Memphis Tigers (2-0) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0)
Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 4:00 pm
My math model actually favors Memphis in this game and the Tigers apply to a very strong 28-6 ATS momentum system of mine that invests on certain home teams off back-to-back games in which they averaged 6.75 yards per play or more and return eight or more defensive starters. Mississippi State enters year two under head coach Mike Leach after finishing 4-7 last season. The Bulldogs' offense averaged just 19.1 points in their final ten games as the players struggled to grasp Leach's pass-heavy schemes. The Bulldogs welcome back sixteen starters (67th in returning production, 77%), but only 62% of last year's offense is back for the 2021 campaign. Freshman quarterback Will Rogers is ranked 48th in the nation in passing efficiency (148.20), 73rd in yards per pass attempt (6.92), and is working behind an offensive line that lost 66 career starts (two starters). In contrast, Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan is ranked 15th (181.67) in passing efficiency and 9th in yards per pass attempt (10.49). Mississippi State's ground attack is non-existent as the Bulldogs are averaging just 44 rushing yards per game at 2.6 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow 3.2 yards per rush attempt to a mediocre offense. Conversely, Memphis is averaging 292 rushing yards per game at 6.5 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow just 5.2 yards per rush play. The Tigers finished ranked 52nd in defensive S&P last season and further improvement is likely in 2021. Memphis returns its entire linebacking corps, four defensive linemen with starting experience and seven defensive backs with starting experience. Safeties Quindell Johnson and Rodney Owens form one of the best duos in the country, while senior linebacker Thomas Pickens is having another strong season (#2 tackler). Second-year head coach Ryan Silverfield has recruited well and added a plethora of talent through the transfer portal. Coordinators Kevin Johns (offense) and Mike MacIntrye (defense) will help Silverfield keep the program where it was left by Mike Norvell. The Tigers enjoyed their first three ranked finishes in school history during Norvell's tenure and I expect more accolades under the current coaching staff. From a technical standpoint, Memphis is a profitable 9-3 ATS versus .501 or better SEC opposition, including 6-1 ATS at home. College football home underdogs in Game Three of the season that scored 40 or more points in back-to-back wins are 13-2 ATS since 1991. Since 2000, undefeated college football home underdogs off a bowl appearance are 43-18 ATS versus undefeated foes that are allowing 13.0 or more points per game, including 31-10 ATS teams entering off consecutive wins. If our 'play on' team has won 22 or more of their previous 32 home games, they improve to 13-1 ATS. Grab the points with the better team and invest with confidence.