Colorado Avalanche (71-21-8) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (64-29-10)
Friday, June 24, 2022 at 8:00 pm
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday.
We finally saw an 'under' result in this series in Game 4 as the Avalanche rallied twice from one-goal deficits to defeat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime, pushing them to the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5 on Friday. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Note that low-scoring games tend to come in bunches for the Lightning, with the 'under' going 28-19 with Tampa Bay coming off an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 20-8 the last 28 times the Bolts laced them up for Game 5 of a playoff series, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average. The Avs are of course known for their explosive offense but it's worth noting they've been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Remember, they shut out the Lightning the last time these two met in Denver in Game 2. Tampa Bay has done a much better job of containing the Avs offense over the last two games, allowing only four goals in regulation time. While home ice certainly made a different, here, we'll note that the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons (14-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*).