Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals Prediction 11/28/2025 Today’s NHL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Nov 26, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) shoots the puck against the Winnipeg Jets during the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Toronto Maple Leafs
Washington Capitals
Team Records
10-10-3
13-9-2
Spread
+1.5 -192
-1.5 160
Moneyline
+130
-155
Total
Over 6.5 (100)
Under 6.5 (-120)
Where
Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
When
Friday, November 28, 2025
Time
05:00 PM EST
TV
ESPN+
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Washington Capitals meet Friday in NHL action from the Capital One Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs Recap
The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game looking to add on to their 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets last time out to sit at 10-10-3 this season. After this game, Toronto will head on the road for a game against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Maple Leafs Lose 7 Of Last 9 Despite Win
William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with 31 points on 11 goals and a team-high 20 assists while John Tavares has 28 points with 12 goals and 16 assists and Matthew Knies has 23 points with 5 goals and 18 assists. Auston Matthews has 14 points with a team-high 9 goals and 5 assists and Morgan Rielly has 17 points with 14 assists. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has 17 points with 14 assists. Anthony Stolarz has gone 6-5-1 with a 3.51 GAA and an .884 save percentage in goal for the Maple Leafs while Joseph Woll is 2-2-1 with a 2.74 GAA and a .921 save percentage.
Washington Capitals Recap
The Washington Capitals come into this game looking to add on to their 4-3 win over the Winnipeg Jets last time out to sit at 13-9-2 this season. After this game, the Capitals will begin a road trip with a game against the New York Islanders.
Capitals Win 5 Of Last 6
Tom Wilson leads Washington with 24 points including a team-high 12 goals and 12 assists while Dylan Strome has 20 points with 5 goals and 15 assists. John Carlson also has 22 points with 6 goals and a team-high 16 assists. Aliaksei Protas has 14 points with 6 goals and 8 assists while Jakob Chychrun has 22 points with 9 goals and 13 assists and Alex Ovechkin has 22 points with 11 goals and 11 assists. In goal for Washington, Logan Thompson has gone 9-6-1 with a 2.16 GAA and a .912 save percentage while Charlie Lindgren is 4-3-1 with a 3.12 GAA and an .886 save percentage so far this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Washington Capitals Betting Trends: November 28, 2025
Why the Washington Capitals will win
The Maple Leafs have lost eight of their last nine games after coming off overtime.
The Capitals have won five of their last six games.
The home team has covered the puck line in seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games.
The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in seven of their last eight games after coming off overtime.
The Capitals have won the third period in each of their last five games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents when tied after the second period.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win
The Capitals have lost five of their last six games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Maple Leafs have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Capitals.
The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in 25 of their last 26 games as underdogs following an overtime win.
The Capitals have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Maple Leafs have won the second period in each of their last four games against the Capitals when leading after the first period.
Total Goals Facts
Each of the Maple Leafs’ last eight games against opponents on a winning streak have gone OVER the total goals line.
Each of the Capitals’ last seven games following a win have gone OVER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Capitals’ last 11 games following a win.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last seven games against opponents on a winning streak.
Washington Capitals Player Prop Facts
Jakob Chychrun has scored at least one goal in each of the Capitals’ last four games.
John Carlson has recorded at least one assist in six of the Capitals’ last seven home games against the Maple Leafs.
Jakob Chychrun has recorded at least one point in each of the Capitals’ last nine games.
Jakob Chychrun has scored a goal in each of his last four appearances – longest active streak in the league.
Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts
Bobby McMann has scored a goal in each of his four previous appearances against the Capitals.
Matthew Knies has recorded at least one assist in each of his last five appearances against Metropolitan Division opponents.
William Nylander has recorded at least one point in 18 of his last 19 appearances in night games.
Scott Laughton has scored 15 career goals against the Capitals – most against any opponent (including playoffs).
Matchup/League Facts
The Washington Capitals rank 29th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (72.00%).
The Washington Capitals are one of four teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 29th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.61).
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 28th in the league in power play percentage this season (15.00%).
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals Prediction
I’m on Washington in this game. I just need to see more from the Leafs on the road than one OT win over Columbus before I start investing faith and trust in this Toronto team going forward. The Capitals are flat out rolling right now, and aren’t a team I want to step in front of, especially when Toronto is the alternative. Give me the Capitals in this one.
