yards per carry on the year which is 33rd best in the nation. Northwestern is allowing 3.67 ypc which is 34th best in the country. Northwestern's secondary is elite against the pass, but Illinois isn't likely to be throwing it here.
Northwestern's offense looked good against Maryland in week one, and they have been terrible ever since. Northwestern has picked up 317 yards or less of total offense in five straight games. They are averaging a very weak 4.36 yards per play on the season (125th in the country).
Northwestern is 8-16 in their last 24 as a double digit favorite. They are already in the Big Ten title game against Ohio State. If they actually get ahead by a solid margin late, we might see the backups more than normal.
Grab the points.