Sports Betting Picks Podcast 10/16/21 NCAA Football Week 7 Picks, Props, and Parlays - Betting Advice

Joe D (38s):You know, in hindsight, Mitch, you know, knowing what we know now after to resigned and all these other things, I haven't read the Every, every article or column on it. So I can't speak totally in detail or educated about the emails or whatever was done wrong, but there was something looking back in hindsight, there was an odd feeling at the game, you know, throughout the game, there really was, there was obviously some things going on in the locker room or this week or the week leading up to the game that the public really didn't know about too much or, or what, you know, brushed stuff. And it showed during the Raiders were just flat. There was a lot of things going on. I will tell you this Mitch, the third it's the fourth time we've been there for a game.

Joe D (1m 20s):We saw three Raider games show. The BYU average only gave him the beginning of the season. But during the three Raider games, all three times the visiting teams were louder and seem to have more fans in the stands then Raider fans. And you know, you don't, I know that there's a transient town in a tourist town, but you know, they just wanted a protein for a long time. And I'm just trying to put something up on social media. I said, Vegas people, you wanted a protein. Get your butts out here to Allegiate man. I'm, it's kind of embarrassing when visitors are coming. You really only see that, to be honest with you, when Yankees travel, you see a lot of Yankee fans and you know, and when they are traveling, sometimes they seem a little more overwhelming, no matter where they play.

Joe D (2m 0s):Then the hometown team that are playing. This is three times we've been there for three home games, Mitch, three times the visiting fans simply I'll tell you there were more parents fans there than there was Raider fans

Dionne (2m 11s):And a good 70%. I think of the stadium was bears hands. I mean,

Mitch WIlson (2m 17s):I grew up in a tourist town as well in Miami and, you know, growing up a hurricane fan who were never really a very good team. It was pretty often that opposing fan bases would buy season tickets to the hurricane games just to be able to get tickets because they knew that a large contingent of fans would be going up Miami in November to go watch the Sooners, beat the crap out of the hurricanes, you know? And so they would buy, you know, an entire season tickets. It was cheaper than them scalping tickets, and then they would unload the other tickets to the other at the other fan base, you know, headquarters or booster clubs, you know, to, to do the exact same thing.

Mitch WIlson (2m 57s):And, you know, I think, I think Vegas kind of had that in mind, you know, when, when they got the Raiders, then they knew that was going to happen. And it's, it's, it's it's, you know, it's, it takes time. Also. I think what it's going to take is for them to really win, right? I mean, that's, that's what it takes. You know, it takes for them to really win, you know, to get fans, to show up.

Joe D (3m 17s):I agree, but you know, we're still a fun night and it really was just always a great event going there. We have a beautiful, it's a great stadium, great place, and it, we're seeing more and more people tell gate and it's easier. I mean, the first few events we attended there and Garth Brooks and then a few other shows, it was a nightmare getting in and out. Now you can get in and out no matter what, even if you get there an hour before game time, you're getting in and out, they shuffled traffic. There's no trouble, but the tailgating is kind of fun. Certain parking, lots that you park it around. The stadium are designated for tailgating and certain are not, which is kind of nice too. But the tailgating seems to be really nice. It's nice to see that here in Vegas, it really is.

Mitch WIlson (3m 54s):Well, speaking of Vegas, who do you like today, Joe?

Joe D (3m 59s):May I, I've got a nice game going off believe early our spice fairs. We're going to talk Texas, Oklahoma state my friends after beating up and see me after being up scores of 28 to seven and 41 to 23 and then blowing a game. And last week's embarrassing. 55, 48 was the rival walk almost. There's no doubt. Texas is not going to take the five and Oklahoma state team lightly, although in his first year at the helm, Hey coach, Steve Sarkeesian knows very well that the last four meetings with the driver were each song by seven points or less with two overtimes. Yes, the cowboy defense is pretty darn good. I'm not taking away anything from that. I'm not gonna argue that, but the Longhorns offense category will light them up. The problem I feel oaky state is going to run into here is very anemic offense.

Joe D (4m 41s):They account for nearly 20 points per game, less than Texas. And the long as we all know, possess a top 10 rushing attack, meaning that we'll keep the Cowboys defense on the field and wear them down. The Opie state offense. They just won't have the time of possession to do the same here. My friends here's some ATS stats, Texas 61 at west 700. Favorite 62, the last state overall, they do get the us better speed. I liked the warheads in this one, guys. I think they're going to win this game. I think they run this by seven to 12 points. Rich.

Mitch WIlson (5m 12s):Joe, what do you think of this one?

Jo Madden (5m 14s):Yeah. I'm with Joe on this one. I think the Texas offense is just too strong compared to this Oklahoma one. Oklahoma is going to struggle to get those points on the board. And I think Texas will pull away. You know, these defenses are great. Oklahoma has a good defense, but it has struggled in areas. And I think it will really struggle against Texas today. So it may Texas minus the points

Mitch WIlson (5m 41s):I got. I got to say that Steve Sarkeesian's on my list of coaches. I can't stand this. Guy's never been successful at the head coaching level. And I'm shocked. He got the Texas job. I think that he's kind of like a waystation, you know, he's kinda like he's just there until they get the guy that they really want. So I think that they don't even want to win so they can quickly get rid of this guy. He was a bust out at Washington. He was a boss stout at USC. And I expect him to bust out of Texas to it's going to take losses in games like this, to get him the hell out of there in a hurry. So it's going to be interesting to see exactly how this one goes, Texas offense has been a sieve, and I think there's nothing worse than being a fan of a team and seeing your team lose late.

Mitch WIlson (6m 23s):It's like, if you're going to lose early, you're going to get run over. Hey, you know what? Romanelli on. He'll tell you, but while maybe he's never seen it, but I've been there at the swamp. You know, the VOC, the swamp you go there when it's 48, nothing in the other way and see what it looks like in the third quarter, it was like selected. It's like select a seat day. Trust me, I bet. But you know, I think that, you know, it's that type of situation in Texas. You're damned if you do. And you're damned if you don't. So I don't know. I liked I'm a defense guy and I think the defense for Oklahoma state just a little bit too tough. I think this game is going to come down late. When you look at the historical games between these two teams, they're tight. Even last year when overtime, it was a seven point game, but it went over time.

Mitch WIlson (7m 6s):The games have been very, very tight. So this could be four. This could be a three is going to be anywhere within there. Not, I just, like I said, I'm anti Sarkeesian. So it's just, it's just tough. It's just tough for me to get there. It's like, like I said, at the beginning, you know, it's like, there's certain teams and coaches, I just get stuck on I'm. So anti Sarkeesian, I can't help myself.

Joe D (7m 28s):I'm not a big fan of Steve Sarkeesian. I agree with you. But I think you have to last weeks, just you have to being up and blowing that game against one of their biggest rivals. You know, they have to bounce back here and you know, I'm not a big fan of cyber fusion, but I do like this Texas team, I think does a lot of work on it. I do think that their running game can keep the oaky state defense at bay a little bit. I just don't see. I do the mismatch, Mitch and offense. I just don't think.

Mitch WIlson (7m 55s):And the laundry, believe me, the laundry is going to be protects us all day long on the field. You know, it it's just the way that it is. But with Texas leaving the leaving the big 12, I'm not so sure they're going to get the love that they normally get from the officiating crew. So it's like this, this, this could be a good one. Definitely a definitely a good, good one for the fans, for sure. You go Dionne. How about you?

Dionne (8m 21s):And, well, I have one game for ya unless you looked at the new polls this week, brace yourself. Iowa is the second ranked team in the nation. Not only are they six and old, straight up, they're also five and one against the spread. Once again, this season, the Hawkeyes are getting the bettors paid their defense, which ranks fourth and College Football is shutting down offenses completely so much. So they really don't have any impressive stats in passing or rushing. And still they are scoring 31 and a half points per game. The boilermakers haven't, which haven't mustered more than better than 13 points in any of their last three games, won't be able to move the chains at all. They're Owen seven ATS, the last seven in conference play Owen six, the last six, following an ATS loss and two and eight against the spread, the last 10 overall.

Dionne (9m 6s):So I'm going to play Iowa here,

Mitch WIlson (9m 10s):Joe, what do you think?

Jo Madden (9m 13s):You know, I like it. I like Iowa. I also like the under in this game. I think we see two defenses controlling the clock in those game, heavy run games. I was seven and one against a spread like Dionne said again, this is Purdue team that hasn't been covering their two and eight against the spread in their last 10 Iowa and a heavy push on that under for me.

Mitch WIlson (9m 35s):Yeah. Purdue is one of these teams that, you know, and I have this discussion with, you know, in the morning show you guys all the time and it's a team where the numbers might not show them as a public dog, but there are super public dog in this game. Purdue is super public. Every comment I read is about like how Purdue gives, you know, how Brahm gives Ferrand fits and all of these things like that. Yeah. Then you started hearing stuff like that. I just started Bet in the other side, even though it was tough, it was tough for me to get to Iowa. And this one, because obviously they have the momentum, they have the public backing, they have all of those things. And plus, you know, 11 and a half points in a, in a conference game.

Mitch WIlson (10m 16s):But at the end, you know, and, and Brahms record against parents. But the issue is, is that you have a very public dog here in Purdue and that is death. And I think I would just, you know, what we've seen from them is that the expectations, it seems almost every week now, it's you you're expecting them to crumble. I mean, back to the Iowa state game, they were dogging that game, right? It's like, I mean this, you know, even this is a very good deep bench and Purdue, they couldn't move the ball on Minnesota. Good luck is what I got to say to those guys. I liked the team. I like the team total under on Purdue as well in this one, Joey had got another game for us.

Joe D (11m 3s):Me, no, you know what? I, I, I had a game on the you've output, the line, moved on it so much that I put it up as a premium play this morning. I've got some things on the board. I could tell you about it if you want. But I do want to say Mitch, I don't know if you realize this, but being our fearless leader today is national bosses day. And what they say happy national boss will say to the boss in charge, but I want to do make one more point though. Mitch, if you notice that between Deanna, myself, I'm the one holding the coffee cup that says like a boss. So, so she may be beating my College Football this season, but I'm still the boss in this house. That's all I wanted to say.

Mitch WIlson (11m 44s):Dionne D on, if you could just take, take your phone, turn the camera on. When you guys come off the air, I just want and throw that one on my YouTube channel. I could use the 10 million views on that. we'll see the who's the boss discussion from the Demicco house.

Jo Madden (12m 6s):Absolutely. I plead the fifth on this one

Mitch WIlson (12m 10s):And now I don't think Dionne cares what the mug says anyways. We appreciate you guys as always, we'll see you tomorrow morning for NFL Sunday. Thank you very much. That was Joe and

Jo Madden (12m 24s):All the best in your best today, guys have a great day. Good luck to everybody out there have a winning day.

Mitch WIlson (12m 28s):Thank you for having us. All right. That was, that was Joe and Dionne. And of course there with us just about every single weekend, you can get there, Picks over at Pick Dawgz. Didn't do the promo section. Forgot all about that, but that's okay. You can get Dionne has been lighting up the leader board, of course in Joe. Well, he's been around forever. He's lit up many leaderboards in his day. Got a lot of guys with us today. And so I think that Iowa game is super interesting. I mean, like I said, it's one of those games where if you look at the numbers, it looks, you know, very public Iowa. But like I said, you look at the, you look at like the, the social media of the game and it's all Purdue.

Mitch WIlson (13m 13s):And it's like, that is very scary and a very bad sign. And I think what we've seen historically, you know, looking at these games that we've looked at the last several months, you know, as we've been kind of looking at what is public and what isn't, because we, the data that shows us where this, where the bats are coming from, they don't tell us where that is, right. Where it's coming from. So how do we even know that it's true? You know, they could just be making it up. And I think in some cases, I think in some cases they do, I honestly don't, I, I, I have no idea where it comes from. If they don't tell us where it's coming from, then how could it be trusted? You know, is what

Jo Madden (13m 51s):Yeah. And I, and that's why I love the under, in this one. I think, you know, we look at these defenses, we look at what they can do against each other. I think that under is the solid play of the day for that one.

Mitch WIlson (14m 2s):Well, speaking of unders let's bring in Ron Romanelli, Scott, his Euston gear on and Morgan and Ron,

Jo Madden (14m 11s):More than guys, how you guys

Mitch WIlson (14m 12s):Doing today? Good. We didn't give you any, any a heads up there. We just kind of brought you. I saw you looking at the camera. I figured it was okay. Normally I do a lineup and everything, but I didn't do that today. So they will try. And for the rest of you guys, we'll try and give you a little bit of a heads up as SU

Jo Madden (14m 30s):To keep everyone on their toes.

Mitch WIlson (14m 31s):I think it is. I think I'm ready. You know, it, this, this way, this way, they're in the game. You know, so for, I always like to ask Romanelli about the, the Gator games and today, interesting one at LSU, of course, LSU went into Gainesville last week, last year, and beat the Gators. When the Gators thought they had a shot at the playoff, you know, they were thinking playoff LSU goes in there and beats them up. It wasn't, it like a drop punt or something happened.

Ron Romanelli (15m 4s):It was a bunch of stuff. I was actually at the game, Marco Wilson through one of the LSU players shoes. And

Mitch WIlson (15m 12s):It was just, it was the shoe throwing incident.

Ron Romanelli (15m 16s):Mr. Field goal. It was foggy. It was a crazy night a night to remember, but for the wrong reasons,

Mitch WIlson (15m 21s):The bad LSU team, too know, but you know, Florida, LSU has always been a rivalry game once in the west and ones in the east yet they play each other every single year. So that, to me, that is when you know, it's a rivalry game. It's kind of like Ohio state, Michigan kind of like Florida state, Miami opposite sides of the same conference yet. They play each other every single year. And you know, LSU a couple of years ago, tried to duck the Gators in their game with the hurricane. The game was supposed to be at Gainesville. It was delayed postponed because of a hurricane they'd decided to move the date to try and find a date. LSU kept putting them off, putting them off, putting them up finally, at the end of the season, they said, well, we just don't, we're just not going to play the game.

Mitch WIlson (16m 7s):And Florida's like, oh yes we are. And then they said, well, we don't want it. We're not going to travel to play there. Okay. Well, we'll show up at your building and that's exactly what they did. They played a game for free, right? They didn't charge admission to the game and said free for everybody we're going to. And they went in there and they busted them up. Right. They just, plus they were so mad, they just busted them up. But the thing is Dan Mullen, he's a guy that busts up the bad teams. Right. And he doesn't really hasn't really busted up the good teams throughout his career. So I dunno, this LSU team looked pretty bad last week against Kentucky.

Ron Romanelli (16m 41s):Yeah. I mean, yeah. I was a little bit surprised to see that spread so steep and Florida's direction, but I think it just shows you, this is not a good LSU team, especially offensively. I mean, just not, they weren't able to move the ball at all last week against Kentucky. And I know Kentucky's are solid defense, but still it was just Ugh, ugly performance. And I think both teams are trending downwards, but I think Gators are more than likely pull this one out.

Mitch WIlson (17m 7s):I, I like the gainers in this one as well. I just think that LSU, the quarterback plays so bad, Florida. Of course the quarterback play not, not much better, but I just think that what we saw from LSU is some is some big holes on the defense. And I think with the big injury now at LSU, they're all American corner. I'm out for this one. And I don't know if Scott for the season or not, but he's their best player is out for LSU. So that is that, you know, when you have a team that's not all the way there that usually will leave a mark, you know? So anyway, so it was like talking Florida football with you anyways. What do you got going on for us today?

Ron Romanelli (17m 49s):Oh, the first game I'm gonna look at is also in the sec. It's at Ole miss Tennessee game should be a great one to watch. And you look at this all miss defense, allowing 31 points per game and allowing a 438 yards per game. The rush defense has really, really struggled, especially as of late last week against Arkansas gave up six yards per carry, 350 rushing yards. And then a few weeks ago against Alabama also got burned on the ground 210 rushing yards allowed you got a Tennessee team playing at home. That's able to run the football. I really liked that in a home dog. Can they move the ball on the ground in Tennessee has done it all season long, 254 rushing yards per game for Tennessee. One of the best teams in the country in terms of running the ball 5.3 yards per carry.

Ron Romanelli (18m 33s):We know Nealon stadium. It's not an easy place to play. And this is all misses. Second Truro game of the season, their first true

Mitch WIlson (18m 40s):Road game at Alabama, they got squashed. I mean, it was 2,291 yards, only 21 points for one of the best offenses in the country. I'm say in Tennessee is going to hold them to that number. But you know, Tennessee's defense, it's been solid this season 22 points allowed per game. I haven't had the hardest schedule, but they faced some pretty decent offenses in Florida, Missouri Pittsburgh. So, you know what I think Tennessee is a very live dog in this game. And I actually think the points could be in play. We saw last week, Ole miss and Arkansas, you know, score for score for score. And then Arkansas decided they wanted to go for, to go for the win. Couldn't get there. But a one point loss that would fall right into the points in this week, in that two and a half with Tennessee.

Mitch WIlson (19m 20s):So I'm going to take the points with Tennessee. I think they have a great shot at pulling off the upset, but I'll take the points just in case. Cause I could see a one or two point game either way, Joe, what do you think?

Jo Madden (19m 32s):Yeah. I'm with you, Ron. This one is going to come down to a last possession kind of game. It scares me taking either side in this one, especially when we look at old, miss against Tennessee is four or five covering that spread. So I have a kind of lean on old miss, but if Tennessee can get the ball in their hands for that last drive, Tennessee will come out on when this, so this is what I'm staying off. It's too close of a spread in this one. I'm in a high scoring offensive battle. So I'm off it, but best of luck with Tennessee, I can see them absolutely pulling it out and there's value there.

Mitch WIlson (20m 13s):Yeah. I, I love Neyland stadium. Just disclaimer here. It's one of my favorite places, see College Football and some of the nicest people in all of College Football, just great, great crowd. And it's like, what does it hold like a hundred ten, one twenty, something like that. It is massive

Ron Romanelli (20m 35s):Rock.

Mitch WIlson (20m 37s):It's unbelievable. You know, drive there through the smoky mountains. It's system believable. Right. It's crazy. But anyways, I think that this is going to be a hell of a game. And I think, you know, when you have a total in that, I don't know, what is it? 14 touchdown range, something eighties 82. So it's at 11. So just, just south of 12 touchdowns. I dunno. I like the over it's like it just seems they put out the big number. And the thing about this one is we saw, you know, last week, you know, Joe and I each did a Pick at the end of the show. I gave out the over in the old miss Arkansas a hundred and something.

Mitch WIlson (21m 19s):Right. But I think that this game has that type of potential to I do. I think that Tennessee is there is, is definitely headed in the right direction for the first time in a while. And it's been a while since Tennessee has been relevant probably since 98, right? Maybe 1998 when Peyton man and graduated with 97. So it was probably 98 the year they won after Peyton Manning left, right team Martin steam won the national championship. I would say, you know, college football is better when teams like Tennessee are good. I, I hope Tennessee wins. I'm rooting for Tennessee, but I really think it's an over game for me.

Ron Romanelli (21m 59s):Yeah. It should be a great game. And I just like the points could be in play. It's just, you know, just like last week when I came on here, I took Virginia. It was just like a score for score kind of game. But it's getting any kind of points in those types of games, even at home, you know, especially at home, I think there's some value there. So it may not be the prettiest one if you're, if you don't want to watch it, cause you nervous with the bed that's might mean you don't want to watch this one. Cause all miss could go up, you know, early, just so we saw Texas last week, 28 to seven, you're thinking, oh I got that one in the bag. And then Oklahoma comes out. Not only did they win that covered the spread. So you know, this, this could have that similar type of game, but it should be a good one in the sec.

Jo Madden (22m 36s):Absolutely. And as soon as Tennessee's run game can work out where those holes are and old Mrs. Defense, they will add the points to the board too. So it's going to be a fun one. I think definitely definitely tight.

Mitch WIlson (22m 54s):Do you have another game for us or is

Ron Romanelli (22m 56s):Yes I do. You got one more in the mountain west today. It's Colorado state New Mexico and you look at this Colorado state team, horrible start to the season. They lost to an FCS, South Dakota state of pretty good FCS team, but not, you know, no excuses there to lose by almost 20 points. Then they lost a Vanderbilt and other bad loss for Colorado state looks like the season's going to be over right away, but they go out to Toledo, a tough Mac team. They beat them 22 to six. Then they go to Iowa, obviously top four ranked team now. And they are actually leading 14 to seven and a half time in that game at Iowa, they only lost by 10 points and held Iowa to 278 yards. So the defense really improving.

Ron Romanelli (23m 36s):Then they go back home. They play San Jose state and other tough team, tough defense. They put up 32 points against San Jose state beat them 32 14. So this Colorado state team improve mightily over the past few weeks, their defense has been fantastic. Allowing less than 300 yards in each of the last three games. No offense is doing it on the ground. They've been getting 200 rushing yards or more in three of the last four games that they played. And you look at the opposite side, you've got a New Mexico team that had a pretty decent start to the season. They played some Week teams, Houston Baptist and New Mexico state got winds in those. But at Texas a and M they got shut out 34, nothing at UTEP 20 to 13, they lose at air force 38 to 10. They got blown out and then they got blown out last week or the last game against San Diego state 31 to seven.

Ron Romanelli (24m 21s):The offense has done nothing, especially on the ground. They're not doing much in the running game. The defense has given up the run over 200 yards rushing the last two games. This was just a, not a good New Mexico team facing the Colorado state team. That's improving every single week. I don't know how this line is so low at 11. I could see Colorado state winning by three touchdowns, at least two touchdowns. So I'll lay the points with the Rams of Colorado state. It's not really a tough home environment for New Mexico. So I'm not worried about the road game. I'll lay the points with Colorado state,

Mitch WIlson (24m 52s):Joe.

Jo Madden (24m 53s):Yeah. I'm with you Ron, on this one, you know, we have two offenses that really have struggled for both these teams. Both teams have struggled on the defensive side as well, but plain and simple, the Rams are the better team paper wise. I test-wise everything. This team is gonna come out. They're gonna be able to run the ball against this defense. That is terrible against the run. Give me the Rams all day long to get this done. New Mexico also hasn't been covering the spread. They haven't been playing while at home. They're just not a team that put money on the season at all.

Mitch WIlson (25m 27s):I'm with I'm with you guys. And this one I, I gave out Colorado state and my Pick Dawgz parlay and I felt pretty competent. I was like, I kind of regretted giving it out there cause I was should've given it out as a premium. I just, I just loved it. So yeah, I think Colorado state all day and twice on Saturdays. What do you got for sale today, Ron?

Ron Romanelli (25m 54s):Yeah, I'd say we got it locked and loaded car to juicy College Football card and also a pretty hefty NHL card off to a winning year in the NHL. But today you can get my top six College Football plays. And I also throw in my NHL play in the night, all seven plays for just $45. It's about $6 40 cents of Pick can't beat that price. I'm having a good couple days of past few days and HL is starting to heat up and today's going to be a big day in College Football, really like in the car today. So join me at Pick Dawgz premium and we'll put some money in your pocket.

Mitch WIlson (26m 25s):All right. Well good luck to you, Iran. We, of course we appreciate and we will see you tomorrow.

Ron Romanelli (26m 33s):All right guys, what's up? What's

Mitch WIlson (26m 34s):Up with the Houston?

Ron Romanelli (26m 36s):Yeah, I got to mention it. So, you know, last week Houston took on a two lane and I had the over in the premium area in that one, it was looking pretty good the whole way, but Houston started to pull away and the game script kind of forced me in a bad spot where Houston was just chewing the clock, running the ball and I didn't look good. It looked like they were just gonna, you know, ease the game out. And it was going to go under the total. But with a minute left, they had one more play that they were going to run before they were going to start needing the ball and just end the game. But they had one more run at it at the 35 yard line and Alton McCaskill. My favorite person in the world, he got the ball and obviously two lanes going to stack the box and just try to stop the run. But he juked when a man and had open field, he didn't pull a Nick.

Ron Romanelli (27m 17s):Shelby went right in the end zone, touchdown catch the over and right away I went online, but my hat and my shirt, big Houston fan now and love Walton McCaskill. So that's why I had to represent the cougars today.

Mitch WIlson (27m 30s):Go cougars,

Ron Romanelli (27m 31s):Go kooks.

Mitch WIlson (27m 33s):Alright, well there you have it.

Ron Romanelli (27m 35s):That's my story. And I'm sticking to it.

Mitch WIlson (27m 39s):It's a nice story we have. That was, we appreciate you coming on Ron. And of course we look forward to seeing you tomorrow. That was a Ron Romanelli. Now next we're going to have Jovan Burts, give him a little heads up there. Something that we haven't been doing a great job at on this show, but Jo so far a couple Capra's out. Anything, jump off the page at ya here.

Jo Madden (28m 7s):No, nothing's really jumping off the page at me. After talking to these guys, we've got some great games and I'm excited for the ones that they've covered. Couple I'm looking to stay away from, but it's going to be a fun day of college.

Mitch WIlson (28m 22s):I'm a little bit, I'm a little bit, I'm mad that I didn't give Colorado state at as a, as, as a premium. I I'm

Jo Madden (28m 33s):Kinda, I didn't either.

Mitch WIlson (28m 35s):I'm kind of a little miffed about that because I really, I really liked that one too. And oh, well it

Jo Madden (28m 44s):Definitely is a great one. So you guys jump on that.

Mitch WIlson (28m 49s):Yeah. I lost my, I lost my window, but now I've found it again. I'm having some difficulties back here. Yeah.

Jo Madden (28m 59s):I tell you sometimes I do the same thing. I don't know where they go. Just disappear.

Mitch WIlson (29m 5s):What would happen is I came in and all my screens were blank. I have like a bunch of monitors on my desk and I, you know, all around and everything I came in and everything was blank. So it happens some days, but we've got Jovan with us now. And here he is Giovan. Welcome to the show.

Ron Romanelli (29m 23s):Good morning.

Mitch WIlson (29m 24s):How's it gone this morning? You ready for some College Football action. I'm ready every week. Well, Giovan lives in the Boston area. And I got to say one of the nicest areas in the country around this time of year, the foliage is usually off the chain. How's it looking right now? It's starting to really turn up there.

Jovan Burts (29m 45s):Yeah. Leaves on the ground. You know, colors, colors galore on the trees, no leaves falling off, you know, the cause you know, filled up with them with leaves. You know, that sort of thing.

Mitch WIlson (29m 58s):We, we, we don't get that here. So it's kind of, you know, it's just a different, different world. We just have colors all the time, you know, bright colors all the time.

Jovan Burts (30m 7s):Keep rubbing

Mitch WIlson (30m 8s):It in match. It's okay. Don't worry about it, Joe. It's all good. It's

Jovan Burts (30m 12s):Not cold yet. Here

Mitch WIlson (30m 13s):I was. I was saying, you know, you got to stop worrying about me really. Just don't worry. I'm going to be okay. But I really liked today's College Football card as well. So what have you got going on for us to get things started?

Jovan Burts (30m 32s):Yeah, so I got two plays on by particular like both totals. So the first one I'm gonna gonna look at is Kentucky going into Athens, playing the number one team in the nation to Georgia bulldogs. Now let's just get this one about the way Georgia bulldogs, number one defense in the land, you know, from top to bottom. So Kentucky is not going to get anything. They might not sniff the on the end zone, you know, in the last two games, no, they vouched scored the two opponents, which is Arkansas and Arkansas whose Auburn?

Jovan Burts (31m 11s):71, 71 to 10. Yeah. And I don't. And I don't look at, I don't look at Kentucky as anywhere near having the office of fire power as Arkansas. So I just think that they're not going to get, they're not going to really get much, you know, on the ground, which is what they do. They, they, they, they got a good run in the TAC, but dealing with Georgia, it's not just not going to happen. But on the other side you have Georgia. The last two years they played Kentucky. They've only managed 14 points and 21 points.

Jovan Burts (31m 51s):So, and Kentucky does have a good defense. No, they phone go on and on their own. So with this low total, I just don't think I just don't. I just don't think that they're going to get there.

Mitch WIlson (32m 7s):Well, since you brought it up, I have to ask, where does the name smoke rank and the all-time College Football name list. Is he somewhere in between? Maybe I am hip and some, so, I mean, he's definitely gotta be up there, right? I mean, Kavachi smoke. It's like you don't only hear that one every day, but when you watch Kentucky certainly has been carrying the rock really well. Of course, Rodriguez has done a nice job there. It'd be interesting to see how those guys do against that. George and T though, Joe, would he think,

Jo Madden (32m 39s):Yeah, I'm with you on the under, on this one, this is going to be a game in the trenches for both these teams, the defenses are both so strong. You know, Georgia is only allowing an average of 5.5 points per game for their opponents. Kentucky is still phenomenal as well. At 17.5, this is going to be a strong, heavy, defensive game where you know, these teams are going back and forth, limited scoring. So give me

Mitch WIlson (33m 3s):This one comes down to the short field for me. It's like, whoever can create that shortest, short, shorter field is going to win and cover this game. I think George is going to win the game. I just think it's a matter of how many points Kentucky can score and how many points they can keep Georgia from scoring. Obviously, if they can create a longer field for Georgia, it's going to make it a little bit tougher on them. One issue with Kentucky has been is that under stoops, their first six games they've been really good. And then the last six games, they have not been very good. And then they usually will play okay in the ball game. So it's like, we need to watch out for that as well. But this should be a great one between the hedges. I have no play in this game. That's for sure not going anywhere near this thing, but I will be watching as a fan.

Jovan Burts (33m 50s):Absolutely.

Mitch WIlson (33m 52s):You got another game for us as well or just one today.

Jovan Burts (33m 55s):Yeah. Well, we're going to stick 'em we're going to stick with the sec. You know, I, I kinda liked that CS STC, you know, Betting, I just liked the way they play, you know, Mo mostly defense, but you have some authentic teams, you know, so we're, we're going to tackle this old missing Tennessee game. You know, I'm looking at the total on this one and contrary to a lot of people I'm on the under, in this one, you know, I think with when you're dealing with two high powered offenses, you know, everyone expects from the opening opening kickoff for it to be scoring. And I think that in this game, they're going to start off slow. Now you look at Tennessee's defense, they actually do play some sort of defense.

Jovan Burts (34m 37s):You know, they, they're 46 in the country and George is allowed and they have a hell of a, a hell of a Russian Dom, Russian defense, you know, so, you know, there's going to be straight up against strength. You know, I'm old Mrs. Number five in the country and run in, in there running attack. And so I think that starting off in that, at least in the first quarter, maybe going into the second quarter that we're going to see, we're not going to see sevens on the board. We might see a couple of threes. We might see, no, you might see a zero nodes. Sometimes you have to anticipate that even if it's two offensive juggernauts, they might not, you know, just like the, like the world on fire now later on in the game, you know, they might get, they might, they might, you know, start scoring.

Jovan Burts (35m 29s):But I just think in this one, it's gonna fall just below the, the total, which is, you know, huge 80, 82. So that's why I'm looking at on this one. They start off slow in just, just, just, just, just doesn't get to get to the total on this one.

Mitch WIlson (35m 47s):I love saying 12 touchdowns, Joe.

Jo Madden (35m 52s):I think this one flies over, I'm looking for this pig skin to be flying back and forth on the field of this one. I would take all of the overs old miss team total over first half over game over. I love a high scoring game and this one I don't see, I don't see it hitting below 85.

Mitch WIlson (36m 11s):Call me square. I'll take the over. Also in this one, I don't carry all these squares.

Jovan Burts (36m 17s):You'll know by half time what it's going to be, we'll

Mitch WIlson (36m 19s):Know in the first five minutes. And we'll know in the first five minutes, you know, last night, you know, in the game that, you know, I thought it was clear over all the way that, that north Texas, you know, Marshall game, we saw 49 points in the first half, and then there was no points in the third quarter. So you're never really sure how these things are gonna go, but, you know, I think

Jo Madden (36m 42s):Like that drive me crazy. You think you've got it in the bag by halftime?

Mitch WIlson (36m 46s):Yeah. Oh, and, and, you know, the Monday night game looked to be purely over, right. You know, in the first half and

Jovan Burts (36m 53s):Then points in the first quarter

Mitch WIlson (36m 55s):And then it went away and then went way under. So you just never really sure how it's going to go out. But yeah, I think that, you know, we just, haven't seen the defense from Ole miss yet to, to make me believe that they're going to stop anybody. And maybe if Tennessee tries to go, you know, a more deliberate pace, but I don't even think they know how to do that either. I don't think they have much defense either. So it should be a, it should be a good one either way. I don't know. I just like saying, I just like saying 12 tucks. Yeah. It's three touchdowns per quarter. That's basically what we're looking at.

Jovan Burts (37m 35s):I think it might have, let's do it when I have less to do with the defense and more to do with no offensive execution.

Mitch WIlson (37m 42s):I will tell you one thing this'll be a great place to be today is that Neyland stadium. It's probably going to be beautiful there. And like we talked about earlier, just I think, you know, when you get these sec games and you know, at this time of year, and it's just, you know, what college football is all about. It's like, I mean, I, you know, I went there as a visitor, you know, and it was, you know, they got me too, so I was ready to buy some tenancy gear to the big T you know, and it was, what do you, what do you got for sale today at Pick Dawgz?

Jovan Burts (38m 17s):Yeah, so I got my Saturday shootout, nine, nine plays on four for my package. No 49, 99. You know, last week I left a couple of one, the boy it had more to do with the selection process than the games cause I had winners. But in that, no, you kept the games. And then you get to the second part, which is a crucial part, which is the selection process and what you're going to put on as a premium and what you're going to leave by the wayside. And, you know, I made a mistake with a couple that, you know, I second guess myself and I paid, paid the price for it, but you know, this week, no, I'm, I'm coming in, locked and loaded for this Saturday. And I think I got nine that, that are gonna be some real hitters.

Jovan Burts (39m 0s):So check them out.

Mitch WIlson (39m 5s):All right. That was a Jovan. We appreciate you coming by. You're going to be by tomorrow as well.

Jovan Burts (39m 13s):No, absolutely.

Mitch WIlson (39m 15s):All right. We'll see you tomorrow. Then for NFL Sunday, Giovan, Burts lighten up, lighten it up. And it was Joe, you know, two different opinions now on this Tennessee Ole miss game, you know, over under it's like, I don't know. I just see a ton of points in this thing.

Jo Madden (39m 34s):So do I and you know, a couple of mistakes it could go under, but I don't think these two teams make mistakes, not with the holes in both of their defenses. I think we just see a high power

Mitch WIlson (39m 45s):When you get into those, when you get into those 80 total, you know, who knows, but the guy that knows about, you know, big totals is Chris. Ruffolo, he's going to be up next with us. And you know, Chris's been doing a lot of hockey recently too, so maybe we'll have to see, I know you're a big hockey person, Joe, and everyone knows I'm not a big hockey person. So we will probably get his take on some of that. And you know, the way the season has started in the NHL, it's we've seen everybody play, I think at this point. Yeah. So you

Jo Madden (40m 25s):Guys have,

Mitch WIlson (40m 26s):I haven't, I haven't seen them, but I know that you guys have been watching it for me.

Jo Madden (40m 32s):Well, my Calgary flames play today, that will be exciting to watch.

Mitch WIlson (40m 36s):Well, we bring in Chris and Chris, what do you think about this NHL season so far? Any big surprises?

Chris Ruffolo (40m 44s):Well, we've taken our lumps. That's that's for sure. It's been just a lot of upsets.

Mitch WIlson (40m 50s):I said, are there any big surprises we know, we know, I don't think you'd taken your lumps. I'm just kidding.

Chris Ruffolo (40m 57s):No, I'm the Anaheim. And I'll give the Anaheim ducks for a team that were absolutely terrible as you've actually looked all right to the first couple of games, took the loss last night, but there's still a few teams up to take the ice today for the first time. It's going to be interesting to see it's our heaviest day of the schedule so far 14 games today. So I'm ready for it.

Mitch WIlson (41m 17s):All right. Well, what do you got in a College Football action for us today? You have a one game, two games. How many games you got

Chris Ruffolo (41m 26s):Two games. Where are you guys today?

Mitch WIlson (41m 28s):All right, well, what do you got?

Chris Ruffolo (41m 31s):My first one. I'm gonna look at this Iowa and Kansas state match up. Now I understand if I was stay was a favorite at home against Kansas state, but this line on the road confuses me a little bit as to why it's still sitting here at touchdown. You know, Brock Purdy decent for the cyclins the season, almost on pace to matches numbers. From last year we threw for almost 2,900 yards, 19 touchdowns nine Picks. This year, it's got 1130, sorry, 1,133 yards, eight touchdowns, five interceptions, but seven of those touchdowns came against UNLB in Kansas were combined, oh, and 10 with 179 points, four and 403 points against this season, the rest, oh, 56 of 86 passing, not bad, but with one touchdown in four Picks and with a touch with one without touchdown, three interceptions coming against Iowa, it was one of the best defensive units in the country and numbers like that.

Chris Ruffolo (42m 19s):I don't think they're gonna fly gets the Kansas state team with a pretty good pass rush that could throw party from his rhythm early on Skylar Thompson threw for 320 yards a couple of weeks ago, but the caveat was that he couldn't run the football. So you give them an extra week to rest up, you know, with bill Snyder, Memorial stadium, one of the more underrated home environments, I think in all of college football, not just the big 10. So the big 12, excuse me. I think, I think Kansas state has a chance to win this one out. Right. But I'm taking the points.

Mitch WIlson (42m 45s):Okay, Joe, what are you thinking?

Jo Madden (42m 53s):Yeah, I like them with the points. I think Kansas state does enough to keep relevant in this game. Scholar Thompson, their quarterback. I actually really believe in him. I think this Iowa team does come out and win it. They're five and two against the spread in the last seven versus Kansas state. I can see them getting the wind, but I don't think they get the cover in this one. So I think Kansas state plus the point is the best bet in this Bet.

Mitch WIlson (43m 20s):Great cover coach to one of the best cover coaches, specially in conference games in all of College Football, I was state comes in. I mean, seriously disappointing. This was a team that was ranked top 10. You know, they, the game again, they were favored against Iowa, you know, in that game. And you know, here they are favored on the road. Again, they were favored in the game against Baylor that they've lost. So, you know, they've, they've disappointed, no doubt, but I'll tell you what Matt Campbell becomes available. I think my canes will be knocking on that door because this guy can flat out coach and win games. Imagine if he does that at Iowa state, imagine what he could do it south Florida, just a little shout out to coach Campbell.

Mitch WIlson (44m 7s):He's interested anyways, Chris, what else do you got for us?

Chris Ruffolo (44m 12s):Oh, my other one, you know, I know that camp Randall, one of the most, one of the toughest home environments in the big 10, but even with Wisconsin against army, I'm not laying two touchdowns in this spot. You know, the badgers, they do have a two and three record with losses to Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn state. And while the black Knights on that tier are the College Football spectrum. Those three losses have something in common, Wisconsin struggling to run the football compared to their two wins. You look at the three losses, 43 rushing yards against Michigan, 74 against Notre Dame and 174 against Penn state in the 16 to 10 loss, but tells me that they were getting the field position, but just couldn't punch it in when they needed to the two winds against Illinois and Eastern Michigan, 391 rushing yards against Illinois, 3 52 against EMU tells me that the key for Wisconsin success and is going to be running the football successfully and against the top rank rush defense in the country.

Chris Ruffolo (45m 2s):That's going to be tough to cover, let alone, you know, Carter two scores, but you know, army an option offense predicated on running the football, obviously against the second ranked brush defense in the country. And it's gonna be tough.

Mitch WIlson (45m 15s):Whoa, did you say predicated Big words here?

Jo Madden (45m 23s):And those are two big awards for a Saturday morning.

Chris Ruffolo (45m 31s):The big calendar yesterday. It was looking okay. I think it's going to be tough to cover two scores yet. We talk about the past army still respectable 60th in the country, and they're not getting beaten that valleys who the air bottom line. I think this is going to be a black and blue game. You guys talked about that old miss Tennessee game. This, that this game starts half an hour later and probably finished half an hour before. I think there's going to be just that much running the football. I wouldn't be surprised if either team, both teams finished under 20 points here. I think it's going to be pretty or flashy, but I'm taking army in the points.

Mitch WIlson (46m 0s):I will cut him some slack. He doesn't have Jake Luton anymore. Joe, when he got,

Jo Madden (46m 5s):Yeah. I'm with you on this one, I think we're seeing a low scoring game and army plus the points would be my best bet in this. This is one that I, you know, sought about putting as a premium play. Cause I really do think army is undervalued in this and I think the spread should be tighter, but it didn't make it. Wisconsin is a good team. And if they find the holes in army and are able to get more time of possession, they could cover this, but I don't see it happening. I think army covers with the points today.

Mitch WIlson (46m 36s):Yeah. I'm going to take a Ruffolo on this one because I just think that, you know, for me, army is just their, their possession team and a keep away team and four down team. Right? It's like they don't punt. They just go for it for three yards, three yards, three yards, three yards is, is there the way that they do it, but it, Wisconsin is just big, right? So they can lean on a team like this and if they can do it back to them and then they do get army into that third down where they gotta punt or even worse a passing situation. Right. It's it's, it's not going to be good. I don't know. Paul, Chris, such a jerk. I could see him leaving, you know, pounding a military school.

Mitch WIlson (47m 16s):You know, it's like these guys that, you know, thank you for your service. Right? It's like, I mean, even, I mean, how about like a few years ago when Navy played at Ohio state, it was like that send out memos before the game, all the season ticket holders and fans, like not to boon Navy when they run out of the tunnel. I mean, come on, you know, and it's, I think it's going to be similar here with Paul, Chris, you know, and you know, I know camp Randall is another great place to, to see a game. And you know, I've talked about the kettle corn before, but I think that, you know, I think that, you know, this one is one I'll probably be staying away from. I just think that I could see Wisconsin leaning on him and going 35, nothing near to, I can see it going either way.

Mitch WIlson (47m 59s):I could see army, you know, cause Paul, Chris is such a bad coach. I could see him coaching his team into like a 17, 10 type thing. But at the same time I could see 35, nothing also, you know, type game. So I was just, I dunno, other places I'd rather be Crestwood he's selling today.

Chris Ruffolo (48m 19s):And today I got my shotgun Saturday seven pack Covey from 12 o'clock slot all until the, the late games tonight. Or if you kind of want to break up your day a little bit, I got five games from the 12 to four o'clock slot and I got to three from seven o'clock onwards, including my bookie, bailout Buster. It's one play that sells for 25 bucks on its own. So definitely check those out over Pick Dawgz premium or this is the time to go on long-term because we always say it's the, when the sports are starting to overlap. So this is going to be some of your best value for those longer term packages, whether it's me or someone else, part of the, a two foreign capper deal

Mitch WIlson (48m 54s):Shares are freed or total

Chris Ruffolo (49m 2s):Free. All right.

Mitch WIlson (49m 4s):Habit Braves for Ruffolo. Anyways, thanks Chris for joining us. And of course we'll see you tomorrow. And of course, every day on the drive-thru plus the slew of hockey videos out there today, I think he did 73 hockey videos today.

Chris Ruffolo (49m 19s):So you might have to carry the one. I'm not sure

Mitch WIlson (49m 24s):I don't watch hockey, but I watch hockey videos anyways. Thanks Chris for joining us and we'll see you tomorrow.

Chris Ruffolo (49m 30s):Thank you,

Jo Madden (49m 32s):Chris.

Mitch WIlson (49m 32s):That was Chris Ruffolo of course I could see him every day, Monday through Friday on the drive-thru and of course, one of and on those hockey videos plus, you know, soccer videos too. We didn't even ask him about the soccer.

Jo Madden (49m 49s):Oh, I didn't know. He did soccer,

Mitch WIlson (49m 51s):Soccer. He does it all. He, he, he does it.

Jo Madden (49m 56s):The healthcare is just one sport. I don't handicap because I can't watch it. I get so bored watching soccer.

Mitch WIlson (50m 6s):That's like hockey for me just to tough, I think. And the thing is I love watching hockey live at the arena, but like on TV and stuff, it's like, I don't know. It's just, I can't follow the puck.

Jo Madden (50m 19s):Well, did you like it when they used to have the puck like glowing?

Mitch WIlson (50m 22s):No. They had a

Jo Madden (50m 24s):Red line following it and stuff. No, that was awful. I hated when they,

Mitch WIlson (50m 30s):It was terrible, but I think that, you know, for me, it's just, I think when you see it live and you have like, you're up a little bit, you see the plays develop and the whole strategy all come together. It's a lot different than seeing it on TV where they're like, you know who in the hell even knows what's going on. It always looks, it always looks like they're magically in position. You know, play just happens. You know, it's kinda, I think, cause that's, that's such a big part of hockey, you know, it was the way the whole place that's up. And you just, you lose that on TV. Yeah, absolutely do. It's weird. I had never seen Live hockey until I went to college and then I went to a hockey school, you know, I was like,

Jo Madden (51m 9s):Oh, that's interesting.

Mitch WIlson (51m 11s):Be you always in the, you know, contending for the national championship, always Bringing rods, wacky, Rodd. How are you today? Helps when you turn your mic on to the island.

Rodd Zawacky (51m 29s):Now I'm doing a bit more

Mitch WIlson (51m 30s):On that morning. We were just talking hockey behind your back. And these surprises for you so far, this hockey season, just a couple of games.

Rodd Zawacky (51m 40s):Well, the only surprise for me is how bad the Rangers have been. I figured that they would come out and start the season a little better than what they have, but it's, it's still early. It's only two games in total, 80 more games to go for a lot of these teams, some of these teams are just playing their first game today. So lots of hockey left to go to the season.

Jo Madden (52m 2s):Well, what are you getting your Rangers fan?

Rodd Zawacky (52m 5s):Eh, sorry.

Mitch WIlson (52m 7s):We've got a banner behind them. So that's usually the deck. It's it's when the bandwagon's role in Rodd is there. Everyone knows it's to back up the bandwagon pile, but Rodd, when he got forced today for a, for a Pick. Yeah.

Rodd Zawacky (52m 21s):Well, first we're going to go with, we're going to start off with the Baylor game, Baylor and BYU for me, this Baylor, team's pretty good on both sides of the ball. The other, probably not a bad, bad in this, in this here, but I think Baylor, I guess the wind by a touchdown and You look Baylor foreign won their last five games, straight up eight and to their last 10 falling a straight up when they got, they lost their first one there. And then they bounced back and got an east beat down last week. And I've got in my hand and the quarterback completing the 66% of his passes. He's got 11 touchdowns, no Picks. I'm throwing for a over 1300 yards. He's got a nice couple of running backs with Smith and Abner.

Rodd Zawacky (53m 3s):I like Baylor he'll today. You're going to BYU. They're one, four, their last five off of a straight up loss. So I think Baylor BYU loses again. Give me Baylor and this one,

Mitch WIlson (53m 16s):Joe, what are you thinking,

Jo Madden (53m 17s):Mitch? This is one we keep talking about all week and I know that you prefer Baylor over BYU, but I'm sticking with BYU in this one. I think both of these defenses are super strong. I see a tighter game in this one and taking BYU plus subpoints, especially with them being on the road, I think is the best way to go in this there for one against the spread in their last five on the road. I don't see this being a blowout by Baylor. And I've been on Baylor a lot this year. I love what I'm seeing out of them, but I think this BYU team keeps it tight.

Mitch WIlson (53m 49s):Builder's not generally a blowout team and that's, and that's the truth, but they've played a much tougher, you know, they've had a much tougher road than BYU and BYU, kind of middle of the pack as far as I'm concerned. You know? So that's why I've been more on Baylor in this matchup. I think BYU, when you look at them, statistically, you know, they're like I said, middle of the pack. I know they beat Arizona state. I think that was their best winner of the season. But last week they got punched in the mouth. I mean, they got the call of all calls to go up 10, nothing on Boise. And they, once they, once that call happened, Boise just, I don't know, something lit a fire under them. And it was game over and BYU had no answers whatsoever.

Mitch WIlson (54m 32s):I mean, nothing. They could not punch back at all. And I think Baylor was going to hit them even harder. So I think they might be in some trouble here, but that's just me Rodd. What else do you got for us?

Rodd Zawacky (54m 44s):Well, another one I've been thinking to you. I'm going to go with Washington state here, stick with the cougars, playing Stanford on both teams, three and three on the season, both teams three and three against the number, but Washington, the states three and O ATS. Our last three and the cartel has just been awful and like Washington, therefore in oh eight. Yes, the last four in October Stanford. Oh, and five last five meetings versus these cougars. So for me, if it's not broke, don't fix it. I'm going to stick with the Washington tubers here. I know it said it was Washington. Mine's one. Now in places I've seen, I seen in a pickup, so it was moved to Washington state. I like Washington state here to get the win in the cougars over Stanford. And this one,

Mitch WIlson (55m 25s):Joe,

Jo Madden (55m 26s):Oh, I want to take Stanford in this, this one. Hasn't made my card, but I look at the Stanford team and I know Washington state is doing well. Stanford though is six and three against the spread in their last nine. They're playing hard and they've had some games in which I didn't think they were gonna win, that they have come out and win. I believe in the more than this Washington state team, Washington state is four and nine against the spread in their last 13. Stanford is seven and three straight up in their last 10. I'm going to jump on Stanford in this one.

Mitch WIlson (55m 59s):I dunno. I have a, I have a policy call me superstitious, but you bet on a game with two teams with the same colored uniforms, you get what you get, you know, you're going to,

Rodd Zawacky (56m 10s):I mean,

Mitch WIlson (56m 10s):I learned my, I learned it from that shirt that Syracuse, Auburn sugar bowl, the 10, 10 tie. It's like, I think, I think that, you know, this is just one of those games. I could make an argument either way. And this one, I like Washington state. I liked the way that they played last week, Stanford, I think has been more hot and cold. We saw them, you know, beat Oregon. And then we saw them get slaughtered by, you know, by UCLA, we saw them get beat by, we saw him get beat by a Kansas state in the opener. They just got absolutely clobbered. You know? So it's like, who knows what's going to happen. Of course, Nick role of which also one of the worst cover coaches in all of college football for Washington state. So a guy that I like to steer clear of, you know?

Mitch WIlson (56m 52s):So once again, like I said, two teams, same color uniform. I'll just use that as my out. Hey, you don't, you don't see me. You don't see me here talking about the TCU Kansas state game either. Right? It's like, you know, when they're playing the odds and purp ones over in the same conferences, it just doesn't happen.

Jo Madden (57m 24s):I love it. I learned something new about you every day,

Mitch WIlson (57m 28s):Right? What are you selling today at Pick Dawgz

Rodd Zawacky (57m 33s):For me over at Pick Dawgz today? I've got a nice five-pack when a super Saturday, if I pack all day, Saturday, it got you covered in College Football. You get all five of my best bets over there, or you get my a 10 star NHL slapshot play and we're three. And on that one going to keep it rolling. You can get it singled over there by itself for 15 bucks, guaranteed winner, jump on over to Pick Dawgz premium and scoop it out. We're gonna have a big day off a nice three in one day yesterday. I'm excited. And Chris talking about that Pick Dawgz package has been rolling. We're we said we did, we did take our lumps in the beginning, but we weren't our last three. It would have been rolling right along, jump on over and grab that too. Well, I'll make you some money.

Rodd Zawacky (58m 14s):Long-term jump aboard. Hockey's not a bad bet.

Mitch WIlson (58m 19s):Abso freaking lutely better than the lucky penny. Anyways. Thanks for it. And we'll see it of course, for a premium show later on today. And of course we'll also see you tomorrow and every day here on our live show.

Rodd Zawacky (58m 33s):Like you have a good wonderful day and let's get some winners.

Mitch WIlson (58m 37s):Well, Joe, just Joe, just a couple of guests left to go for today. We've got Al McMordie up next. And then of course, Brian, to bring us home with the, I don't know, should we should come up with like a nickname for Brian? Like all smiles, Brian. Like we, we ran a nickname contest for Brian and it was always like Brian Sharp and Brian would everybody, I think it's all smiles. You know, this is just, yeah, something like that. What do you think?

Jo Madden (59m 7s):Well, you guys leave in the comments. What should Bryan's nickname be?

Mitch WIlson (59m 11s):I don't know if we want to do that. It all depends if he's winning or losing, right. I mean, it's like, that's, it's almost unfair, but let's bring it. Al's been red hot lately. He had a little cold streak, but it, man, he just bounced right off the floor and he has been on the heater ever since. I don't want to drink some too much, but

Al McMordie (59m 34s):I think he just changed. I

Mitch WIlson (59m 36s):Don't think so. I don't think so. I was

Al McMordie (59m 39s):Saying tomorrow

Mitch WIlson (59m 40s):Morning, I've been saying, I've been saying, you know, all along today and you know, you ever get stuck on a team like for years, you know, it's like they either digit dirty or they've done your well in the past. So you just get stuck on them. Are you, or are you able to just wipe the slate clean? Like

Al McMordie (59m 55s):I've me, I've never gotten stuck on a team. I never think, oh gosh, that team's screwed me three weeks ago. I can't take them. That's my mindset. Thank God. I mean, you know, cause I know a lot of guys who are like that, you know, they get burned by team. They're like, oh, they're off my list or whatever. But yeah, no. I mean, there's a lot of guys and thank God I've not fallen into that. You know, maybe my clients sometimes wish I would've fallen into that. But you know, when you keep going back to the well and taking that dog shit team, but not that that's just not the way I operate.

Mitch WIlson (1h 0m 29s):No, I, it, it happens and it doesn't happen to me all the time, but I have a few words like, like this ECU quarterback right now, I just, I can't stand them. You know,

Al McMordie (1h 0m 39s):I know that I've got, I've got a good friend who refuses to play on urban Meyer.

Mitch WIlson (1h 0m 43s):Yeah. It's just, you know, you get into these things, you know, I've Sarkeesian is another one of my guys, but Joe, what were you going to say? Cut you off there.

Jo Madden (1h 0m 53s):I was going to say that's Kansas for me. And it's also Jared golf. So those two gripped tonight. Yeah.

Mitch WIlson (1h 1m 2s):Jared Goff is you do have that thing that you, that, that anti-Catholic.

Jo Madden (1h 1m 6s):Yeah, I did it once a season, even though last season, I said, I swore I would never bet with a Jared golf again, made my mistake.

Mitch WIlson (1h 1m 15s):Well, what do you got for us today?

Al McMordie (1h 1m 18s):Well, let's talk about the chores or post bikes then, you know, they're, they're they're, once again are favored by a large number against a very good team. Both Kentucky and Georgia are undefeated this year at six to no coincidentally, they're also both five and one against the spread. That's really where the similarities and Georgia has the number one defense, historically a great defense, you know, in the country, this season giving up just 5.5 points per game, but not only number one this year in defensive scoring, they're also number one in point spread differential there covering the spread by an average of 14.6, six points per game. The only team above 14 and all of College Football and that's 8.0 well, Kentucky is 8.1.

Al McMordie (1h 2m 2s):So that's a 6.5, six less than what George is doing, you know, against the spread. So George is just a much superior team than Kentucky. The relative scoring margin between these two teams is also pretty high, 20.83. So that explains why this number is sitting at 21 and a half points. A lot of people at the number and you know, their eyes bug out. They think, oh, you're not Kentucky undefeated and all, but when you look at the relative scoring margin, you look at the points where a differential, it makes a lot of sense. Even when Georgia, you know, might be playing with their second string quarterback. Once again, I'm going to take Georgia minus the points in this argument, going against the undefeated Wildcats. When you take a look at how double digit road underdogs do when they're, they've got a really good wind percentage when the wind percentage is 8 57 or better, and that's at game five fourth, those teams are, have covered just 37% over the last 42 years when they're playing on opponent off a straight up when George is also pretty strong in the category of playing winning sec opponents.

Al McMordie (1h 3m 0s):When George is favorite in the bowl game, they're 29 and 15 ATS, including six and one ATS. If their opponent is undefeated in sec conference play, I'm laying in the 21 and a half with Georgia,

Mitch WIlson (1h 3m 12s):Joe.

Jo Madden (1h 3m 13s):Yeah, I absolutely love it. I think Georgia is going to have a fantastic day and I'm, I'm loving this under again to you guys. We're going to have such a battle in the trenches with this one. And I think Georgia comes out on top. They are the way better team. Their defense is holding teams to 5.5 points per game on average. And I think Kentucky is really gonna struggle to score.

Mitch WIlson (1h 3m 34s):I haven't loved the Georgia quarterback situation and I do like the running backs, but I think the offense is average. I think the defense is one of the best I've ever seen. Probably the best defense since 94, Miami really it's it's it is that good. And maybe, or 2001 Miami, either of those two, it's a it's as good as those and Kirby smart. The thing is that he loses a ton of players to the transfer portal every single year two, which is pretty amazing. And that just shows you how many top recruits this guy gets. I think this one's going to come down to field position though. It's a ton of points and it's a lot of, you know, it's a lot of things I th you know, Kentucky's got the two running backs, Chris Rodriguez Tavasia smoke that, you know, they've done a nice job, but they haven't played this defense, you know, either.

Mitch WIlson (1h 4m 27s):So I dunno, it's it's for me. I, I understand George's boot crushing the spread, but I dunno, I think it's going to come down to field position and it's well know early if they do what they did dark and saw and just, you know, come out and, you know, Boston it'll be over in a hurry cause Kentucky will have no answers, but they have a big physical quarterback. They've got, you know, two good running backs. I don't know to me, it's, it's, it's, it's a pass, but I, I see it. What else, what else do you have for us? So,

Al McMordie (1h 5m 4s):Oh, let's go over to the Mid-American conference, a blessed week, Western Michigan. This, this game to me was a head-scratcher came out of nowhere. You know, they were favored by 13 and a half points against ball state at they're upset 45 to 20. So they failed to cover the point spread by 38 and a half points. And not surprisingly, the reason was turnovers. They had four turnovers and they forced none in return, but they had been playing really well before that game, which is really why it was just a huge head scratch at Fordham. I think they might've been on a three oh and one ATS run going into that all game. I think this is a really good spot for them to bounce back. You know, back to back home games are going to be back in front of their home, faithful here, you know, against Kent state.

Al McMordie (1h 5m 46s):And when you look at how teams do when they fail by 31 or more points of the spread in the previous game, if they're in a tight point spread range of the favorite by 10 points, or let us those teams, if they've also got a 400 or better wind percentage, they do really well against the spread. And that's the situation here. These two teams also coincidentally, played the Buffalo bulls and back to back weeks on October 2nd and October 9th. And when you take a look at how those two teams did against that, very simple, you know, the same opponent on back to back weights, Western Michigan did better than Kent state, even though wrestle. Michigan had to play that game on the road. Can state had that a game at home, but yet Western, Michigan out yarded Buffalo by 1 75.

Al McMordie (1h 6m 28s):And I think Ken state was 84. So for something like that, but so as a, you know, much better performance, even though they have a disadvantage with the schedule there. So I like Western Michigan here, minus seven points. It's even come down a little bit to six and a half, and I'm going to lay the points with the Broncos.

Mitch WIlson (1h 6m 46s):I was looking at this one as a premium pick earlier, didn't it just D just miss my list, Joe.

Jo Madden (1h 6m 52s):Yeah, I think I'm home. Home field advantage is going to be huge for Western Michigan and this, we see them, they do play well at home. They're two and one in their last three games at home. They also have a really solid defense. And I think that's going to be the key stopping this Kent state team in this matchup. So I liked them to cover those points.

Al McMordie (1h 7m 17s):Oh, Joe, have you seen the defensive splits at home this year? No, there it's crazy. Western Michigan at home this year, a 1.8 yards per rush against their opponents. And then you take a look at what Kent's, you know, defensive yards per rush is on the road at 6.0. And admittedly, you know, quality of competition has a lot to do with that, but still it's, it's a pretty stark difference when you look at the home road, Russian splits this year on defense.

Jo Madden (1h 7m 45s):Absolutely.

Mitch WIlson (1h 7m 47s):Yeah. I looked at this one too, and it's the same thing, like you said, that Western Mitch way better at home. And I think that some of their overall statistics are a little skewed also because they did schedule up like a lot of the Mac teams did. So I think they're better team than what the numbers show. And I think that, you know, they haven't played, I think over the course of a 12 game season, those numbers smoothed out, but over, you know, five or six games, you know, they're still showing that Michigan Cayman, you know, which maybe they were in. I don't think I really, you know, going back to that game, I don't think that they were in over their head. I think that they maybe played like they were in over their head. I think they didn't. I think in order to take down a big team like that, you got to take your shots and I don't think they did, but just,

Al McMordie (1h 8m 34s):Well, if they've had a nice season, not withstanding that game last week, so hopefully that bounce back today. So over at Pick Dawgz premium, we'll, we've got eight places in College Football. I've also got one play in baseball at the moment. I'll probably add a second baseball play after we hang up here. And then I've got 300 old games for Sunday, a lot of big plays this week. I've got my NFL game of the month. We hit our NFL game of the month in September on the Ravens against the chiefs. I've also got my second College Football conference game of the year. Going today. We hit our first one with our sec conference game of the year end, Georgia against Kentucky. We're 31 and 12 or last 43 College Football conference games of the year.

Al McMordie (1h 9m 15s):So don't miss that one. And we've been on a nice roll. As Mitch mentioned earlier, 43 and 16, our last 59 had another sweep of the board yesterday with San Jose state and the Houston Astros. So the best deal of all, of course, it's a joint for a week or a month. And also the team yet with one of the other champion handicappers here at Pick Dawgz under the two for one handicap special.

Mitch WIlson (1h 9m 35s):Any comment on what the, what you think the official sports book of the NFL's position was on Monday nights game on the total or the side?

Al McMordie (1h 9m 48s):I, I can't even, I all I'm thinking about is Saturday to remind me what happened on Monday night.

Mitch WIlson (1h 9m 54s):Well, there was a team is down by eight and they go for, they go for two and in a spread the game, the spread happens to be six a

Al McMordie (1h 10m 4s):No, no, this is a true story. So I was watching the game on my computer. I wasn't watching on TV because I was working. I'm watching on my computer and obviously game theory says, you know, you go for when you're down 14, and there's a short amount of time left in the game. You go for two on the first touchdown because you have two bites at the apple. And if you get it on the first bite, then you win the game with the metric points. A game theory says, you do go for two. So I'm watching on my computer and I've got Philadelphia plus six and a half. And I'm thinking to myself like, oh my God, I hope this fricking coach understands game theory and goes for two here. And I had no idea what was going to happen. I'm just watching it like, is it going to say extra point? Is it going to say two point conversion? Is it going to, and then the pops up two point conversion converted.

Al McMordie (1h 10m 45s):I'm like, oh good. The coach understood game theory. That was,

Mitch WIlson (1h 10m 48s):It's not a, it's not like with the all time great coaches have done, you know, it's like down by, cause they weren't down by 14. They were down by eight with an extra point pending. They weren't down by 14. They're down by eight at that point.

Al McMordie (1h 11m 5s):No, that's not the point. You're, you're it. The move is when you're down by 14 and you score a touchdown. You always go for two to cut you because if you fail, you're down by eight and then you have, and then if you're going to need the second touchdown anyway, because there's, you're only gonna have one more possession. So it's in a game where you have only a few possessions left, you do it because you know, there's only two opportunities to do it. And if you fail to get the two pointer on the first one, you get it on the second one and you have, and you have a much better chance to win the game that way, because you can avoid overtime with the extra point. If you succeed on the two pointer on your first one, it's a much it improves. I think it improves your chances of winning a 13% from FitLife. It's a huge play to, you know, kick to go for two on that, on that first initial touchdown when you're down by 14,

Mitch WIlson (1h 11m 55s):Especially at home, it's

Al McMordie (1h 11m 56s):Not, it's not, it's not, it's not even, it's not an enclosed. That's one of the biggest things. And everyone understands that. Now, in fact, I think I was talking about this with Larry ness. I think as far back here, he told me this was happening as far back as maybe year 2000 and College Football. He said, I'm a coach did that. And he told me that because obviously how this has happened with the last month, there's the zone. Now, even though

Mitch WIlson (1h 12m 19s):They used to not have overtime and College Football. So that's a different thing. College Football overtime only started. We w we went over this, like the NFL only started the two point conversion in 1994. I think it was, we found, we looked at it and then the College Football overtime only started not as, not that long ago, either College Football timed started. Let me see College Football overtime,

Al McMordie (1h 12m 46s):Coach. I'm sorry, 1996.

Mitch WIlson (1h 12m 49s):Yeah. So it hasn't been around that way. Either

Al McMordie (1h 12m 52s):Started, I think 1995 in the bowl game,

Mitch WIlson (1h 12m 55s):I was at the 84 orange bowl when Nebraska went for two, instead of going for the tie. And also I mentioned that, you know, two teams, same color playing each other, Syracuse, Auburn. They tied in the sugar that one year in of course.

Al McMordie (1h 13m 11s):Yeah. So if you, if you've got it, if you've got a 50% chance of making the two, then you can do the math. You did realize that how much of an advantage it gives you by doing it. Because at the end of the day, you know, you're going to have a 75% chance of having two successful. I'm sorry, you got to have a 75% chance of not being in a worse position. If you have a 50% chance of making the two

Mitch WIlson (1h 13m 38s):At home. How about, how about the Cardinals against the 49ers fourth and two from the 50 yard line, seven and a half minutes, seven and a half, seven and a half minutes left to go in the game down by three and you go for it.

Al McMordie (1h 13m 57s):Okay. So it's,

Mitch WIlson (1h 13m 60s):You're on the 48 yard line, your own 48. You're down by three fourth and two. You have a rookie first-time starter quarterback, you punting. Are you going?

Al McMordie (1h 14m 11s):I watched some of that ball game. I didn't see that play. I, I,

Mitch WIlson (1h 14m 18s):Well, they went, they went for it. The Cardinals got the ball at the 50 yard line, throw a touchdown like two plays later to Deondra Hopkins.

Al McMordie (1h 14m 28s):Yeah. It's I mean, I had, I had the loser in that game. I, I, you know, I wished they probably would have not gone for us. I never saw the play, but,

Mitch WIlson (1h 14m 39s):And this thing that you see more going for it now than you ever have. And it's because it's because the rules are so skewed to the off fence, you know, that the, they, the coaches feel that stopping them or getting it to run out. It's just so difficult. I understand.

Al McMordie (1h 14m 53s):I also, I also think, you know, you're rewarded in a lot of ways by being aggressive too. I mean, it's not just the rule. Well, the rules play into it. Do you have a much better chance of,

Mitch WIlson (1h 15m 2s):Well, we can pick this up again. We can pick this up again tomorrow. We appreciate, we appreciate you coming by of course, big Al absolute heater. Well, Al oh, I see some good insight there. You know, we don't always have to agree on everything. I'm kicking that extra point. I really don't care. I had the Eagles in that game too. So I appreciate it. I appreciate the effort that he, that even if they didn't make it, that at least they went for the wind for us, you know, but yeah, for sure does. Didn't make a lot of sense. So we're going to bring in, Brian are always our cleanup hitter here on the show.

Mitch WIlson (1h 15m 48s):And she's going to gloat about that cow cover last night against Oregon. No, it did not. It did not. They did not get the win outright, but they did cover, they scored on their first drive and I said they wouldn't score all game. So

Brian Bitler (1h 16m 5s):I was going to say that big Al said exactly what I said on Monday, that it comes down to, you know, mathematics and it was the statistical right move. Yeah. It's always hard to follow a legend, big out one of my favorite guys in the business, but he was right on it and exactly what I said on Monday. I, it mathematically makes sense to go for two 14 point game in the fourth quarter. But anyway, that was one Monday and we're on Saturday.

Mitch WIlson (1h 16m 29s):Just show me, show me your work on that math problem. Anyways,

Brian Bitler (1h 16m 35s):Two point conversions are 49.4% successful. So two opportunities would give you a really anyway, we're not going to get into that.

Mitch WIlson (1h 16m 43s):Oh, what'd he got for us today? Brian, as far as the free pick,

Brian Bitler (1h 16m 46s):Maybe you'll like my free pick today and easily. It could have been a premium pick today. I'm going to take the Minnesota golden gophers at home here. Plus the points I wrote in Nebraska last week and just barely got a cover. As we seen implosions as a regular theme here with Scott Frost and the Nebraska Cornhuskers over the last few years, Minnesota at three and two has not had the greatest of seasons, but we saw Nebraska go to Illinois, start the season as a pretty big favorite and crap. The bed Minnesota has not covered a game at home this season. I really feel it's easily could have been one of my top of the day. Golden gophers 4 0 1. It gets a spread last five conference games. Minnesota is also 31, 15 and five last 51 games as a dog.

Brian Bitler (1h 17m 27s):I think Minnesota has a chance to win this game out. Right. But I like to play it safe. I'm going to take the points here in the golden gophers.

Mitch WIlson (1h 17m 33s):Well, we know you like to play it safe. Doesn't do Joe, what are you thinking? She's frozen, but no, Joe, what do you think of Nebraska against Minnesota?

Jo Madden (1h 17m 48s):You know what I think Nebraska's quarterback has to Tufts for 'em this Minnesota team I've going to have to go with Nebraska and this one. And I think it's going to be an under game. What we're seeing out of Nebraska, the totals finished under in nine of their last 11 played on the road. I think their defense is solid. Their offense is solid, a solid offensive line. I think this team's too much for Minnesota who has won five and one against the spread in their last seven at home. I don't see them getting it done today.

Mitch WIlson (1h 18m 18s):PJ Fleck, not one of my favorite coaches. That's for sure. But at the same time I saw, I liked the way last time out two weeks ago against Purdue in the rain throwing deep in the second half, when they had chances to win the game and they won the game, they won outright as a dog in that game, it was the best. They looked all season long. I think their whole off season, game plan revolved around Ebraheem who got knocked out in that Ohio state game. You know, it was gone for the season. And I think, you know, you have to regroup. And I think Minnesota is now finally regrouped. The brassica has been kind of close, but no cigar, you know, it's the way that they've been all season long. And I think that in this case, I think it's kind of the same thing. I don't know who wins the game, but four and a half hours just seems to be too easy.

Brian Bitler (1h 19m 1s):I think it's a field goal win for Nebraska

Mitch WIlson (1h 19m 4s):Either they make the field goal or they missed a field goal. I think it

Brian Bitler (1h 19m 7s):Was like four and a half points.

Mitch WIlson (1h 19m 10s):Yeah. I could see it too. I just took me in Nebraska, just close. I think they've made a big improvement enough to save Scott Frost job at this point, but There's a 500 team, you know? I mean they, if they, if they beat Michigan last week, who knows, you know?

Jo Madden (1h 19m 32s):Yeah. And I think, I think this is too low because everyone's seeing that they didn't beat Michigan. And I think it would have been higher if they came in beating Michigan. And I think they get this win off the loss

Mitch WIlson (1h 19m 43s):And saw that they kind of hung in there with Michigan and they had Michigan. They had their chance and all that other stuff. I think everybody saw that. And even, you know, in that Michigan game, there was that miserable call before the half the pass interference that gave Michigan the touchdown, as opposed to getting the field goal. That was a four point differential and a three point game. And that it was the difference maker in that game. Was you, they got three there instead of four. Well, Nebraska wins the game.

Jo Madden (1h 20m 13s):Absolutely.

Mitch WIlson (1h 20m 13s):So Brian, what else you got any other Picks? Are you just selling something?

Brian Bitler (1h 20m 18s):That's it for me today. I'm just a hock in my wares. Now

Mitch WIlson (1h 20m 22s):Tell us what you got.

Brian Bitler (1h 20m 23s):I'll tell you what I'm going to try to follow up that three and O night. And this is the time of year. I usually make hay in College Football. I got my blank check College Football play my Saturday golden ticket. And my sec game of the month get five plays for $50 at Pick Dawgz dot com premium picks. But if you want one play, pick up my blank check should write any amount in there should be an easy winner. Tonight, 30 bucks at Pick Dawgz dot com. We're joined that VIP joined the VIP show. I'm going to definitely give out one of the plays on the VIP

Mitch WIlson (1h 20m 52s):I will as well. So I will see you on the VIP show. Brian, thanks for joining us as always. We'll see you tomorrow and every day here at Pick Dawgz. Well, Joe, that's all our guests for today. You have anything you want to say to our audience and he picks anything.

Jo Madden (1h 21m 7s):Yeah. I want to wish everyone best of luck first. But I also like this Texas a and M and Missouri game. And I know we've talked about this one oh Week Mitch first. I thought it could be elect downspout for Texas a and M, but I don't see it being in this one. I think they're going to ride momentum and come out and get this win and cover the spread. I'm also liking the over, I think this is too low in this one. When we look at Texas a and M they're six and three against the spread in their last nine. And I think they have a dominating game over Missouri whose oh, and nine against the spread in there last night. They're not doing well. And I'm also in Missouri games. This over has been cashing in the last, I believe it's their last five games.

Jo Madden (1h 21m 51s):We have hit that over. So give me a Texas, a and M minus the points. And the over in this matchup,

Mitch WIlson (1h 21m 57s):I was going to give Western Michigan. The other one that I like is pit that he didn't give out as a premium pig, but the line is really starting to move away from me. It's getting up towards a touchdown where I'm a little less comfortable, but I still like Pitt in that game. So it was a bonus, but instead I'll give out, Wyoming was my other choice here. And I'm another one that just missed as a premium play for me. I think the Cowboys probably win this thing outright at home, public, all over Fresno state, who we've seen on TV, a million times, Wyoming, a team that nobody ever sees and, you know, basically always a good edge, you know, just in that respect alone. And certainly probably the better team here.

Mitch WIlson (1h 22m 38s):So I'm going to take Wyoming against Fresno state and those Fresno state fans have not been very nice to me over the years. So even more reason to take Wyoming anyways, thanks everyone for joining us. We appreciate each and every one of you mates make it a winning day. I'm going to try and act more professional tomorrow for NFL pro football. Of course, be sure to check out our premium and VIP shows as well as our premium and premium Picks over at Pick Dawgz dot com to make it an winning day. And like I said, we appreciate you. Every one of you we'll see you tomorrow. Same time.