| MATCHUP | Minnesota Wild | Tampa Bay Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 2-0-1 | 2-1-0 |
| Spread | +1.5 -205 | -1.5 170 |
| Moneyline | +130 | -155 |
| Total | Over 5.5 (-130) | Under 5.5 (110) |
| Where | Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL | |
| When | Thursday, October 8, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
In this article we will formulate a Wild vs Lightning prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, October 8th at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.
Minnesota Wild Betting Preview
The Minnesota Wild are 2-0-1 this year after they lost to the Sabres in overtime by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Minnesota led 2-0 after the second period, but they blew the lead in the third and lost with 38 seconds left in OT. The Wild were out shot by a total of 28-20, won 44.4% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Minnesota was led by Danila Yurov, who had one goal, while Jesper Wallstedt stopped 25 out of 28 shots, which was an .893 save percentage in the game.
Prior to that loss, Minnesota defeated the Bruins by a score of 4-1 and the Predators by a score of 3-1. The Wild have scored 3.00 goals per game and they have allowed 1.67 goals against per game, while also going 36.4% on the power play and 100.0% on the penalty kill this season. Quinn Hughes has led the team with one goal and three assists, while Jesper Wallstedt is 2-0-1 with a 1.63 goals against average and a .933 save percentage this year.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 2-1-0 this season after they defeated the Flyers by a score of 4-1 in their last game. Tampa Bay had their lead cut to 2-1 in the second period, but they scored twice in the third to seal the win. The Lightning out shot Philadelphia by a total of 36-14, won 46.0% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay was led by Pontus Holmberg, who had one goal and one assist, while Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 13 out of 14 shots, which was a .929 save percentage in the win.
Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Capitals by a score of 3-1, but lost to the Rangers by a score of 5-1 before that. The Lightning have scored 2.67 goals per game and they have allowed 2.33 goals against per game, while also going 0.0% on the power play and 85.7% on the penalty kill this season. Nikita Kucherov has led the Lightning with one goal and three assists, while Andrei Vasilevskiy is 2-1-0 with a 2.05 goals against average and an .898 save percentage this season.
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win
- The Lightning have won eight of their last nine home games against Central Division opponents.
- The Wild have lost four of their last five games at Benchmark International Arena.
- The Wild have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The home team has covered the puck line in four of the Lightning’s last five games.
- The Wild have lost the second period in five of their last six games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the first period.
Why the Minnesota Wild will win
- The Wild have won three of their last four games as an underdog when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as home favorites following a win.
- The Wild have covered the puck line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs after coming off overtime.
- The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in 13 of their last 15 games as favorites.
- The Lightning have lost the third period in each of their last three games as favorites against Central Division opponents when trailing after the second period.
Total Goals Facts
- Nine of the Lightning’s last 10 games following a win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
- Seven of the Wild’s last eight road games against opponents on a winning streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Wild’s last 14 games against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last nine home games against the Wild.
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts
- Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 10 of his last 11 appearances against Central Division opponents at Benchmark International Arena.
- Jake Guentzel has recorded a career faceoff win percentage of 75.0% against the Wild (min. 5 faceoffs) – most against any opponent (including playoffs).
Minnesota Wild Player Prop Facts
- Joel Eriksson Ek has scored a goal in five of the Wild’s last six games at Benchmark International Arena.
- Quinn Hughes has recorded at least one assist in 13 of his last 14 appearances with the Wild as underdogs.
- Blake Coleman has recorded a career faceoff win percentage of 56.0% against the Lightning (min. 5 faceoffs) – most against any opponent (including playoffs).
Matchup/League Facts
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T1st in the league for power play goals against this season (1).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank T1st in the league in short handed goals allowed this season (0).
- The Minnesota Wild rank 8th in the league in power play percentage this season (36.36%).
- The Minnesota Wild rank T1st in the league for power play goals against this season (0).
Wild vs Lightning Prediction
Tampa Bay comes into this matchup on a two game winning streak and they have allowed one goal in each of those wins. The Lightning are 2-0-0 at home this year, while the Wild are 1-0-1 on the road. Minnesota lost their last game in overtime, but they have allowed two regulation goals or fewer in all three of their games. This is a pretty good matchup, but I like the Wild with the plus money here.