Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction 1/3/2026 Today’s NHL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Dec 8, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) carries th epuck against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Islanders
Team Records
19-15-7
23-15-4
Where
UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
When
Saturday, January 3, 2026
Time
07:00 PM EST
TV
NHL Net
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders meet Saturday in NHL action from the UBS Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Maple Leafs vs. New York Islanders prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs Recap
The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game looking to add on to their 6-5 win over Winnipeg last time out to sit at 19-15-6 this season. After this game, Toronto will take on the Florida Panthers at home.
Maple Leafs Win 4 Of Last 5
William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs with 41 points on 14 goals and a team-high 27 assists while John Tavares has 37 points with a team-high 15 goals and 22 assists and Matthew Knies has 36 points with 11 goals and 25 assists. Auston Matthews has 31 points with 18 goals and 13 assists and Morgan Rielly has 26 points with 21 assists. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has 25 points with 18 assists. Anthony Stolarz has gone 6-5-1 with a 3.51 GAA and an .884 save percentage in goal for the Maple Leafs while Joseph Woll is 7-4-1 with a 2.74 GAA and a .916 save percentage. Dennis Hildeby is also 3-5-4 with a 2.90 GAA and a .914 save percentage this season.
New York Islanders Recap
The New York Islanders come into this game looking to bounce back from their 7-2 loss at the hands of the Utah Mammoth last time out to sit at 22-15-4 this season. After this game, New York will head home for a game against the New Jersey Devils.
Islanders Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight
Bo Horvat has a team-high 33 points with a team-high 21 goals and 12 assists while Mathew Barzal has 30 points with 10 goals and 20 assists. Matthew Schaefer has 26 points with 10 goals and 16 assists and Anders Lee has 25 points with 10 goals and 15 assists. Emil Heineman has 18 points with 12 goals and 6 assists. J-G Pageau has 15 points with 6 goals and 9 assists and Jonathan Drouin has 17 points with 14 assists. Ilya Sorokin is 12-10-2 with a 2.55 GAA and a .910 save percentage while David Rittich is 10-5-2 with a 2.46 GAA and a .909 save percentage in goal for the Islanders so far this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders Betting Trends: January 3, 2026
Why the New York Islanders will win
The home team has won each of the Maple Leafs’ last nine games.
The Maple Leafs have lost each of their last five road games following a home win.
The Islanders have covered the puck line in each of their last four home games against the Maple Leafs.
The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in three of their last four road games.
The Islanders have won the third period in each of their last six Saturday night games.
Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will win
The Maple Leafs have won four of their last five games.
The Islanders have lost each of their last three night games against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Maple Leafs have covered the puck line in each of their last four games against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Islanders have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last three games.
The Maple Leafs have won the third period in seven of their last eight road games against Eastern Conference opponents when leading after the second period.
Total Goals Facts
Each of the Islanders’ last eight games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
Seven of the Maple Leafs’ last eight night games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
Seven of the last eight Saturday night games between teams from different divisions have gone OVER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 10 games.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Islanders’ last five home games against opponents on a winning streak.
New York Islanders Player Prop Facts
Simon Holmstrom has scored a goal in four of the Islanders’ last five night games at UBS Arena.
Mathew Barzal has recorded at least one assist in each of the Islanders’ last three home games against the Maple Leafs.
Matthew Schaefer ranks 1st amongst rookies for average time on ice (23:53) this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts
Bobby McMann has scored at least one goal in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games against Metropolitan Division opponents.
John Tavares has recorded at least one assist in four of the Maple Leafs’ last five games.
Auston Matthews has recorded at least four shots in each of his last three appearances – equal-longest active streak in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The New York Islanders rank 27th in the league in power play percentage this season (16.03%).
The New York Islanders rank 26th in the league for goals per game this season (2.73).
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank T4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.35).
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 5th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (83.50%).
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. New York Islanders Prediction
I’m on the Maple Leafs here. I just think that Toronto is the better team here playing better hockey and I trust their offense more, I also think the Islanders are struggling with David Rittich back to playing #1 minutes and I think Toronto picks up another big win to start the climb back. Give me Toronto.
