JEFF'S NCAA FOOTBALL OFF SHORE STEAM PLAY

Duke Blue Devils (1-1) vs Northwestern Wildcats (1-1)

Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 4:00 pm

Click Here for the Latest Odds

My math model only favors Northwestern by 1.37 points in this game and the Wildcats are the least experienced team in the country. Northwestern is ranked 129th in returning production at just 39%, including 32% on the defensive side of the ball. Northwestern has to replace its starting quarterback, top four receivers, top two linebackers and three of its four defensive backs. Over the last eight years, 74 teams have had at least six fewer returning starters than the previous season, and only thirteen improved their winning percentage. More importantly, these declined by 4.7% against-the-spread. 137 teams in the last eight seasons returned ten or fewer starters and only 26 have improved their winning percentage. The combined record of these inexperienced squads is 757-883 ATS (46.1%). Teams that were 66.7% or better ATS the prior season, returned six or fewer offensive starters and had a new quarterback declined by an average of 17.9% ATS since 2010. The Wildcats also replaced its long-time defensive coordinator, Mike Hankwitz, who retired after thirteen years. In his final year guiding Northwestern's defense, the Wildcats finished ranked third in defensive S&P and fifth in passing success rate. The loss of Hankwitz and its negative consequences for Northwestern's inexperienced defense cannot be overstated. With only four starters back on defense, Northwestern's stop unit is projected to be significantly worse this season than in 2020, where it allowed just 15.9 points per game and was 1.5 yards per play better than average. Through two games this season, the Wildcats are allowing 6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yards per play. Duke possesses a very strong rushing attack behind explosive backs Mataeo Durant and Jordan Waters and a veteran offensive line that returned four starters from last year. Quarterback Gunnar Holmberg has six of his top 8 targets back and should have success moving the chains through the air in this game. Northwestern's offense is expected to be below average for the eighth consecutive season and now faces a Duke defense that has been 0.7 yards per play better than average through two games (I projected the Blue Devils' stop unit to be 0.5 yards per play worse than average entering the season). I really like what fourth-year defensive coordinator Ben Albert is doing with this group and the Wildcats' anemic attack does not pose a threat through the air (0.4 yards per pass play worse than average in 2020). Let's also note that three Northwestern wide receivers are currently listed as questionable to play on Saturday, including No. 2 receiver Bryce Kirtz. Duke is also inexperienced with twelve returning starters but the Blue Devils are undervalued in the betting market this season due to their miserable 2020 campaign (2-9). Duke's record was driven by a preposterous minus-19-turnover margin and turnovers usually regress to the mean year after year (should have been minus-7.8). Fourteen-year head coach David Cutcliffe always seems to outperform expectations and possesses the best special teams unit in the ACC, which could be enough to win this game outright. Grab the points with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.

Jeff’s Pick Duke Blue Devils: +3 -125

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.

Dismiss