San Diego Padres (28-16) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (18-25)

Friday, May 27, 2022 at 9:40 pm

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My selection is on San Diego over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Pirates just took two of three games from the Rockies prior to yesterday's off-day. That series came at home, however, where Pittsburgh has recorded 11 of its 18 victories this season. The Buccos are just 7-11 on the road, averaging a miserable 2.9 runs per game. Worse still, in their first road game following a homestand this season they've lost 6-1 in Milwaukee, 3-2 in Detroit and 9-0 in Chicago (against the Cubs) - an awful 0-3 while being outscored by a 18-3 margin. The Padres aren't likely to take it easy on them here, not after dropping consecutive low-scoring games against the Brewers earlier this week. Prior to that they had won five games in a row. Here, we'll note that San Diego is an exceptional 12-3 after scoring two runs or less in its previous game this season, outscoring opponents by 2.1 runs on average in that situation. Better still, the Pads' are 18-5 after being held to three runs or less in three straight games over the last two seasons, averaging 5.0 runs per game while outscoring the opposition by 1.4 runs on average in that situation. Pirates starter Jose Quintana is coming off his worst start of the season and his lone previous start here at Petco Park was not a good one as he was tagged for six runs, four of them earned, on seven hits over just three innings back in 2019. Padres starter Sean Manaea has shown the ability to work deep into games, lasting at least six innings in seven of his eight starts this season. He's shown a strong day-night dichotomy in his starts this season, faring much better under the lights with a 3.13 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. Add in the Padres bullpen edge (they've posted a 3.15 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown at home this season) and I believe they might just be undervalued, even at a fairly steep price on paper on Friday night. Take San Diego (7*).

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Sean’s Pick San Diego Padres: -200

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