12-1-1 L2 WEEKS! 10* CFB THURSDAY NIGHT O/U ROUT [234-181/33-9 RUN]

Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) vs Marshall Thundering Herd (2-1)

Thursday, September 23, 2021 at 7:30 pm

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My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring performances last week, albeit in very different circumstances. Marshall put up 38 points but inexplicably coughed up a fourth quarter lead in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State rolled to a 44-10 rout of FCS squad Elon. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers do battle in a rematch of last year's 17-7 Marshall victory. Marshall benefited from a number of East Carolina defensive breakdowns last week, something they're not likely to see against an absolutely loaded Appalachian State defense that is strong from the back-end in. While it was up against an inferior opponents in Elon, Appalachian State didn't allow a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter in last Saturday's game - when proceedings were already well in hand up 27-3. More impressively, two weeks ago the Mountaineers gave up a touchdown midway through the first quarter on the road against Miami, but then held the Hurricanes out of the end zone until early in the third quarter and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the game. How about against aforementioned East Carolina? Back in Week 1, Appalachian State allowed a touchdown five minutes into the game but not another until the score was 33-12 with just over two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. You get my point. With revenge on their minds, you can be sure the Mountaineers will be eager to erase the memory of last year's 17-7 loss to Marshall and once again keep the Thundering Herd offense under wraps. On the flip side, I don't believe Marshall is as bad defensively as it showed in last week's loss to ECU. As I've noted on more than one occasion on Twitter this fall, the Pirates are a team well-suited to playing from behind with a risk-taking QB in Holton Ahlers and a receiving corps that can stretch the field. The Thundering Herd got caught flat-footed in the fourth quarter of that game - plain and simple. Prior to that loss, Marshall had given up just two touchdowns through its first two games, with both of those coming in lopsided affairs. Like Appalachian State, Marshall is loaded on the defensive side of the football. The quick turnaround here affords it the opportunity to quickly erase the memory of that blown opportunity against ECU. The Mountaineers, while talented on offense, haven't proven to be all that explosive. Note that even against Elon last week, they took nearly 10 minutes to score their first points of the game. After that they didn't reach the end zone again until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Miami they scored a touchdown around 10 minutes into the game but then didn't produce another offensive touchdown (they did have a second quarter kick return touchdown) until less than six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. It's not as if they were up against an elite Miami defense either. Despite that, I'm confident we'll see Marshall make an effort to grind out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this game, noting that it has committed a whopping three turnovers in all three games so far this season. Against an opportunistic Appalachian State defense it can ill afford to cough the ball up and give the Mountaineers offense any free drives (or short field position). Last Thursday night we saw a wild, high-scoring affair between Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette (we won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that game) but I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*).

Sean’s Pick Under: 58.5 -110

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