JEFF'S 100% (8-0 ATS) NFL PERFECT PLAY

Since 2003, road underdogs are a profitable 13-6 ATS in the playoffs versus divisional opponents, outperforming the point spread by an average margin of +6.0 points per game. New England head coach Bill Belichick is 27-15-2 ATS as a road underdog since 2003, including a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog off a loss. Since arriving in New England, Belichick has taken the Patriots to the postseason eighteen times, winning at least one game in fourteen of those appearances. Road teams in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are an impressive 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS over the last four seasons. The point spread in this game is inflated in light of the fact that very little separates these teams from an analytical standpoint. Both teams are ranked in the top-10 in offensive and defensive expected points added per play, and both finished the regular season ranked #1 and #2 in the NFL in point differential (+194 and +159). Buffalo will struggle to move the ball through the air against a New England pass defense that ranked as one of the league's best in Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade (No. 3), EPA allowed per pass play (No. 5), yards per attempt (No. 4) and explosive pass rate (No. 6). Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen completed just 49.3% of his pass attempts in the final two games of the regular season and owns the second-worst completion percentage in freezing game temperatures over the past fifteen seasons (50%). Let's also note that Buffalo's wide receivers are ranked 16th in drop rate, 19th in yards per route run and 22nd in yards after the catch. Grab the inflated number with New England and invest with confidence.

AUTHOR: Jeff Kiem

Jeff Keim has received 73 distinguished awards in football, basketball, baseball and hockey, including 15 handicapping championships and 53 Top 5 finishes. Jeff has been featured in some of the top media outlets in the nation, including ESPN.