Sports Betting Picks Podcast 10/17/21 NFL Week 6 Predictions Props & Parlays - Betting Advice
Sports Betting Picks Podcast 10/17/21 NFL Week 6 Predictions Props & Parlays - Betting Advice
Mitch Wilson (0s):Mitch from Pick Dawgz dot com here with Jo Madden. It is your NFL show. Of course, we do this every single Sunday for years, right. We've been doing it. And of course got tons of cappers with us today. I was just telling Joe it's my first of a half dozen shows I do with her on Sunday. It's a lot of Jo, but it's good. I mean, there were, there are a lot worse places you can be. I'm sure you guys are all shedding a tear for me out there to six shows with Joe today. But Joe, how's it going this morning?
Jo Madden (34s):It is good. I'm excited for the six shows with you, Mitch. It's not, there's no cyanide later. It's going to be a great day.
Mitch Wilson (41s):I like to call it. I like to call it a half dozen. You know, it's like, you just call it what it is, you know, doesn't shows. But you know, we do Joe and I do. We had a number on what was it? So we do six on Sunday. We do two. No, we do 1, 2, 3, 4 on Monday. So that's 10. And then at least two a day, at least three, three on all the four day. It's like, oh man, well, like I said, a lot worse places, you know, th that I could be live in Maui and get to do shows with Jo Madden all day.
Mitch Wilson (1m 23s):I'm sure you guys feel, don't worry. Stop worrying about me. Just stop, stop worrying about me, but got NFL actions. They were already underway in London. You know, my, I picked the Jaguars to not win a game all season long, and they're definitely doing their best to keep that prediction alive. They are absolutely horrid. And the dolphins is clearly a different team with two in, at quarterback it's night and day. And you know, I, I still have hopes for this guy. I, I know that a lot of people are down on him, but, you know, we saw him take really big strides in the preseason. And of course this year he's been injured.
Mitch Wilson (2m 5s):So it's, it's been tough to tough to tell exactly what he did, but when he has been in there, he hasn't been bad. The guy can make all the throws. He's a lot more mobile than, than people give him credit for it. We've seen that already in this game and the dolphins missing two of their top wide receivers in here, but no problemo, as you know, everybody else kind of picking up the slack here. So, you know, it's, I don't, I don't love these London games. They start at three 30 in the morning for me. I know that all of Hawaii is up and you know, quite frankly, I'm up, I'm up anyway. So I mean, all of Hawaii is up because two is playing and the two is in, they're all playing.
Mitch Wilson (2m 45s):So, you know, pretty exciting stuff for us here. It's, it's a weird thing. Hawaiian sports, whenever there's a player that was born in Hawaii, that plays in a professional game, they basically preempt all programming to, to show their a bats like Marcus Mariota has completed six consecutive passes. You know, it's like seriously comes across the bottom of the TV set. It's that big, it's almost like a surfing contest. It's almost as bad as like they'll show like of, of a, of a major league baseball game. Like the major league baseball playoffs for the night will be caught and Wong at batch. That's it really? Yeah.
Mitch Wilson (3m 25s):That's the only usually baseball coverage it'll show is like at bat.
Jo Madden (3m 30s):It's it's
Mitch Wilson (3m 30s):Crazy. Yeah. It's, they're really, you know, they love the locals here and that's the way that it is. But of course we love our guests that we have every week here on the show and we have a good roster today. I'm looking in the, I dunno, Tony T calls it the green room, so I don't want to steal his name. I'm looking at it. I'm looking, I'm looking in the green room and I see, I see rod Jovan. I see Al Ninos in there. I see Joe and Dionne. See Chris Ruffolo. I see Ron Romanelli and Bet LA
Jo Madden (4m 9s):And we know Big Al McMordie is going to slide into that green room. Anytime. Now
Mitch Wilson (4m 13s):She just shows up, But you guys can, let's see what we got. So
Jo Madden (4m 21s):Now we've got a great line of, it's going to be a lot of fun today. James Clark,
Mitch Wilson (4m 26s):James Clark couldn't make it today. But like I said, we got plenty of people that can, so we're excited for it. You know, how about yesterday's college football action? It was, it was an interesting day. I started off the day gangbusters and I really ended the night just horribly. I just could not get anything going. I had Liberty 32 point favorites. They lost outright in that game against Louisiana Monroe. And that
Jo Madden (4m 53s):Kind of believe what I saw in that game.
Mitch Wilson (4m 56s):They had opportunity after opportunity, after opportunity to score touchdowns, they walked with nothing every single time. And then, then they started to turn over thing. You know, when we start turning the ball over in your own end, you can't win at that level and it's going to happen. Thankfully it only counts as one loss. It's not like I played them on the money line or something. So I know I'm sure there's some people out there that did, but
Jo Madden (5m 23s):State sheriff felt like a double loss last night, going to bed, seeing them up and then waking up to a loss. I could not.
Mitch Wilson (5m 32s):No, it's like, so let's bring in Joe and Dionne. So, you know, yeah. It was just, it was just one of those days. It was like, so the sharps got pummeled out of the gate. They Indiana was like the sharp play of the day. Right. Cause there was so much smarter than everybody and they just got, I mean, they were lucky to be in that game. Right. I mean, they, it was all Michigan state from star. It was a physical beat down. Right. But it was like, they just kept hanging around and hanging around, hanging around and Michigan state was just basically keeping them in the game. And then there was like, you know, these bad pass interference they did down by the goal line. There was no way that was going to be a complete pass. They extended the drive. They ended up getting a touchdown on that one.
Mitch Wilson (6m 12s):But, and then the sharps, they kind of got, even with Purdue later on in the day, you know, on that one. So it was kinda one of those days, but yeah, I don't, I'm not a big believer in the sharp money moves or any of that stuff. I think, you know what we see transpiring on the field, I'm sure the sharps loved the Jaguars here and then they're getting crushed, right? I mean, they're just getting destroyed and it's this, this is going to be a fun half-time because I already have a very big bet on the dolphins and I extended the line out. So I'm going to really make a lot of money here during the show, which is always fun. But Joe Dionne welcome to the show as always know, you know, I know he had some dog issues. We're glad that it all worked out for pie gal and you know, what do you need a marble or something?
Joe D'AMico (6m 59s):No, you know, we were just like you and showing a lot of the other people on the panel. Maybe that's how we all got together. It's cause we're all dog lovers. One of our dogs was I had a little issue the other night with Dionne and I were working she's in the office next to me, PI gal, which our dogs are named after gambling. We got pied out dice, teaser and Keno PI gal. I got up to go get a drink of water. And this is like at eight 30 at night. And PI gal got up and she was a little laying on one of her posts. I just thought that maybe she was tired or whatnot, or, but we ran right over to the all night emergency vet. And because it was a non-critical injury and they had critical injuries, quite a few of them, they said, well, it's gonna be a six or seven hour.
Joe D'AMico (7m 42s):Wait. Normally I'd either talk my way or buy my way in. But I didn't want to squeeze out another dog that needed immediate help. We waited and we went home. We gave her a CBD doggy, gummy woke up yesterday morning. She was still a little lame. We brought over to, we did the show. Thank you for having us yesterday too. By the way we did the show went over to the vet. Nothing serious, nothing serious at all. Probably just a sprain. There's no, not even arthritis, nothing. So they gave us a little bit of medicine said, you know, I'll give it a little time, let it rest up. It should be fine. But we were a little worried. And this morning she's still hobbling around a bit, but she's definitely moving around. So thank you for your concern. I appreciate that. I know. And even Jo Madden hit us up DNI up quite a few times yesterday.
Joe D'AMico (8m 25s):Thank you, Joe. We appreciate that. You're welcome for sure. We all love our dogs. That's for sure. Mitch. I will tell you if it's all right. We were on the strip last night. We went to go see Tosh at the Mirage and I've got to tell you, I don't know if anybody out, I don't know what's going on on TV or the news or about the pandemic or this or that, or COVID I want to get into it, but you would never know it by seeing the strip last night, it looked like it was like a parade. Just, you know, there had to be a hundred thousand people just in Vegas last night, just, just for the weekend. And it was great in front of the Mirage pack, crowded inside the Mirage. You couldn't even walk,
Dionne D'Amico (9m 5s):Couldn't walk there to shoulder in the casino.
Joe D'AMico (9m 7s):It was amazing shoulder to shoulder and it was nice to see and everybody was having a good time. We had a few laughs with Tosh, very inappropriate behavior. I was talking with my best brother, Brian Bitler before the show because he and I are big fans of inappropriate behavior and he would have loved to show. So now next time Brian comes out of Tasha is in town. I got to get them tickets because we can live for our butts up. And it was a nice night. Got home. You know, we got out of the, cause it went, it was a late show. We got out maybe 12 30, 12 45. And the, the, the, the, the, the strip Mitch, it was like, it was two o'clock in the afternoon. You just couldn't. And it was great. It's just great to see that everybody having fun, everybody having a drink in their hand, taking their selfies, just where Vegas really, where it should be.
Joe D'AMico (9m 49s):And I know you're overdue for a trip here. So I just wanted to, I keep revving it up to try to get you to come out here, jump on a plane and come join us mixed. That's why I keep saying,
Mitch Wilson (9m 58s):Well, here's a picture of my dog yesterday. He was pretty stressed out. You could see, I said, you could see just really a, he just has a very, very tough life. So everyone knows that my Sam is, I don't know. He's not, it's like a lot of people are like, you know, my dog's really smart and all that other stuff. Sam's kind of maybe community college safety school, you know, but he's definitely a really sweet dog. And, you know, we, we love it. We got so cute. We definitely love him. And he loves the beach. So, I mean, that's, that's just the bonus, but what do you got for us today?
Joe D'AMico (10m 39s):Dionne? Would you like to go first, today?
Dionne D'Amico (10m 41s):So I have a one free play for you today. So the Arizona Cardinals, the only undefeated team in the NFL won both games this season in which they were road underdogs. They entered this matchup in the same situation. The Cleveland office owns the top ranked brushing unit and football, but their top running back, Nick Chubb is ruled out this week. They're effective because they have two ball carriers in the backfield, without both. They just aren't the same baker baker Mayfield will be on the run will be on the run all game against one of the league's best past defenses. The bronze defense sprung, a leak last week, allowing the chargers to post 47 points. The kernels have an awesome passing attack.
Dionne D'Amico (11m 22s):And we'll take a page from the chargers, playbook and exploit the Brown's weaknesses here. I also have some against this bread stats for you today. So Arizona is four and one, the last five games played on the road, seven three, and one, the last 11 games played as an underdog and form one. The last five games played overall. So I'm going to take the Cardinals here,
Mitch Wilson (11m 44s):Jo. How about you? Are you guys? Oh, let's go. I'm sorry. Go ahead. Yes, go ahead.
Jo Madden (11m 54s):This is one, you know, I know we were on the Browns for our circuit picks. We've been going back and forth with this one and I'm still on the Browns and this one minus the points. I really do think we just look at the situation for Arizona. They've come out so strong. They've won so many games. I think this is one where they let down in the situation. I'm liking the over more out of anything. I think both these teams are going to be able to put up the points. I really do think the Browns off that tough loss are going to come rebounding back in this game and have a big one in this one. So give me the over, stronger than anything, but I think kinda like Brown's minus the points over Cardinals.
Jo Madden (12m 35s):Sorry, Dionne. Okay.
Mitch Wilson (12m 37s):I'm a little concerned about the Cardinal's coaching situation here with all the coaches out with COVID, including head coach Kliff, Kingsbury. It's a tough spot to go to Cleveland anyway. It's not, you know, on the road and you know, you're kind of getting opposite ends of the story here with these two quarterbacks, baker Mayfield. It's like, you know, the story, can the Browns win with baker Mayfield? It's it's fricking week six, right? It's like, I mean, how many times have we seen the team get hot and week 11 and win the super bowl? Right? I mean, Aaron Rogers, right? Did it with the steel that we see it, time and time the Ravens have done it a few times. We see it time and time again. So I think it's a little early to start giving out MVP awards and all of Kyla Marine can win here and he's going to be the MVP and week six.
Mitch Wilson (13m 22s):They're giving out MVP awards, who knows if he's even going to be playing in week eight, right? The way the NFL goes to these days, I think there's going to be a tough game. I leaned to the Browns because of the coaching situation. I think it's always tough when your head coaches on the side, you know, not on the sidelines.
Joe D'AMico (13m 37s):Gotcha.
Mitch Wilson (13m 40s):It's not one of my premium Picks that's for sure.
Dionne D'Amico (13m 44s):Yeah, it didn't, it didn't make my premium picks either. It was right there, but I, I felt two other plays on the board that I felt more strongly about. So I put those out and kind of kept this one as a free play for us to
Mitch Wilson (13m 57s):NFL. It's always tough, Joe, what do you got for us?
Joe D'AMico (14m 1s):One big free game winner. Mitch, Joe are sports fans. I don't think there's any possible way. Matt Jones and the very pedestrian, knowing what office to keep pace with Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. The Patriots are counting for just 19.2 points per game. Guys. They got a win last week against Houston, but let's, I don't want to get into the debate. Some might argue there was some very, very, very questionable calls that went their way. I'm not going to get into that today, but maybe they got a little lucky to eke out that when Prescott over the last three outings guys tend T DS one, Y N T one, one wire D one. I have those hooked on phonics books. They can come in the million, one of what I empty.
Joe D'AMico (14m 41s):And I want to tell you why they are, why he's really excelling in the last three games. It's not because of their opponents. It's because of the backfield right now, Elliott and Pollard have teamed up, be quite a tandem ball carriers. They keep defensive artists. They allow him to open up the passing game. Granted, I'm not going to also argue that the Cowboys DEET is not a work in progress, but when your offense is dominating, the clock controlling your tempo, it makes it very tough for opposing offenses to get into a rhythm. And I'm going to be honest with you right now. The new England Patriots have no musical ability. They're not getting into a rhythm anyway, and having to rush there. There are threats of possessions. I think it's going to make it even tougher than them then right now, I'll be honest. If you look at Dallas's upcoming schedule, their schedule is going to get significantly tougher.
Joe D'AMico (15m 24s):They really need all the woods they can get right now. I think they get another wind and cover. I'm excited about this game. It almost made it as a premium play this week. The only reason why it different was because it was floating at about three and a half. And I always, I always want the, I always want to err on the side of question for my, for anybody that buys my picture follows me. If this was out of three, I would've probably definitely played the Cowboys, but at three and a half, I think it, it almost made a premium play, but I still think they get a winning cover here, guys.
Mitch Wilson (15m 51s):Joe, what are you thinking?
Jo Madden (15m 54s):I hate this game. Honestly, we have, I really do. Prescott has been outstanding this year. You guys know tomorrow is like his one year anniversary of that terrible injury. Last year. I cannot believe how, how he has come back. He's just come back. Phenomenal. He's been lights out. This Cowboys team has been surprising everyone in the back of my head. I still remember the Cowboys team last year. That led me down after situation, after situation, after situation. But then we have a Patriots team that's doing the same thing this season in games that they should be winning. They are not winning it. If I'm going to bet this one, I'm going to hit this under. I think we see a lower scoring battles. Both these defenses step up today.
Mitch Wilson (16m 36s):I'm a Joe. I love the under in this one. Matter of fact, I have it as part of my Pick Dawgz parlay, which we hit yesterday, right? With the double Colorado with the double Colorado's. But you know, I think that what we're going to see here is the Cowboys have a pass past defense deficiency, the 32nd ranked in the NFL against the past. And you have Mack Jones who refuses to throw the ball more than six or seven yards. He's the king of the checkdown right? Typical Alabama quarterback here. And what's happening is that what we're seeing is like 25 of 31 completions, right? For a guy like Mack Jones, but the ball doesn't go anywhere. Right?
Mitch Wilson (17m 15s):So you're going to see is a lot of probably some, you know, three, three down first downs, you know, type things for the patrons when they get first downs. And I think it is going to be not a lot of possessions in this game for either team for the Cowboys. I expect him to pound the rock Zico Elliot. Normally when these running backs lose weight like that, normally they lose a little something as the season goes on, but Elliot actually looks stronger than he has looked to. I don't know what he's done, but you know who the hell knows right with these guys, but it's, he's, you know, the cowboy second in the NFL in rushing the football, the Patriots, you know, they don't run the football as effectively. They have injuries in the, in the backfield and they didn't have much to begin with to begin with.
Mitch Wilson (17m 57s):So I think that this game is going to go under, I don't, I just don't think we see a lot of possessions here in this game that the Patriots, you know, bill Belicheck, D Ben's number four against the past 15 against the run, it's kind of going to be, you know, Dak, we're going to see Dak Prescott make mistakes that we haven't seen them make. We know that because it's up against Belicheck is going to disguise something. All right. It happens. And probably going to be a little bit of an ugly one. So I like the under,
Joe D'AMico (18m 25s):It's gotta be a fun game. You know, there's some great games on the board. I'm like you little Mitch. I mean, I'm not a big fan of the, these London games that start early. But then again, if I wake up to get a drink of water in the middle of the night here, it's nice to have live NFL football on TV. You know, it's guys to get a taste of that. But there's some, there's some golden, none darn Hills today. I mean, I think the lines are getting a little tighter in the NFL, obviously. And, and I agree with you too much, you know, we're way too early for, for them to start hitting, you got MVP trophies. You mentioned that earlier on the ideas play, but you know, what's funny is, you know, you'll read something in the newspaper today. Oh, so-and-so's gantry P Kansas next week. And like tomorrow you'll, you'll read all these things or, you know, so, you know, you really can't go by the headlines either, but yeah, you're right
Mitch Wilson (19m 14s):In college spent a rattler was the pre-season Heisman favorite and he's not even starting anymore, you know? And that's, that's, you know what, that's exactly how sports work. It's a, what have you done for me lately? And you know, and I think that's what we're going to see here. And I got to say that, you know, what's, what's worse than watching NFL football at three 30 in the morning is having to watch Trevor Lawrence play professional football at all. I mean, this guy is throwing the ball into the ground. It is what is the, is the goal of the game, then he's great at it. But it's like outside of that, he just looks like a deer in the headlights out that he's got his best days are ahead of him. But I don't think urban Meyer is the guy to take him to the next level. Absolutely not.
Mitch Wilson (19m 54s):Maybe, or maybe, maybe, maybe he's the guy to take him to the strip club, Joe, when he got for sale today.
Joe D'AMico (20m 1s):Oh, I'm proud. You know, when you were on the show yesterday, I had two games a month that both came in so far. This problem calls football season 17 and five on big game releases, three big games today. Mitch Jones, very excited. My first NFL, 10 diamonds play only released maybe two to three of these are seasonal west west seasons 11, and oh, I have my Vegas insider move. 2361 of my 41 41 this year, my high roller play. I'm so sure I'm gonna make anybody that follows me money today, Mitch, I put them up on Pick Dawgz a three game discounted package. I was cause I want to get everybody out there. Three big winners today, go over to Pick Dawgz. I'm very happy about that. Dionne had a good day again yesterday. She still pissing me off with this college football. She's still kicking my butt.
Joe D'AMico (20m 41s):She's still a few games ahead of me. You know, it's funny. It's it's literally like, like, like you got, you know, you gotta, you got a 17 perennial all star. He's got five world series rings. He's got a couple of batting titles and then a rookie comes up and he's ticket is this and the baddie Gar. And all of a sudden I was batting number four. Now they moved me to number five. And she's the number four spot it's really bothering me. She had another good day yesterday, a couple of day game winners. And
Dionne D'Amico (21m 4s):Because I try and keep my numbers higher than you. So I don't have to do laundry.
Joe D'AMico (21m 9s):She keeps messing me with this laundry. If she's still being, I got the laundry and we cause she'd beat me in college football.
Dionne D'Amico (21m 15s):That's a great deal. It Elysium. Yeah. I hate it. I'm telling ya next week it's going to be, he has to clean the whole house.
Mitch Wilson (21m 23s):Well, Jo Madden, about 60% in college football herself over here, but a Dionne. What do you have for sale today?
Dionne D'Amico (21m 30s):Well, I have only two games for everyone out there, but they are both very big games for everyone. I have my touchdown play, which is undefeated this season. And I also have my very first lady love play. You can get them both right here at Pick Dawgz and finish off your week. Right?
Mitch Wilson (21m 45s):We are the, we are the proud to say, where are the only sports handicapping say with two, two women in our leaderboards for college football? I think we're the only sports union having site with two women. And you know, others are welcome to come as well. So everyone is welcome, you know, in our community. And that's the way that we like it. And we appreciate you guys coming by as always. And we will see you next Saturday.
Joe D'AMico (22m 11s):Absolutely, absolutely looking forward to it. Mixed Joe. Thank you for having us. We love, we love doing this morning show. It's great. The only thing I'm not looking forward to now, Mitch, we started with a new train with a trainer yesterday that you literally, if it's a good thing, I don't, I have to shut the camera off because I'm going to get up like a 90 year old guy on Miami. I have my bond is so kicked the train. As soon as we get off the year, we got to go do a little bit of cardio. Have some breakfast is going to be an easy day, watching football, staying with the dogs and sitting out back by the pool a little bit. Cause I need to, I need to recall Mitch. I gotta tell you I'm old. I look like I'm in good shape, but I'm going to say I'm like one of them guys that like, literally I look like I'm in good shape, but as soon as you take the pants off, boom, everything falls down.
Joe D'AMico (22m 55s):I'm going to say yesterday, yesterday she kicked our butts. She kicked our butts, but I'm looking forward to starting to get in shape. And then literally when I take the patch off and it still looks like I got the pants on, but I want to thank you for having us. I love this show. This is, this is my favorite show. And normally mornings are tough for me because I get up so early. But you know, you've motivated me because you're up even before me. And it's three hours earlier than that Pacific theater time you are in. So thanks for having us, everybody out there. Good luck have a winning day. Thank you. God bless.
Mitch Wilson (23m 24s):Thanks for stopping by. That was Joe Joe and Dionne D Mico. Of course they are kind of our kickoff, you know, every week on our show and certainly bring the, bring the energy and the fun. So I appreciate them coming on every single week Saturday, but we have a good card there. So 11 games left on the card today and you know that we're starting to see the bad officiating early here. They're thinking that people might be sleeping through it, but just a missed pass interference, call on a pass out there to just sucky. And then of course, you know, flags being thrown for everything else. So
Jo Madden (23m 58s):Know I'm glad I don't have the game on. Then I'm so sick of rafts. I don't want to,
Mitch Wilson (24m 2s):I'm just so sick of these guys. It's like, I mean, wish they could get it. Right. You know, I just wish, but they don't seem to be able to, to, to do it. Right.
Jo Madden (24m 14s):Absolutely. And it's like ever since Joey boasts his comment, they've just got worse.
Mitch Wilson (24m 19s):Yeah. Well maybe they've been getting worse for years and it's, you know, the, the thing I've always said about the NFL officiating is the worst calls are not reviewable. And that is part of the problem. You know that there's no accountability here and it just seems that you let these guys run, run rampant, you know? And it becomes like this ego thing, like you said, like Joey Boza makes a comment. So now they have to prove a point, you know that, oh yeah, you think it was bad before? Well, yeah, it's bad. You know, now it's really bad. So I
Jo Madden (24m 51s):Wonder if they go to sleep with their, a little yellow flags.
Mitch Wilson (24m 54s):Yeah, they probably do. But I know another guy that is probably in a place where it's probably a pretty rough morning and that's Ron Romanelli from Gainesville where the Gator's just laid down. Like Dawgz again against LSU and Dan Mullen, you know, welcome to the world of six and six. I know people say, oh, you're just a Gator hater. Yes I am. Right. I was born that way. I, you know, I always say my, one of my favorite games I was ever at one of my top 10 was when Miami was up 28, 3 against Florida called time out with four seconds left to go in the game and kicked a field goal to make it 31, 1 of my very favorite games of all time.
Mitch Wilson (25m 34s):But you know, I mean, Dan Mullen, it's not like, and there it is. The dolphins in the end zone on a deep sense of touch on, thank you, Trevor Lawrence. You are a star. Oh wait. No that they don't it's it's it it's just incomplete pass that's all right though. But let's, let's just say if he was throwing, let's just say if he was throwing it to 91 of the dolphins, it was a beautiful thrill.
Jo Madden (26m 5s):Was there for him. Maybe he forgot what Timmy was on for a second. There
Mitch Wilson (26m 10s):Is it urban Meyers? No idea what he's doing out there. And I could see him going back to the college level after this season. I could see
Jo Madden (26m 18s):He's not an NFL coach. He's a college
Mitch Wilson (26m 20s):Coach, I think USC or Florida, you know, I, so, so Ron they're into Morning, first of all. Hey, so they're into Mullin for, they just signed him to an extension, right. So is he last off season? Yeah. Yeah. And how much are they into him for now?
Ron Romanelli (26m 39s):I think I remembered 20, 27. That's what I thought, but I have to check again, but it's a pretty decent extension. Yeah. Yeah.
Mitch Wilson (26m 47s):It's a lot of, it's a lot of money. He probably makes about the 5 million range is my test. And so he's out to 27. So he got fitter. This is like a 30, $40 million mistake. Yeah. They can't eat that. And he's a six and six coach. I mean, we know that, right. I mean, I, I say it and everyone's like, eh, whatever, you don't know what you're talking about. You just hate the Gators. No, no, but this is his resume shows years and years of six and six records. He had Dak Prescott, he went six and six, you know, he's had when he's one is when he was an assistant coach under really good college coaches with basically all star teams.
Ron Romanelli (27m 26s):Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's ugly performance yesterday,
Mitch Wilson (27m 31s):But that I haven't seen a Gator performance that bad while since the LSU game last year in Gainesville, it's
Ron Romanelli (27m 39s):Like where the Kentucky game, where a couple of weeks
Mitch Wilson (27m 41s):Ago. Yeah. I mean, this is so, you know, for those of you that aren't as familiar with college football and don't really understand, you know, the landscape of Florida football, especially, is that the way that university of Florida works for football is they have one goal every season. And that is to win the sec. And if they don't win the sec, they do not care about covering against Alabama. They do not care about any of that stuff. They have a goal it's not to cover against Alabama. They're supposed to beat Alabama. And their second goal is to beat Georgia. They're not going to accomplish either of those things this season.
Ron Romanelli (28m 19s):Oh no, definitely not the latter, but both of them. Yeah. But this is just not a good Florida team. It's not a good coach Tam. I mean, I could expect many of these members of the coaching staff going to be gone in the off season. Just, I I'm, I'm glad I turned the game off before real. I mean, ton of my friends went to Baton Rouge for the game and they're coming home and they tried to enjoy their night in new Orleans as best they could. But man, just an ugly performance and it caps off. What's going to be a really ugly season. Hopefully we can make it to the Duke's Mayo bowl in the end. But I mean, geez, just another disappointment after disappointment and George is going to have our head on a silver platter.
Mitch Wilson (28m 58s):Yeah. It's the only thing that has a Cane's fan kind of made me feel good about us getting intercepted as we were ready to, to win the game against North Carolina yesterday, we covered, but it's like another one of those things and said, that's not really not what we're after, but you know, we've got NFL football today and you've got, you know, an ex Florida coach here really making a mockery of the professional game here in Jacksonville. Really not sure what the game plan is, even here it's it's to get your quarterback to throw it at the other team's defensive lineman or into the ground. Well then they've nailed it today. But outside of that Jags have looked absolutely pathetic. What did, what do you got for us today?
Ron Romanelli (29m 38s):Yeah, the game I'm looking at today is a in this Cardinal's Brown's game, you know, the Browns as mentioned a couple of times by me and these shows, I think they have the number one off offensive line in football. And it's a little banged up, I think, into this game. But I still think that the brands are going to be able to run the football. Like they have all season long. And I know Nick Chubb is out for this game, but Kareem hunt is an elite running back in my opinion. Anyway, they had two stellar running backs. So I expect Kareem hunted be able to take on the workload. I also think Felton's going to be able to take on some passing down workload as running back to, this is not a good Cardinals rush defense. They've given up 5.4 yards per carry, two running backs this season, other than that week, one game against the Titans.
Ron Romanelli (30m 22s):Cornell's, we've gotten beaten pretty badly on the ground and no Kliff Kingsbury. Like we mentioned before, a couple of the quarterbacks coach is going to be out for this one center, Rodney Hudson's out as well. So I do think that that Cardinals offense, you know, no play calling from Kliff Kingsbury, the quarterback's coach gone offensive lines already struggled. And now they're out there center. I think you're going to see the Cardinals struggled to score. And as we've mentioned also, baker Mayfield. He struggled this season. The brands have not really been able to do much in the past end game, only for passing touchdowns for baker Mayfield this season nine, rushing touchdowns from Chubb and hunt combined. So we know the Browns loved the run. The football love to chew the clock out and use methodical drives.
Ron Romanelli (31m 3s):I know the brand's defense was terrible last week, but it's not as bad as what we saw against the chargers. I expect a much better performance from the Brown's defense today. And the Cardinals defense, you know, has some missing pieces. Chandler Jones is out for this one with COVID, but this is still a strong Cardinals defense. I do expect them to get some pressure on baker Mayfield, make his day pretty tough. And I think points are going to be overall hard to come by. And we have a pretty steep total here at a 48 and a half. I believe. I think it opened up at 51, but it's gone down ever since. So I do think we have some under still, even with the line going down on the under. So that's where I'm headed is on the under
Mitch Wilson (31m 40s):Joe, what are you thinking about this one? This is the second time we've talked about this game and as many guests.
Jo Madden (31m 46s):Yeah, I have to ride the over in this one. I think there's too many defensive players on the injury list for both. These teams were also looking at these two when they match up four of the last six have hit that over. I think this total is too low. I'm seeing it being a lot higher in scoring with both these offenses. Being able to put the points on the board today.
Mitch Wilson (32m 11s):Yeah, I think it's, this is a tough one because Kingsbury is kind of the, you know, the straw that stirs the drink there for the Cardinals offense and the Browns, a lot of pressure on baker Mayfield, you know, right now and Jarvis Landry back in there kind of, he is a difference maker type guy. He's kind of that security blanket receiver that makes just about any quarterback look better than they actually are. We saw him, you know, with Tannehill at Miami. And while he, I guess he save him there, but you know, outside of that, it's, you know, I don't know, this is one of those ones where it's like, we're seeing 48 and a half, so I'm seeing 47 and a half at a fan duel 48 and some of the off shores, 48 and a halves draft Kings.
Mitch Wilson (32m 57s):This thing is kind of all over the place in that range. And usually, well, if you play your cards, right, you might be able to catch a middle here, 50, 50, 4% in this sample that we don't know where these numbers come from. But 54% on the Over of the bats, 27% of the money, 73% of the money on the under, in this game. I don't know. I usually think these samples are way wrong. Cause they won't even say where they come from. You know what they don't, you know, and it's kind of like what I said yesterday, the Big Al is like, you know, when you look at these samples, it's like, because of the availability of the, of the books these days, it's like where, you know, where does the, the local who's laying off his action to the, you know, to, to the thing, where does that factor in?
Mitch Wilson (33m 50s):Cause you don't really even know where that is. And I think this could be one of those games with a six point move, you know that at you're seeing that sort of stuff happening so
Jo Madden (33m 59s):Well, we saw how many points like the Browns gave up against the chargers. It was like, what 47 points they gave up against the chargers and the Cardinals have seen now they see the holes in the Brown's defense. Aren't really
Mitch Wilson (34m 12s):On the sideline now. And he shouldn't
Jo Madden (34m 14s):Be yelling at himself.
Mitch Wilson (34m 17s):Well, it's kinda like, you know, I had like the big sister, you know, stop it and yourself
Jo Madden (34m 25s):And you make that into a meme please.
Ron Romanelli (34m 33s):But what I would say about the Brown's pass rushes and you know, I, it did struggle last week against the charges, but I think the Cardinals offensive line is in a bad spot and miles Garrett and Jordanian client. They are questionable for this game, but I do expect them to play. And I think that they're going to be able to get to Kyla Marie and stop that run. Stop the run basically all day Cardinals really. Haven't had a strong run game this season. So that's where I think you'll see some sacks, some tackle for losses and those go a long way in catching the under.
Mitch Wilson (35m 3s):Joe's got that Canadian Australian thing going. That's why she speaks, Okay. half dozen.
Jo Madden (35m 24s):We'll be here. We'll be here for
Mitch Wilson (35m 28s):All of the action today. Of course, the early halftime show open to the public, the afternoon halftime show only three games today that w that's just for premium VIP. And then the Sunday night football, we'll be here for halftime as well, Steelers, Seahawks. And I don't know why they put the chargers Ravens there, just switch it out now,
Jo Madden (35m 52s):Why haven't they
Mitch Wilson (35m 53s):Surprise? It's actually the charger's Ravens game. It's like the one that everyone cares about, you know what, even rather see Packers bears they're anything but that it's like, yeah,
Jo Madden (36m 4s):Absolutely. I actually thought it was a Bill's game tonight. And then I was like, that's not the game tonight. I was so disappointed to realize it was the Steelers.
Mitch Wilson (36m 11s):You think it's cause it's up against the baseball game, you know, you think that's why they did it. Or do you think that they thought that Russell Wilson was going to play in the Seahawks were going to be good? Cause there's, you know, later in the season they can, they can switch out. But the first I think eight games or nine games, they can't switch out. So this was the set game. Meanwhile, Monday night football gets, you know, the bells and Titans, which should be a beauty
Ron Romanelli (36m 42s):And great day football ahead of us. I do think that that Sunday night football games can actually be entertaining. You know, Gino Smith making is first starting like four years. He had, you know, he looked pretty good against the, the Rams, you know, when he came in for a Russell Wilson, but we'll have to see, I think Steelers are probably going to get a lot of pressure on them and forces hand.
Mitch Wilson (37m 3s):Well, it's one thing when a guy comes off the bench and the team has any game planned or planned for him, it's another thing when you know who the quarterback is going to be and you operate your game plan around this guy's tendencies. Gino Smith is really not really the same quarterback as Russell Wilson. So when you're playing for a guy that's supposed to be sweeping around the pocket and you kind of have guys that are closer to the line, it kind of leaves those downfield passes open. Right? So, and that's really the way that, that, so Gino Smith was able to exploit that if, of course, when we needed him the most, which was at the end of the game and he threw the interception. But, but outside of that, I mean, it was, you know, it's basically like you're preparing for Tom Brady and you get a Murray, you know, it's like, it's know or the opposite way you're preparing for Kyla Marie, you got Tom Brady, right?
Mitch Wilson (37m 52s):It's like, you can't really do it. And you know, that's why we, that's why the two headed quarterback works. Right. It's like, you know, we've seen the two edit quarter. It doesn't always work, but we've seen it work before, you know, what did you guys teams have two different quarterbacks? Yeah, it was Ron. What are you selling today?
Ron Romanelli (38m 10s):Yeah, Today I got my NFL super Sunday trio. My top three plays in the NFL against the spread really like in these plays, one of them in the one o'clock slot and then two of them, the four o'clock games. So check it out at Pick Dawgz premium, looking for a three-in-one sweep and a nice winning NFL Sunday last week and looking at bounce back from a rough Saturday yesterday. Definitely not our day is today's but looking to win it today.
Mitch Wilson (38m 35s):All right,
Ron Romanelli (38m 36s):Well thanks. And I'll be watching the game at grandma's with Sunday dinner. So meatballs and pasta can't wait, what time
Jo Madden (38m 44s):Concert last week.
Ron Romanelli (38m 46s):Oh, it was great. It was, it felt so quick. It was really honestly a quick show, but tons of people sold out crowd, just a, a great environment. You know, I'm not the biggest Harry styles fan, but I thought he put on a good show.
Mitch Wilson (38m 59s):It's okay. Yes, you are.
Ron Romanelli (39m 2s):He's actually pretty talented, not a big fan of one direction, but I like his solo work. Oh,
Mitch Wilson (39m 7s):You're, you're a huge fan of one
Ron Romanelli (39m 9s):Day. I got my poster hanging up. You can't see it, but
Jo Madden (39m 14s):I love it. Well, you've earned watching football all day, so enjoy it.
Ron Romanelli (39m 18s):Yeah, I did last week. Couldn't watch a single game. So I'm sitting on the couch and not moving
Jo Madden (39m 23s):Good for you. Enjoy and best of luck in your bets today around.
Mitch Wilson (39m 29s):All right. That was Ron Romanelli here with, I like, I like, I was like talking Gator football with them. It's I think that even though Ron is not originally from Florida, I think football fans in the state of Florida really know their football. It's like most of them, if you've lived there most of your life or been there a long time, that was all we had ever had. We never had baseball teams or hockey teams or any of that stuff or basketball teams. We only had football for the longest time. So it kind of get a different perspective on at all as it goes. But we've got a lot more guests with us today and next we're going to bring in Al Ninos, who definitely is more, you know, looks at a lot of different sports as well.
Mitch Wilson (40m 17s):He kind of covers whatever is whatever is going on out there. And you know, we have different types of handicappers and Al I think generally a little favorite heavy for me, but that's, you know, that's his own. It works for him. You know, I liked, I liked, I liked the dogs, but Al welcome to the show.
Al Ninos (40m 37s):I think so. Thanks so much. Yeah. Well, I know I love my baby baby little, a heavy favorite, but I had to look in a while. Don't want to give too much away, but we'll get to our Picks in a second here,
Mitch Wilson (40m 48s):But I I'm just talking like you're a Yankees Dodgers guy and it's like, it doesn't get any more public favorite than that. I mean, that's pretty much the two,
Al Ninos (40m 57s):The, I did lay off the Yankees quite a bit. This season, you know, they went through, they had a pretty rough patch there. They take a couple of losses before learning my lesson. Yeah. But, but yeah, I stayed off them for a while. You know, the Yankees just rough season. They did try to put a little run together at the end was a little too little too late, but yeah, I'm a Dodgers fan and you know, I love my Lakers. I like my Raiders. It's easier for me to take a certain amount of points against, against my teams that I root for them. Especially Dodgers last couple of years have been really good. I actually saw a lot of winds coming in their way and running half. Usually isn't enough for me to go against the Dodgers. Especially if you end up laying juice without running a half dozen dozen, it doesn't do much for me.
Al Ninos (41m 41s):Well,
Mitch Wilson (41m 41s):What do you got for us today?
Al Ninos (41m 44s):Well, first game we'll be looking at is the Texans that the Colts. So a big, big dog here as Texans coming into Indianapolis for Louisiana 25 to 22, the Patriots, you know, obviously not a very good team, probably one of the worst teams in the league, just a one in four straight up, but they are a three and two against the spread. So that's really what we are looking at. Most of the time here, court's also three and two against the spread, but you know, I don't see them covering his double digit favorites too often. This season they're only when there are sorry, one in four us straight up to there only when did come by 10 points.
Al Ninos (42m 27s):There's still a lot of points to be given up in the NFL. And I do see a lot of 10 and a half and some, some 11th popping up here for Houston. So they also have, which Houston also has one of the worst defenses in the league. Not, not a very good offense at all, but it's not like the courts have an elite defense either. They've given up 25 points and all their games. So expect Houston to get enough points on the board here. And what's expected to be a low scoring game to cover these a 10 and a half and 11 points and maybe a weight closer to kickoff and get a better number with some money still coming in on, on the courts as huge favorites here,
Mitch Wilson (43m 6s):Joe, what are you thinking?
Jo Madden (43m 8s):I can't do it. I can't, I can't take the Texans to cover the spread. When we look at them against the Colts, they suck at covering the spread there one on five against the spread in their last six versus this Colts team. We look at Wentz, Mitch. I know you don't like whence, but
Mitch Wilson (43m 25s):Why do we have to look at once?
Jo Madden (43m 27s):Well, because in the last two games, he's had a 71% completion rate.
Mitch Wilson (43m 31s):So,
Jo Madden (43m 34s):Well we have two and except his own line has really let him down. He's got sapped over and over again because his offensive line has let him down. This is a Colts team that needs to come out. They need to get a dominating win in this. I need the Texans to be the worst team in the NFL. I'm on the Colts minus the points in this one
Mitch Wilson (43m 52s):Worst team in the NFL is playing in Tottenham right now.
Al Ninos (43m 56s):Yeah. So this is one of the walls. And then say the words,
Jo Madden (43m 60s):Oh no, I need the Texans to be the worst has a future
Mitch Wilson (44m 3s):Texas to be the worst. But anyways, I think that, you know, the, the Colts get Hilton back today and oh my, what is Trevor Lawrence? Even don't you run backwards 15 yards, like really with your back to the defense and throw it over your shoulder out of bounds. What kind of play is that? Who drew that one up? But anyways,
Jo Madden (44m 24s):Well, sat down.
Mitch Wilson (44m 25s):Yeah. I mean, this guy is just, I mean, he just looks lost out there. Flora's has really drawn up a fantastic deep defense is disguising. The blitz is really well. Lauren's just cannot see them coming. But you know, I think that, you know, getting T Y Hilton back for the Colt is a big thing for all of us, because not once has no excuses, right? I mean, so it's like, you know what, Joe apologize for him all day and, you know, try and paint them to be better than he is, but he's, he stinks.
Jo Madden (44m 58s):I mean, Carson went sucks and I just can't put one penny of my money anywhere near him. And I just think taking the other side is just, you know, it's, it's either take the Texans Texans money line or, or don't bet the game. Cause I mean, the best thing for us all is to not Bet the game, cause this way we don't have to watch this guy. Yeah, no, I, yeah. That's pretty much what I said. Yeah. It didn't make any of my premium plays, but if I'm going to take it, it's definitely not the Texans
Mitch Wilson (45m 31s):He's flight, Trevor Lawrence, but he's several years into the league. He does the exact same things. I mean, it's like
Jo Madden (45m 42s):He does, but the last two weeks he has hit a 71% completion rate.
Mitch Wilson (45m 46s):'cause they don't let them throw the ball anymore. Yeah, absolutely. That's very true. It's like, cause they've been handing the ball off. Yeah.
Jo Madden (45m 56s):Yeah. Houston has struggled and struggled and struggled offensively this season.
Mitch Wilson (46m 0s):I'll tell you what, I've struggled. I struggled when I've had to watch Carson to play football at the professional level. It's it's, it's not easy for me.
Al Ninos (46m 8s):I do expect them to run the ball again a lot today. The Houston's defense has been worse against the run than the, than the past. So, so again, I hope in, they expect that too and try to get a couple third downs and for some bad plays out of Carson Wentz on third down
Mitch Wilson (46m 23s):At how much at how many punts does a punter start to get fatigued. Cause I think we're going to, we're starting to see that from Jacksonville here. What else do you got for us today?
Al Ninos (46m 36s):Well, we're looking at one more game here. Yeah. As you said, this, this game, not a premium, but definitely like the points there are this next game we're looking at, it was a lot closer to making a premium place. I even think I had the, the little write-up ready to go. Just did not hit enter on the premium plays with this one. So it's the Raiders in Denver here after a very ugly, a 20 to nine loss to the bears obviously. Yeah. They were dealing with a lot of locker room drama, which affected their game in that one. But I do still think they're the better team in this match up here and they should bounce back. They were looking real good at the start of the season, you know? And I don't think they want to let this, this little incident that define the other season.
Al Ninos (47m 20s):I mean, obviously it's a, it's a pretty big deal. I'm not trying to downplay it at all, but these are still some, some players that want to get out there and play and win some ball games. So, well actually this is another game where money's coming in on the other side, then we're getting a four and a half, five starting to pop out there. It was four earlier this morning again. So just wait till closer to kickoff. But if you see that number start coming back down, I would, I would try to hit the Raiders here, getting anything over a field goal looks great to me. And yeah, if you want to look at the Moneyline too, I can't really blame you. I do think the Raiders bounce back and actually win this game. Not just talking as a fan here.
Al Ninos (47m 60s):I just don't think Denver's been that good. I mean, they, they beat up on some weaker teams, but they haven't looked good against the better team. So I think they're in trouble here again,
Mitch Wilson (48m 14s):Joe, what do you think? Yeah.
Jo Madden (48m 16s):I'm completely with you on this one. I really do think people are overvaluing what we've seen out of Denver. Yes, they have a great defense, but I think this Raiders team makes a statement in this game. They've had a couple of rough games. There's issues with John Gruden, leaving everything like that. I think they have a really solid game. This game I'd take the Raiders plus the points.
Mitch Wilson (48m 37s):I like the Raiders plus the points as well. I think this game is tight, tight, tight. I think it's, I think the, I think the game is decided by less points than, than the spread. And now it moving up to five, five and a half. I like it even more. And I think that just this one is going the wrong way for the,
Al Ninos (48m 59s):Because I agree. Yeah. Sorry. Kicking myself for not putting in the parents, but I have a five NFL plays there already that I really liked. So I decided to share this one on the show that you guys,
Mitch Wilson (49m 11s):All right. Well, what do you got for sale today at the site? You got any baseball and Dodgers Braves action.
Al Ninos (49m 17s):I do have a play on the, on the total in that one. I don't know if I set aside, everyone would know which one I'm going with, but now my premium plays on the total. I do think I always see the Dodgers bounce back and win this game, but how big they win it. You could check that out with my play on the total hair as a, have that sold separately than my five back in the NFL got a long-term pass. And that was a great time for it. And you get all the players.
Mitch Wilson (49m 43s):Thanks for joining us as always. We'll see you next week right here on the live show for NFL Week seven. Cause they've got 11 weeks of regular season NFL football and plus, Hey, are you doing anything for NBA?
Al Ninos (49m 57s):Absolutely. Yeah. I don't have my season pack ups yet, but, but I definitely will. I love the NBA obviously and yeah, definitely looking forward to that as well as a great time to hop on a long-term pass a lot of sports going on and captain them all right now doing the NFL NBA, when that starts MLB still not over, got the NHL gone, college football and college basketball. So starting up soon, huh? Yeah.
Mitch Wilson (50m 24s):College basketball. November 12th, I believe so. Yeah. Busy, busy, busy. Yes. This is, this is the time. Thanks again, Al for joining us and we'll see you again next week. And then looking forward to that one, that was, that was Al Ninos and interesting takes their, you know, double Dawgz forum. And I know the Texas Pick not, not popular. And I think sometimes that's a good place to be, you know, is, is on the not popular play. And you know, I, I certainly don't mind being there myself, so, but
Jo Madden (51m 4s):I'm not touching the Texans.
Mitch Wilson (51m 7s):It's Carson, it's Carson,
Jo Madden (51m 11s):Carson glance, but it's a Texans Texans altogether. Right? You hear that drum roll? That's exactly right.
Mitch Wilson (51m 19s):Well, I don't know. I just, I just can't get behind Carson Wentz. Can't do it. It's like so bad. He's miserable. It's kinda like
Jo Madden (51m 31s):Almost as bad as Jared Goff.
Mitch Wilson (51m 34s):I think he's worse than golf.
Jo Madden (51m 37s):Oh, they are in the same
Mitch Wilson (51m 38s):Category for in the same draft. They went one and two in the same draft. It was just really horrific. But anyways, we can decide this one later, we got plenty of shows to do that today, Joe, but let's go to, let's bring in Giovan from Boston. Of course they're ready for some hoops there. They always are Celtics, you know, gonna be a factor again, this season Tatum and I'll have Tatum, you know, we'll have a chance as they say really one of the best draft picks in recent years. I can remember he was in that he was in that same draft as the guy from Washington, right. Faults. Yeah. It was like he was taking after fall in that draft.
Mitch Wilson (52m 20s):Ouch. That's kind of like almost like the dark OPEC, right? It's up there. It's up there with it. But anyways, Giovan, welcome to the show. We got NFL football today. So you got your Patriots hat on. Probably did not like Joe D'Amico pick there then on the, on the Cowboys. In that one.
Jovan Burts (52m 44s):I don't know
Mitch Wilson (52m 47s):If there's a, if there's, if there's a will, there's a way I have to have Belicheck. You always have a chance, especially against the team that, well, I, I just think you got Belicheck against Mike McCarthy and pretty much says everything, but
Jovan Burts (53m 3s):Go ahead. Go ahead. Now the coaching, the coaching on disparity is pretty big there. You know, I will say that.
Mitch Wilson (53m 12s):Yeah. You know, Dak, Prescott having a big comeback year though, and Ezekiel Elliott, like I said, he's, he's in the best shape that we have seen him in, in, in, well at all. Right. I mean, this is the best that we've seen him. So we're going to learn a lot about him today. And of course, Belicheck, he will have them ready, ready to go. But what, what have you got for us going on today?
Jovan Burts (53m 38s):Yeah. I'm actually looking at this game. Yeah. So swung it to me, you know? And let, let it go for a little bit, but now I'm swinging back at it. Yeah. So surprisingly I'm on, I'm on the Dallas Cowboys, you know, when the culture disparity, you know, it is what it is, it's Belicheck, but I don't know, man, he, he might've lost something on his fast ball. He's not getting through the place. They don't have the person, no one on offense. And you know, you look at the history of Dallas in, in a Patriots in the last 25 years. They haven't won since 1996 against on new England. But I think it's, it might be a little come up.
Jovan Burts (54m 19s):It's coming up in this one. You know, it's just the thing about the thing about the Patriots is, you know, Brady, when he was here, he covered up a lot of, a lot of, you know, a lot of wounds that the Patriots had. He was a big bandaid and, you know, with Belicheck, it allowed him, it allowed him having him, having him, having Brady allowed him to, you know, stretch other things. And on the roster stretching a little bit too thin, but because they had Brady, that was, they was always able to win. But now, since he's been going, it's just been, it's been a situation where they don't have the office to, to, they don't have the offense to, what's the word I'm looking for to, well, I'm just going to say cover up the other ills that they have on the team.
Jovan Burts (55m 14s):So, you know, they, they're independent and don't break, but you can't do that if you're not scoring the ball and you know, you know, with Dallas and the talent that they have on the team and the points that they're going to put up, the Patriots, can't keep up with that. You know, you have Mack Jones and last three games. He's had it on five interceptions. That's no good against a team in Dallas that, you know, the second and takeaways at 12, 12 takeaways and you know, early in the season and you know, it's just, it's just shaping up to be. Now I will say this, the patrons do have a way to win. You know, they, they could Dallas know, they do give up a lot of passing yards and the, you know, the Patriots, they, while they can no pass the ball, Mack Jones, just like you said, you know, he thinks and dunks a little bit too much.
Jovan Burts (56m 5s):And the plays that they call they're meant for like 10 yards, 15 yards in when the pass rush is on him, he kinda gets jittery feet and just throws it up. Then that's why the last three games he's found himself in, in, in, in, into some trouble. So I think that, you know, on the talent gap between these two teams, I don't, I don't, I don't see a way for the Patriots in this one to get it done. Jamie, if it was 6.7 points, maybe, but not three and a half. I don't know, Joe.
Jo Madden (56m 38s):Yeah, I'm, I'm stuck on this under, in this one, we look at this game and the Dallas Cowboys defense really has stepped up. The Patriots are only scoring an average of 19.2 points per game. And when we look at these two teams matched up eight of the last nine have hit that under there for the Cowboys and the Patriots and the Patriots as a whole floor of the last five have hit that under. So I'm loving this under, in this game. The more we talk about it, the more I wish it was one of my premium place.
Mitch Wilson (57m 8s):Yep. And I agree with you. I love the under, but I think that, you know, the part of the thing that does not show up in the stat sheet that shows up when you watch the games is that the Cowboys have gotten some of the most miserable calls go their way. This season of any team, we saw it against the giants where they did not call the passenger parents, the end zone, where Tony was basically two handed, pushed to the ground, basically face first. And they did not call the passenger ferrets on that, which would have been the backdoor cover there for the giants in that game would have set up a backdoor cover there. Instead the Cowboys get the ball, score, the touchdown dress up. Oh, it just gets lost in the shuffle kind of like the pasture parents in the Michigan Nebraska game. Right. But it actually did happen.
Mitch Wilson (57m 49s):And then the same thing in the Panthers Cowboys game where the, the fumble that wasn't a fumble forward progress was stop for progress was stopped because the ball was on the ground. And, you know, that's, that's why forward progress was stopped, but no, they gave the Cowboys, the ball. And that one, once again, the worst calls in the NFL, not reviewable. And, you know, once again went and the Cowboys favor. So we've seen the game in Los Angeles against the chargers. I think they got lucky in that one too. And it's so it's, I think what we've seen is that bill Belicheck, traditionally Thrive's career sucks the luck out of teams, and he does it by disguising deep fences and, you know, against mediocre players. And I think the Cowboys have some overpaid mediocre players on that team.
Mitch Wilson (58m 31s):I do. And I think that what we're going to see, especially in that late time slot where there's only three games today, the NFL always finds a way to make these games super exciting and competitive when there's only two or three games in one time slot like that. I don't know. I have a feeling Joe, Matt and I are going to be on here at halftime. It's getting one of these miserable seven, six games or something, right in Foxborough where, you know, it just, and then everyone's going to be saying, you know, how did I not think that, you know, Belicheck, couldn't come up with something here,
Jovan Burts (59m 4s):You know, Hey, I hope you're right. You know, my heart says past, cause I'm a pats fan. I've been the past fence. You know, since, since the eighties, when I was a little kid, you know, no sat through the one in 15 years, you know, going back to the super bowl in 96 and then finally breaking through in 2001. And you know, the we've had for the last 20 years, you know, but, but just with, with this team, you know, they have a defense that, yeah, it looks good on paper. You know, they, their stats, you know, that their bankers in the, in the league, but situationally, they can't get stops in key situations. That's the, that's just the team, how the team has been constructed this year. And that's how they've been playing on the field.
Jovan Burts (59m 44s):So I hopefully I'm wrong, you know what I'm saying? But you know, it is what it is. It's I call me between being a Finn and, you know, being a, a S a Sports Betting.
Mitch Wilson (59m 55s):Like sometimes he'd go extreme the other way, you know, like people can go stream the other way. It's like, I'm a fan. So I don't want to buy into the fan thing. And it's like, I mean, Trevor Lawrence just completed a pass recently. And he just got a touchdown pass. I mean, it happens, you know, I mean, it's, if you have, if you have Marvin, you know, if you have Jones Jr, to, to, to catch passes, you know, circus catches in the corner of the end zone. Well, it's a nice, nice thing to have when you have a quarterback as bad as you know, of course the dolphins top two corners out for this game as well, but wow. Oh, that hit the ground,
Jovan Burts (1h 0m 32s):Hit the ground,
Mitch Wilson (1h 0m 33s):The taking it back. I don't know. It sure. Looked like it bounced off the turf when they showed it the, when they showed it the second time, the kicking the extra point. Oh, well, it's just lines up a better halftime Bet for us. Anyways. Jovan, you got another pick for us or, or just one
Jovan Burts (1h 0m 56s):That's the foot today.
Mitch Wilson (1h 0m 57s):All right. What do you got for sale at Pick Dawgz?
Jovan Burts (1h 1m 2s):Yeah, so I have my show me the money Sunday, NFL five-pack, you know, far plays that, that I like, you know, I'm going to look at 'em this daughter's Atlanta game, you know, see you. I have, I have an opinion on it, but I just want to do a little bit more digging before I pull the trigger or leave it alone. But yeah, fireplace 44 99, you know, I'm looking up at, at Big Al right now. No, I'm second. You overtook me first place, you know, so it's trying to know y'all get it going. Cause you know, Big Al he has a long history of being, you know, being, being a, being a champion at this thing.
Jovan Burts (1h 1m 42s):So, you know, trying to just compete.
Mitch Wilson (1h 1m 47s):Oh, you're definitely competing and having a great season. You're not gonna win every game in the NFL. That's for sure. You're not going to have a winning week every week, but it's all about the marathon that is the 18 week and regular season plus the playoffs. So we fighting the good fight here for sure. So we will see you next week here on our Saturday show, right? So we'll see you Saturday, tomorrow or next week. Cool. All right. It's like I'm reading comments and you know, talking at the same time and you know, someone here said, oh, dolphins, defense looks bad. They're missing their highest or two highest paid players on defense. They're both their corners.
Mitch Wilson (1h 2m 28s):We went through this, I think on a show last week, we went through the highest paid cornerbacks in the NFL, like who are the highest paid corners and what they make and they make quarterback money, right? I mean, these corners are making quarterback money in the NFL because you're not allowed to play pass defense anymore. So you need guys that, you know, when they sick, the entire pass rush on him can jump up and intercept. These lob passes that the quarterbacks make. And in that case, the backup for the dolphins was unable to do it against that pathetic throw by Trevor Lawrence, where he got super lucky, but it happens and well, that's the nature of the beast, but anyways, we're going to bring in Al McMordie next, see, got
Jo Madden (1h 3m 18s):40 seconds left to halftime.
Mitch Wilson (1h 3m 19s):Yes. So we'll have to, we'll have Alwan for halftime to see what he does for if he does have times. But you know, we all know I do so kind of our thing, but so far, though, lot of good insight and you know, for a small card, a lot of people landing on the same games. That's what we have so far, but let's bring it now. Al good morning.
Big Al McMordie (1h 3m 47s):Good morning.
Mitch Wilson (1h 3m 49s):You watching this gem from Tottenham Hotspur stadium. We got really two, I think two is a lot better than people give them credit for it. You could see just how bad the dolphins were without them. And you see them with him here. Of course, they're playing urban Meyer's team. So, you know,
Big Al McMordie (1h 4m 9s):Indian on, I haven't had a chance to turn on the television yet. It's still a bit early out here for me in Los Angeles. I'd actually, I'd like to get back over to London to go see the new stadium. I was there probably about 15 years ago at the old stadium at white Hart lane. So I'm curious to see what the new one looks like.
Mitch Wilson (1h 4m 26s):This one is crazy. I've seen some videos on, on YouTube of how they changed the changing from a soccer pitch to NFL. And it's two entirely different fields.
Big Al McMordie (1h 4m 36s):So I can imagine,
Mitch Wilson (1h 4m 39s):Yeah, it costs a zillion dollars, but you know, yesterday college football seemed like a, you know, a little bit of everything, something for everyone yesterday. And you know, as Giovan said and NFL, you're back on top of the leaderboards after a slow start to the season.
Big Al McMordie (1h 4m 58s):Yeah. That, I mean, that's pretty unimportant. I don't care if I'm number 23rd on the leaderboard. So as long as I'm winning, you know, that's not really a competition between me and other handicappers. It's a competition between us and the bookmakers. So, you know, it's, it's, you know, Javan is having a great year, but it doesn't matter. Who's number one, really. You're just trying to like beat the 52.38%. That's the goal
Mitch Wilson (1h 5m 18s):I'm with you, I'm with you as well. And I think a lot of people in the YouTube comments often think, you know, when I do my videos, that it's, that I'm in some sort of picking contest, but I don't really care. It's like if you're making money fading a pick that I made, Hey, go for it. You know, it's, I don't care. You know, it's I just want you guys to win. It's like, that's why I do this.
Big Al McMordie (1h 5m 37s):Yeah. The goal is to be at the books. It's not, not to, you know, be the colleague, but yeah. So let's, let's, let's talk NFL, you know, one of the things I like about these formats, Mitch, you know, with you and Joe is we get to talk about handicapping theory. It's not just spouting off, you know, trends and stuff about games, but we can talk about what it takes to be a good handicapper. And when, when you break down these games, cause I know there's probably a lot of people out there in our audience who want to, you know, maybe a baby Mitch WIlson who want to become a sports handicapper, they're trying to figure out how to do what we do. So it's, it's really worthwhile for us to discuss kind of how we arrive at our decisions. And I'm going to use the Colts game, I guess, as an illustration of, of something that I try to do is just a general thing with the NFL.
Big Al McMordie (1h 6m 24s):And one of the things you don't want to do in the NFL, generally speaking, is lay points with bad teams and the Colts this year. They're one in four, they've got a negative scoring margin of minus 4.0 and the land 10 and a half points to the Houston Texans. And yes, I know Houston is a really bad team too. Their scoring margins, negative 10.4. So it's 6.4 points worse than the Annapolis. But generally speaking, you want to take points with bad teams and you want to lay points with good teams. And there's always an exception to every rule. I know in week two, I took green bay. They were blown out by new Orleans in week one. And I took her in badly, the double digits against Detroit. So there's always exceptions, but generally speaking with bad teams, take points and to illustrate this, we can take a look at how home teams have done over the last 42 years in the NFL.
Big Al McMordie (1h 7m 11s):When they're laying more than three points. If they have a negative scoring margin, those teams are 5 79 and 7 0 5 ATS. So that's again, it's just a general rule. You don't want to do it. And likewise, we take a look at how teams without a winning record, do their one 12 and 1 53 when their favorite by 10 or more points, including 84 and 1 29. If they're not off a momentum building straight up and against a spread we're in. So those are just kind of illustrative points about why you really don't want to lay the double digits here with Indianapolis. It didn't make my Pick Dawgz premium, you know, plays of course it's, it's not a strong play, but I'm going to take the points with you.
Mitch Wilson (1h 7m 55s):You're right. Carson Wentz does suck. Joe, what do you think?
Jo Madden (1h 7m 58s):Let's just say Carson went sucks and get it over with. He does suck last two weeks. He has done better. I am looking at that 71% completion rate last two weeks, but you're right, Mitch. He has passed off this ball again. This is one that is not hitting my premium place for me. I'd take the Colts over anything minus the points, but I hear you out what you're saying and those stats don't lie. I just can't get behind the Texans. I can't take the texts. And plus the points today,
Mitch Wilson (1h 8m 25s):I'm with the Alice. Well, I, I agree with the strategy a hundred percent in that one. And I think in this one, we even have some better angles with T Y Hilton returning. There's even more love for the Colts and we're actually even getting better value on the Texans here than we would have had he not been playing. You know, there's just, I mean, you can even see it in all the comments the books are doing exactly what, you know, what they, what they, what they want you to do. And that is believed that the Texans can't stay within this, you know, the number with this team, even though we've seen them stay within the number against better than this.
Big Al McMordie (1h 8m 59s):Yeah. So, so let's see, you know, we'll see how it plays out. Obviously in Indianapolis, we've talked about it a few times on this show, they were given, you know, the worst opening schedule of any team with five winning teams from 2020. So this is their first relative breather, the whole season re going severely down in class to play the Texans after opening up with five teams with Winnie records. So this could be the exception to the rule where you just say, Hey, Indianapolis is a lot better than the one in four record indicates. I'm going to lay the points here, they're down in class. It probably getting up on opponent. They can handle, they're going to blow them out. And I understand that mentality. It's not necessarily wrong, but it's, I'm just saying, generally speaking, take points with bad tings laid points with good teams.
Mitch Wilson (1h 9m 39s):And it was, I'm taking the dolphins here on the Moneyline second half for those people that are interested in the halftime of the Jaguars game. I got dolphins Moneyline second half against the Jags. It's even money on that one. And then I also like the dolphins team total over 10 and a half, I think a lot of wasted opportunities there that I think they convert for scores in this one. And we've seen the Jags also Wilton in the second half of games all season long. Anyways, Joe, Joe.
Jo Madden (1h 10m 10s):Yeah. I was just quickly pulling up those team totals here for the second half. I'm with you, the dolphins a hundred percent on the money line. I think they come out and do this and then I would take them on the well don't even touch the spread. That doesn't make sense. Yeah. And hit them on that over. I liked them over 12 and a half. Sorry. Is it 11 and a half? 1100.
Mitch Wilson (1h 10m 35s):So here's the question. Someone says, what classifies you as a handicapper, amateur handicap, professional handicap as a hospital, the amount of money you make or when percentage I do it for a living. So I consider that that I'm a professional handicapper, just like a professional baseball player plays for plays for money. And does that for a living that's to me that's, that's the difference.
Big Al McMordie (1h 10m 56s):Yeah. I would agree with that, Mitch. It's kinda like if, you know, you can cook for yourself and make yourself, you know, a steak or you can cook in a restaurant and make it for other people who pay you to, you know, cook the food for it. That's kind of what we do. You know, that people pay us for our research. I work as you know, you work the same amount of hours were working 18 to 20 hours a day, doing our research that we make. That's pretty much what makes us professionals.
Mitch Wilson (1h 11m 19s):Yeah. I mean, I agree with Alan on all those on all those counts. And I think there are people out there that have the ability to be professional handicappers that are not professional handicappers. I think it's a matter of taking the leap and having the guts to do it. And I think on the other side, I think there are people that might be professional handicappers or think they're professional. And he got rid of say the professional handicap that aren't actually perfect.
Big Al McMordie (1h 11m 42s):And I think there's also, I think a lot of the people out there watching don't quite understand how much work goes into this. I think there's a major disconnect with the amount of hours and time that goes into our work product. It's not, you know, I think that many of our customers, when they're trying to figure out who they're going to bet on, it's basically as simple as waking up and saying, I'm going to bet on the Dallas Cowboys today. I mean, they really don't have any rhyme or reason or basis for doing it. Whereas we're actually spending hours and hours going over, you know, reading local news articles, going over the statistics, you know, we're reading articles about Tarleton state versus Dixie state spending, you know, 10 to 15 hours, you know, every, every night doing this kind of stuff. So it there's a lot of work that goes into it into being a professional handicapper.
Big Al McMordie (1h 12m 26s):And that's what our clients pay us for more than anything else is the time and the, and the expertise and the knowledge that, that we bring. And we save our clients a time that they would otherwise have to do to, you know, do this Reese.
Mitch Wilson (1h 12m 40s):Yeah, something that happened over this past week is something that I rarely, rarely ever happens. And I took a pass on the card and Al took a pass on this exact same card that I did. I not really an NHL guy. I, you know, we do the Michi puck segment in the morning, but it's like, it's more of a, you know, comedy sketch than anything else. And at least at this point in the season, cause I don't have any data cause I don't watch the games. So I need the data in the NHL, but you know, it's rare that I ever take a pass. And so it's like, that means, you know, the Jackson state versus, you know, Prairie view a and M it's like I'm, I'm candy capping that the same thing I am with the giants Rams game today.
Mitch Wilson (1h 13m 20s):I mean, it's, it's exactly the same thing over and over again. And it's like, I think it's kind of like, you know, we talk about this on the, on the morning show sometimes where it's like, yeah, I'm great at wheel of fortune on TV. It's always my turn, you know, and see it. Same thing with jeopardy, my losses don't my misses don't count. Right. And it's always, once again, I'm always the, I'm always the quickest with the buzzer, right. As well. So it's kind of, you know, it's, it's a lot easier said than done. We will be having our become a handicapper competition. I have it every year and it'll be the month of December. So I'm you guys gear up, let everybody know it's gonna be a month of December and it's going to be college football, NFL college, basketball NBA, last year's winner, James Clark.
Mitch Wilson (1h 14m 3s):He's done a real nice job. And Giovan came in second and we brought him on as well. Cause he did, it was close and he did a really good job. And you can see these guys, they, they have gone through the ups and downs of, of a year of being, you know, being a handicapper. And I think, you know, those are, those are the guys to ask.
Big Al McMordie (1h 14m 23s):Yeah. Actually I'd love to talk to James and Javan to see what they thought about their first year. And you know, was it everything that it was cracked up to be?
Mitch Wilson (1h 14m 30s):We asked them on the show and James generally says, he's like, it's not exactly what you think because there are days where you don't want to do it. It's like that's, I think that's what he was basically saying. It's like, there are days that you just, you know, you don't really love it, but
Big Al McMordie (1h 14m 48s):It's it's, I mean, I, I love doing it, but it's a grind. I mean it's 365 days a year. We, we don't have a, well, we've got three days off with a baseball star for any, unless there's world cup soccer or something going on at the time, but it's basically an everyday thing. And that's one of the most difficult things that handicappers have to manage is there are no weekends, there are no hallway.
Mitch Wilson (1h 15m 9s):It's, it's, we're coming into that time of year where it's like, it really is, is an absolute grind. And I think what people don't realize is like, you know, also all the holidays, all the weekend, we work 365 days a year and you know, people can say, you know, oh, you know, you live in Hawaii and you do all this stuff, but yeah, but it's like, I work 365 days a year. I work 18 hours a day. I live in Hawaii. I'm pale. I haven't even been out to play golf in, in, in a month. And it's like, I mean, I'm, I normally play every day if I can't, but that's just the, you know, the way things have been going, because on top of that, the way the, you know, the modern handicapping works, it's like we have a whole nother infrastructure that rivals around all of that, you know?
Mitch Wilson (1h 15m 58s):So it's like becomes even more
Big Al McMordie (1h 16m 2s):When you don't do a second game here. That's
Mitch Wilson (1h 16m 4s):Awesome. What are you guys?
Big Al McMordie (1h 16m 7s):Let's go to a second game. Talk about the New York giants here. They're off that 24 point loss last week. And one of the things I like to do is take teams off, blow out losses. And when you get a home underdog off a loss by more than 21 points, those teams are 2 38 and 180 4 against a spread that's 56 and a half percent, including 1 48 or 1 0 7 ATS in division. I'm sorry, in non division games. And that's the situation here when you've got the giants playing the Rams. This line was higher earlier in the week. I just looked at a little while ago. It's down to seven and a half. So some of the values being sucked away, but I do like the giants plus the seven and a half points.
Big Al McMordie (1h 16m 49s):The other thing to consider is that going back to 2017, when the Rams hired Sean McVay to be their head coach, they've got this dichotomy in a win there overall, he's done a really good job there, 41 and 32 with two pushes against the spread. But when they're awful, when they're 20 to 25 ATS, otherwise there's seven. And one, but off of that, when you can see that the Rams don't perform as well. And they're coming off that Thursday, when a big division we're against Seattle. So this is a let down spot historically for Mac-based teams. And I think there's a really good spot to step in here and take Daniel Jones and company plus the seven and a half.
Jo Madden (1h 17m 34s):I'm not loving the giants today. I just think they're going to struggle. I know general Jones, isn't feeling the best they say he's playing and he's going to come out. I don't love it. I think Sean McVay doesn't take his foot off the gas. I think he wants to get these blowout winds. I don't think he'll stop. They're not gonna go easy on this giants team. I can't get behind the giants today.
Mitch Wilson (1h 17m 58s):Teams coming off of a Thursday night game, 51.1% against the number. So it's pretty 50 50. It is what it is. But the thing is, it's like, you know, some of those teams lost the Thursday night game. Some of those team won the Thursday night game. There's really, there's not a lot to that. It'd be more teams with a winning record and coming off of a Thursday night game, it'd be the stat I'd be looking for on that one. But you know, I just think that without Saquon Barkley there, I don't know if the giants are the same. Tony is going to play, but he's dinged up. He also, they also get shepherd back. I dunno, the ramps in is Matthew Stafford. So, you know, we're going to see some bad decisions.
Mitch Wilson (1h 18m 39s):We're gonna see some really bad decisions, but Joe judge was a bad decision to bring in his head coach. So I don't know, this is just, you know, another one of these days, it's a short card today. So I don't know. I just think the Rams have more talent across the board. And I think Daniel Jones will be interesting to see just how healthy he is. And I think, I think against the ramps, he's going to need this mobility, especially without Parkway there. Cause you know, we haven't seen much from the giants backups.
Big Al McMordie (1h 19m 8s):Well, you know, today, my, for fans of survivor pools, we don't, we hardly ever talk about the survivor pool angle, but this year there haven't been any upsets with teams, lanes seven or more points. It was actually the one, the giants against the saints, but that's the only one the whole year. There's 21 out of the 22 games where NFL teams have been laying seven or more points they've won the game straight up. So it'd be interesting to see when that were in terms. And if you ever get an upset, cause you've got a couple of opportunities today, whether it's the, you know, the Colts or the, I don't know if Kansas city, if the lines at seven now, you know, against the football team, you've got the, the Rams against the giants, but eventually we're going to get a big upset in the NFL this season and maybe begin knocking some of those people out of those survivor pools.
Mitch Wilson (1h 19m 53s):Yeah, I think th I think, I think it's going to be the Colts, knock everybody out. I think that will be the one. I think there's a, there's actually a few today is a good day for that. You see it's a, those under the radar. So what do you have today at Pick Dawgz
Big Al McMordie (1h 20m 12s):Yesterday? We were four and four and football, but oh, and two in baseball. So I apologize to all who joined us for our baseball place yesterday, looking to bounce back on the diamond today, we're still 14 and four last 18 in baseball. And I've got a selection in the second game between the Braves and the Dodgers. I've got three NFL plays today. So not the biggest card yesterday. We had eight plays in football. We did go four and four, but we also cashed our featured play our mountain west conference game of the year on Nevada. So today just three plays in the NFL on a nice little run here in football for the season 19 and nine, going back to the preseason 23 and nine, my last 32. And I'm featuring today, my NFL game of the month for October, we cashed our NFL game of the month for September with the Ravens against the chiefs.
Big Al McMordie (1h 20m 58s):So don't miss October's number one, play it's up at Pick Dawgz premium right now. And then I've got two other plays around out the NFL card. And the best deal of all is to get on board for the two for one handicapper, special team yet with Jovon, who's having another great year in the NFL and you can join us, you know, all the way through Thanksgiving or all the way through the super bowl and take advantage of the two for one handicap or special.
Mitch Wilson (1h 21m 21s):Absolutely. Just a lot of good value out there today. It's small card. So, you know, tread lightly anything I'll usually is a good guy to help you through these NFL cards. It's like when he really loves it, he, he does. It's like, it seems like you don't have like a real, like a set amount of Picks. It's just whatever fits your formula. These are my picks, right? And it's kind of like, that's like me, I'm the same way. You know, it's like
Big Al McMordie (1h 21m 46s):Handicappers. I mean, we all know which handicappers area, there are some handicappers who will release literally every day on Sunday, three plates, whether they'd like three years old, like three it's exactly three. And I just think that's garbage handicap. And I think you have to have a methodology and you have to, when it meets your criteria, you give it out. When it doesn't meet your criteria, whatever that may be your pack, you know, you don't give it out. And that might be, you have 16 plays on one day and two plays on another day and it's not, I have three plays every day kind of mentality, just, you know, I'll get off my soap box.
Mitch Wilson (1h 22m 20s):I've Perth because I personally don't understand it myself. How, you know, a capper can have three plays on a 12 game NFL card, but also have three plays on 120 game college basketball Saturday. It just, it doesn't
Big Al McMordie (1h 22m 36s):Well but, but what you can't have is exactly three plates every day, you know?
Mitch Wilson (1h 22m 44s):I don't know. I just don't. I just think of, if you give me 120 games and you give me sides, I can play halves. I can play whatever I want, you know, basically 500, 500 different bets I can make. I'm sure I could find more than three if I really apply myself.
Big Al McMordie (1h 23m 0s):Yeah. I mean the more games you have, the more opportunity there is to find value. No doubt. All
Mitch Wilson (1h 23m 5s):Right. Well that was big out. We're going to have him again next week, as always in of course you can always get his picks at Pick Dawgz is also on the drive-thru show few days during the week. So be sure to tune in then five, 6:00 PM. Weekdays right here on our part.
Chris Ruffolo (1h 23m 21s):You guys talk to you next week.
Mitch Wilson (1h 23m 25s):Thank you. Best of luck out the book. Thanks. All right. Well that was Big Al as a once, again, lot of wisdom there, not just about, you know, the specific games that he went over and the angles, but just really about batting on sports, which is really what we're all here for. Right. And that's what we do, you know, we certainly don't apologize for it.
Jo Madden (1h 23m 48s):Absolutely. And he's killing it though. You guys head on over to Pick Dawgz dot com for his best premium picks.
Mitch Wilson (1h 23m 54s):He, yes. He's been killing it for a long time and you know, that's, that's the true test. I always say, you know, people can get hot for a day or for a week or even a month or even a year, but to do it over a year after a year, after a year, not easy to do no, no, we are. No matter if you're, you know, if, if you're, if you're out or if you're like some Twitter handicapper, we all have days where you just want to put your head in the sand, you know, and you gotta come back, stick with what you know, and, and come back tomorrow and you know, the ball, the ball can take funny bounces on you speaking about funny bounces.
Mitch Wilson (1h 24m 35s):We're going to bring Chris Ruffolo in next. And Chris, welcome to the show.
Chris Ruffolo (1h 24m 44s):Well thank you for having me. You funny bounces. I was trying to think cause some witty remark for that, but I could, I got with,
Mitch Wilson (1h 24m 53s):So the Jags, it looked like they ran the ball down to the goal line here, but it also looks like there was a fumble at the one foot line and it looks like it's Miami ball. It'll be interesting to see if they give it to the dolphins here or not. It looks like they're not. And it's the Jags who have marched down the field with the second half kickoff. But I've got to say that looked like a fumble to me. It'd be interesting to see if he recovered it. It's definitely out. I guess he recovered it anyways, Chris how's how are things going?
Chris Ruffolo (1h 25m 32s):Yeah. Good. And you had a great college football Saturday helped with the frustration of unloading all the boxes that we're still working through, but no I'm ready for NFL Sunday. It's going to be a good day.
Mitch Wilson (1h 25m 43s):This could be one of the longest moves in the history of moving. I had the over on the unpacking and I think I'm looking real good on it.
Chris Ruffolo (1h 25m 54s):Yeah. What was your, what was your render out again? A month and a half? Yeah.
Mitch Wilson (1h 25m 57s):Something like that. Yeah.
Chris Ruffolo (1h 25m 59s):Yeah. And so going for the under though, just give me a couple, give me a few more days.
Mitch Wilson (1h 26m 4s):Well, it's week seven of NFL. What have you got for us today?
Chris Ruffolo (1h 26m 10s):Well, I got two plates for you guys today. The first one, you know, I don't know about you guys, but I don't know why the calls are getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment where they're not getting any respect. And if you don't get the reference, Google it, I promise you, you won't regret it. But back to the point, you know, Joe burrow made some big mistakes in that loss to, to green bay, pare cost the interceptions and the throat issue. Post-game game was a concern, but I don't see him on the injury reports. That's good news for the Bengals who are going against the lions defense. It's been horrendous against the past the season. They're allowing a league high 9.3 yards per attempt, 13.7 yards for completion. And you know, Cincinnati, the offensive line is as good as it's been in quite a while. And when you have Joe burrow throwing the guys like Jomar chase Tyler boy T Hagans, it could be a very long day for this lion scene.
Chris Ruffolo (1h 26m 55s):Hasn't been doing much of anything, right? This season that's for the offense. Well, two words, Jared Goff and long story short, 17 points, or less than four straight games is not going to cut it against the Cincinnati team. I see the Bengals one and this one by at least a touchdown.
Jo Madden (1h 27m 11s):Yeah. If I could drop my mic here, I would say Jared golf drop the mic. No, Jared golf is terrible. He's worse than whence for me. So I'm Cincy minus the points all day long in this one, there's nothing left to say.
Mitch Wilson (1h 27m 26s):Yeah, there was actually someone in the YouTube comments that really did not like my Dan Campbell coaching commentary and actually came back and really believes that Dan Campbell is a legitimate NFL head coach when you know, every number, every record. Oh, they almost beat the bears. Yeah. They had three drives that died inside the five yard line. Well, they almost beat the Vikings. Yeah. But they, once again, they got beat at the end of the game. That's where the coaching comes in. You know, there is a lot of parts of, of sports where the coach really doesn't do anything. But when it comes time, those crunch time, I think in basketball, right. The coach really doesn't start coach until like the last two minutes of the game.
Mitch Wilson (1h 28m 7s):It seems like. And that's when they kind of get it done. But yeah, I think it's, it's not even just golf. It's the golf Campbell combo, the issue with the Bengals and the reason why they don't get any love is that's statistically. They're horrible. I mean that, and that's really what it comes down to is that when you have the 25th ranked offense in the NFL 23rd and passing our 22nd rushing, that's, that's part of the issue. You're also 21st in giveaways. So it's like, these are all liabilities on the Bengal side and then defensively, well they're good end points against. And that really is the thing that keeps them in it, their 10th against the run in the middle of the road, 16 dead, middle against the past.
Mitch Wilson (1h 28m 48s):So that's why they don't get any love is, is because of those numbers that they have. So they're sadly mediocre, but you know, the lions have a way of making everybody else look better. It's
Jo Madden (1h 29m 1s):The
Chris Ruffolo (1h 29m 7s):Well for my other one, well, we've made it four straight weeks for the Moneyline dog on the Sunday shows I'm going to try to make it five in a big way. Now I've said before, I'm not high on Davis mills as quarterback of the Texans, but realistically he had his best start in his career against the Patriots last week. And you know, it's not a shock considering he was going to get better over time and more comfortable. And it also doesn't help that I want to start his career mills was thrown to the bulls against the Browns again, which the Texans did cover, you know, mind you. And also he had a short week for his first NFL start and then the 40 nothing shutout to the bills. Well, a lot of teams are gonna lose to the bills comfortably this season and you know, the Colts. Yeah. They played stiff competition for sure. The Seahawks and Rams.
Chris Ruffolo (1h 29m 47s):And back to back weeks to start the year they lost to a desperate Tennessee team and week three before beating the dolphins and Week forum for their long-winded a year, then the cherry on top that 22 to three lead that was blown in last week's lost to the Ravens bottom line is this is a lot of plus minus save on, on the line with the Colts team. That's on a short week with, I'll say it Joe's favorite quarterback, Carson Wentz, who is, you know, has had a history of dealing with ankle issues. And in his career he's been turnover, prone. And, you know, add in the fact this is a division rivalry game and the loss could mean doom for both these teams at one in five. I think the Texans is alive dog at a plus 3 75 and I'm taking it on the Moneyline
Mitch Wilson (1h 30m 30s):Joe, what do you think?
Jo Madden (1h 30m 32s):Okay. If the Colts lose this one outright then went Stephanie, whereas quarterback than golf. But I don't know. I I'm, there's no way I'm taking the Texans on the Moneyline and this one, I hate this game. The more we talk about it, the more I hate it, just hate it. I think it's going to be an awful game. You're right. Mitch went sucks, texts and suck. I'm not watching. I don't want to watch this. I will watch it. I don't want to watch it.
Mitch Wilson (1h 31m 3s):I'll take the Texans on the Moneyline as well. I'm with Chris. I just think betting against Carson Wentz is really one of my favorite things though. I also think that, you know, the, the lack of love in the comments, you know, about, you know, the Texans just makes me like I'm even more here. So I'm to take the, I'm going to take the taxes. I think like Al said, you know, laying double digits with a bad team is never a good idea. Never ever. Well, what do you got for sale today at Pick Dawgz?
Chris Ruffolo (1h 31m 39s):Well, today I got my NFL fantastic five, five plays on the board that I love to for today's action. Come off a nice eight and three day yesterday, six and two in college football. We're going to carry that over to the NFL. So I got that for 34 95, or you always talk about the long-term passes and how this is the best time to do it because all the sports are overlapping. Three days we'll get MLB NBA and the Monday night or the seven day, we'll get you through to next week's college football and the 30 they'll get you into college basketball season. You know, this is a great time to, to go long-term whether it's just me or with someone else, part of the two foreign handicapper combo, that's some of the best values to go check it out over Pick Dawgz premium
Mitch Wilson (1h 32m 17s):Pick Dawgz package. Someone sent me an email about this. What is it? 239 bucks a month. I mean, it sounds, sounds cheap. So what is it
Chris Ruffolo (1h 32m 27s):So far? That's Rodd and I were putting out the puck Dawgz package. We've been known as the puck docs and truly joining the, the morning show and we were Rodd and I decided to put our heads together and we're putting out our best NHL plays. They're NHL exclusive to that package. So there's no nothing else. It's just NHL. So if you want to, if hockey bedding is something that you want to dip your toe into, definitely let us guide the way we got to some of our that's. You got to have the best hockey, Andy Carter.
Mitch Wilson (1h 32m 54s):Yeah. Or is it just your best consensus pick each day or is it just one pick a day?
Chris Ruffolo (1h 33m 1s):Okay. Sorry. On the, on the busier days, like the, the higher schedule things, we try to put out a three-pack on the games where there are days where it's only one to three games. We're usually just putting out a consensus, but still some of your, some better value than, than buying each day individually
Mitch Wilson (1h 33m 15s):For 239 bucks a month. Yeah. Oh, okay. I don't know what to say. I can't say it on the air anyways. Thanks Chris. For joining us, make it a winning day. And of course we appreciate you coming by, see Ruffolo every day on the drive-through at 6:00 PM Eastern time right here in the Pick Dawgz Channel. Of course, he also does the NHL videos with puck dog rods, wacky. So sure. To check all of those out and smash that like button that was Chris Ruffolo $239 a month for three Picks a day.
Mitch Wilson (1h 33m 59s):It's pretty good. What's that come out to?
Jo Madden (1h 34m 3s):I don't know. I don't know. Really? Really? Really?
Mitch Wilson (1h 34m 7s):Yeah. It's like 15 cents anyways. It's Rufallo math anyways. Yeah. Anyways,
Jo Madden (1h 34m 19s):Mitch, I can see your head calculating Maybe Rodd can clear this up.
Mitch Wilson (1h 34m 29s):I don't think it's, I don't think this is the time or place. Cause I would have to get out my Abacus and explain to explain to people exactly how this works in relation to everything else we're doing. But of course, Rodd is a regular on our, on our morning show and of course on our premium and on our VIP show as well. Rod welcome Marlin. So rod gave out Iowa and the premium yesterday. I didn't like it. I didn't have a premium on the other side or anything, but I just didn't like it. Or they gave out Purdue and I didn't like it, but, you know, cause I thought it was one of those plays that, you know, it was a sharp sucker play, you know, it's like the Indiana, like Indiana yesterday was right where the, all the sharps were all in Indiana.
Mitch Wilson (1h 35m 20s):So, so all of a sudden they're good, you know, but it's like, but Purdue just, I guess they just really add Iowa's number, but you know, and that's really just what it comes down to. You know? It wasn't anything, it wasn't like a huge surprise. It wasn't like, you know, I liked Iowa in the game. I didn't like them enough to put a premium though. That's for sure.
Rodd Zawacky (1h 35m 36s):I didn't think they were going to win. I didn't think he was gonna win it outright. Like I figured that I just skipped any points where it was a 10 point win all day, but we'll take it. That's why I took the points when,
Mitch Wilson (1h 35m 47s):To me that, to me, the sharp sucker play was, was Indiana. It's kind of like how they were all over the Cleveland Browns a few years ago, you know? And just got slaughtered week after week. It just looked like that sort of game or lucky to be. I mean, they'll argue, you know, all we were right. There were half a point and all this other stuff and you got slaughtered. It was like, it was a physical beat down. They were lucky to be there. You know, they were lucky to be. But anyways, when he, when he, when he got for us today,
Rodd Zawacky (1h 36m 18s):Well, we're going to, we're going to start with a here. We're going to surprise. I'm going to take the Detroit lions here to get their first wind on the Moneyline over the bangles here, Neely deep, this Detroit team. They're definitely scrappy bunch. They definitely are not just back then. And then they've been trying to win games and you look at the bangles actually. Oh, in five in the last five games. After allowing more than 250 yards passing and you also looked the bangles and the last 23 road games, there are two 20 and one straight up. So they only won twice in the last 23 road games have these bangles, the underdog in the series is a foreign one. The last five meetings and Detroit as a home dog at foreign one. The last spot.
Rodd Zawacky (1h 36m 59s):I like to try it here. I'm gonna take them on the Moneyline. I think they get their first win and upset. These bangles that everybody's jumping up on thinking it's the bank. Yeah. They're undervalued here. No, I don't think so. Detroit's undervalued here. I think that scrappy bunch gets her done today and get their first wind from Detroit.
Mitch Wilson (1h 37m 19s):Joe sounds like a hat Bet. A hoodie.
Jo Madden (1h 37m 23s):Yeah. I wanna, I wanna see the Bengals smoke golf all day. You look at Detroit, their own five against the spread in their last five home games against the Bengals. There is no way I'm taking Jared golf and the lions to do anything today. I really hope golf has a terrible, terrible day because he's a terrible quarterback.
Mitch Wilson (1h 37m 45s):Bengals also can get after the quarterback too. And I, I don't see golf. I mean, under pressure he's even worse. Yeah. I, I
Jo Madden (1h 37m 54s):Don't see going to throw it right to the Bengals defense.
Rodd Zawacky (1h 37m 58s):And just to hand it off, watch with Brian Today is given today. I hated him. So today I get to like, and you want to go? He's going to swiftly right front. Right? All by here we go. He still running.
Jo Madden (1h 38m 16s):Since he defense is going to cream him,
Rodd Zawacky (1h 38m 20s):That's what they want, man. I'm going to Detroit there.
Jo Madden (1h 38m 24s):Good luck.
Rodd Zawacky (1h 38m 31s):Then you're really going to hate the next one. Cause the next one I'm going to take is I'm going to take the giants plus the points as well. I think that that's way too many points against this. A Rams team. You look at their halves and their last 10 readings versus the giants. They're one and nine ATS
Mitch Wilson (1h 38m 46s):Because they had gone because they had the guy you're betting on in the other game. It's it's, it's, it's apples to oranges and it's like, you know,
Rodd Zawacky (1h 38m 59s):And these are also eight and three, their last 11 versus the NFC and also 20 and eight ATS. And our last 28 off of an eight, he has lost, I think Dan Jones comes back and he has a good game here today. Eight points too many for the Rams on the road. I'm gonna take the giants plus the points. Love it a couple of minutes since you guys don't like it.
Jo Madden (1h 39m 23s):Yeah, no like this rounds teams can pass the ball. They didn't get it downfield. They're second in the league at passing yards, they average 28.2 points per game against a beat up giants team that are missing players inside and out. Like no way, no way Rams all day long.
Mitch Wilson (1h 39m 42s):Yeah, definitely. You seeing a lot of money come here on the giants, the late money. And this is like York money. And I mean, this is sucker money. The giants' defense is just a SIF. I mean, it's not, it's not even all those offensive guys, Daniel Jones or any of that stuff. The giant Stevens is a sieve of sieves and it's the same guys that played last week against Dallas who really, I don't think have the as good or offense as the Rams. I think the ramps have that safety net, that Cooper cup. And you know, he, he has not been all that healthy as seasons go on, you know, year after year, but he is healthy right now and he is that safety net. And I just, I could see him just frustrating the giants all day.
Mitch Wilson (1h 40m 24s):We saw the Cowboys, just roll it up on this giant D last week in Dallas and well, I mean, you know, like as, as, as Mara said, the owner of the giants, if I was a fan, I would boot too. And I think that's what you're going to be doing. Rodd. You're going to be throwing some things at the TV. And this one 26th in points allowed the, the giants are this year, 28th against the run 22nd against the past and 29th in the NFL and yards allowed defense deep runs defense. I don't think so. I don't see it, but that's just me. And it was, what do you got for sale today at Pick Dawgz
Rodd Zawacky (1h 41m 9s):Bad for me over Pick Dawgz. I've got my NFL big Sunday ticket. We have a nice back back waiting days, one Friday, one Saturday. And then today I got my 10 star total over the week, my 10 star NFL, no limit game of the month included in my, in that big Sunday NFL ticket package grabbed my five best bets of a board. We don't have another winning day over at Pick Dawgz premium for like you guys were talking about earlier, jump aboard and the Pick Dawgz are at the park. Dawgz we've been rolling right along. We started off a little bump in the road, but we've been winning our nother wedding day over there. And we're rolling right along. I don't know. Maybe the price point isn't mixed wants to that because you can tell by the look on his face in the last second we were, it was like, so great job on that.
Rodd Zawacky (1h 41m 53s):Now, before that, that changes
Mitch Wilson (1h 42m 3s):Anyways. Thanks Rodd for joining us. Of course you can see ride everyday on our morning show. You can see them on our premium and VIP shows as well as on the hockey videos with Chris Ruffolo and Dawgz anyways, Joe winded down the show, just one more guest left. Everyone knows who that is. Mr. Happy himself. And one of my smiley ate my Brian Bitler t-shirt today
Brian Bitler (1h 42m 27s):Thing. Ding, ding, ding, ding,
Mitch Wilson (1h 42m 29s):Go off. So exude exudes happiness, but I'll
Rodd Zawacky (1h 42m 34s):Tell you
Brian Bitler (1h 42m 36s):I'm always happy when they S Jags Jags Jags are about to get their first w of the season. So it's shaping up to be a good day. And we're about to argue about the same game we've given out a couple times, but I really love it, man.
Mitch Wilson (1h 42m 51s):Are you loving
Brian Bitler (1h 42m 52s):Jared Goff today? I got to admit rods the bed rod, and really had a Rodan Big Al today. Both gave out a supremely great free Pick. So I hate to be a copycat, but that's
Mitch Wilson (1h 43m 4s):Oh, it's like gotta do it. I think going forward, what we'll do is we'll have the sign games because it's on the same game.
Brian Bitler (1h 43m 14s):Well, we, I didn't know beforehand that those guys are giving, but anyway, for me, for my plane and I think it could easily be a premium play. I got the giants here, plus the points they're down there, starting running backs, your Shaquan Barkley, but that loss really can be dealt with pretty easily. Daniel Jones. Would've made a big difference today. Lots of public love here for the Rams here in the road. Ram second back to back spots playing here at 1:00 PM. Giants are a team that always seems to play around that. Number ramps have played down to the lesser competition going on four against a spread versus a team with a losing record. Let's not forget the giants 20 and eight against the spread last 28 games falling in ATS loss. Brams just one to nine ATS.
Brian Bitler (1h 43m 55s):Last 10 meetings against the New York giants. Take the giants, plus the points for an easy cover today.
Jo Madden (1h 44m 4s):Okay. So let's look at a different angle at this game. I'm going to look at the under, I believe in the Rams scoring points today. I don't believe in the giant scoring points today. So I'm willing to hit that under in this one as well.
Mitch Wilson (1h 44m 18s):What else do you have for us, Brian? Okay.
Brian Bitler (1h 44m 20s):I'll tell you what. Well, I also liked the Kotler and the points, so we discussed these games, that non game.
Mitch Wilson (1h 44m 27s):Alright. Alright. Well, what do you got for sale today, Brian? When he got
Brian Bitler (1h 44m 32s):Thanks, NFL pounds zone three pack, you get three NFL winners for $40 at Pick Dawgz dot com 2316, and one last 40 NFL plays. So check out that premium pick package or the VIP plan subscribed to that. I'm going to give out one of them on there, hopefully a make up for yesterday's bad performance.
Mitch Wilson (1h 44m 51s):All right, thanks for joining us, Brian. Of course you can see Brian every day on our live shows and on our premium packages. Well, Joe, that wraps up another show for us. We've got the premium VIP show to go. Of course we'll be on and half-time for the early games as well as the late games and Sunday night football.
Jo Madden (1h 45m 12s):Absolutely. It's going to be a fun day of Mitch and I I'm here Live. Half-time Betting you guys, so make sure you join us.
Mitch Wilson (1h 45m 18s):Absolutely. Have a great day. Everyone. We appreciate each and every one of you and let's make it a winner.
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