Air Force Falcons (2-0) vs Utah State Aggies (2-0)
Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 7:30 pm
Air Force is one of the least experienced teams in the FBS, which is not unusual for service academies. The Falcons are ranked 112th in the nation in returning production (63%) and enter off an emotional win over Navy on 9-11. The biggest issue facing Air Force is its offensive line, which suffered attrition following the 2020 campaign. Six linemen with at least 101 snaps are gone and it will be nearly impossible for the Falcons to match last year's output (5th in offensive success rate). Utah State made a solid hire in new head coach Blake Anderson, who went 51-37 with six bowl games in seven seasons with Arkansas State. Anderson brought his starting quarterback (Logan Bonner) and leading wide receiver Brandon Bowling with him from Arkansas State, and further added talent via the transfer portal. For instance, Oregon State transfer Calvin Tyler Jr. leads the team in rushing yards (156 at 5.6 yards per carry). Bonner's familiarity with Anderson's offensive schemes has paid immediate dividends as he's 38-of-57 for 533 yards (66.7%) at 9.4 yards per pass attempt this season. The Aggies' defense is anchored by one of the conference's best linebacking corps consisting of six of last year's top seven tacklers, and Anderson added former Fresno State and Arkansas State linebacker Justin Rice, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions. Both sides of the ball are significantly improved this season and the Aggies will have one of the nation's best special teams units behind coordinator Nick Paremski. Placekicker Connor Coles has yet to miss a field goal (5-for-5) or extra point (7-for-7), while senior wide receiver Savon Scarver is one of the most dynamic kick returners in the Mountain West Conference. My math model only favors Air Force by 4.23 points in this game and Andersen is familiar with defending the triple-option as he faced Georgia Southern's option attack during his stint with Arkansas State. Grab the points with Utah State and invest with confidence.