Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction 4/24/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

Randy Chambers

3 hours ago

Apr 21, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Nick Paul (20) is tipped up in front of the goal by Montreal Canadiens right wing Ivan Demidov (93) in the third period during game two of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Tampa Bay Lightning	Montreal Canadiens
Team Records	50-26-6	48-24-10
Spread	-1.5 200	+1.5 -245
Moneyline	-122	+102
Total	Over 5.5 (-130)	Under 5.5 (110)
Where	Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
When	Friday, April 24, 2026
Time	07:00 PM EDT
TV	TNT

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens meet Friday in NHL Game 3 at the Bell Centre. Here’s a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Prediction. This article will include a Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Pick.

Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning look for back-to-back wins to take a 2-1 series lead. The Lightning have split their last 14 games.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3 goals per game and are scoring on 25 percent of their power-play opportunities. Brandon Hagel leads Tampa Bay with 3 goals, Jake Guentzel has 4 assists, and Nikita Kucherov has 10 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 3 goals per game and are killing 55.6 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 6 goals on 46 shots faced.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview

The Montreal Canadiens will play their first home game in 13 days. The Canadiens have won 12 of their last 16 games.

The Montreal Canadiens are averaging 3 goals per game and are scoring on 44.4 percent of their power play opportunities. Juraj Slafkovsky leads Montreal with 3 goals, Nick Suzuki has 3 assists and Lane Hutson has 8 shots on goal. Defensively, the Montreal Canadiens are allowing 3 goals per game and are killing 75 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jakub Dobes has given up 6 goals on 57 shots faced.

Why the Montreal Canadiens will win

The Canadiens have won 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs after coming off overtime.
The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a home win.
The Canadiens have covered the puck line in each of their last 20 games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.
The Lightning have lost the first period in seven of their last eight games as road favorites following a win.

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

The Lightning have won five of their last six games after coming off overtime.
The road team has covered the puck line in six of the last seven games between the Lightning and Canadiens.
The Canadiens have failed to cover the puck line in four of their last five games at Bell Centre.
The Canadiens have lost the third period in four of their last five home games against Atlantic Division opponents when trailing after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

Six of the Lightning’s last seven road games following a win have gone OVER the total goals line.
Five of the Canadiens’ last six home games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in five of the Lightning’s last six games following an overtime win.
The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in four of the Canadiens’ last six home games against the Lightning.

Montreal Canadiens Player Prop Facts

Juraj Slafkovsky has scored at least one goal in five of the Canadiens’ last six games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
Nick Suzuki has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Canadiens’ last nine games as underdogs.
Cole Caufield ranks 2nd in the league for Goals (51) this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

Nikita Kucherov has scored a goal in four of his last five road appearances against the Canadiens.
Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in 12 of his last 13 appearances in night Game 3s of a playoff series.
Nikita Kucherov ranks 2nd in the league for Points (130) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Montreal Canadiens rank T4th in the league in short-handed goals allowed this season (4).
The Montreal Canadiens rank 4th in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.20).
The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 5 for both goals for and goals against per game this season.
The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.49).

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction

I understand the Lightning are going to get the respect given their history and success in the postseason over the years. The Habs had a Stanley Cup appearance a few years ago but between then and now, it’s been a lot of early exits or no playoff trip. I get it. However, as I said in my game 1 write-up, the Canadiens were good this season and deserve some respect as well.

You can also argue the Habs should have a 2-0 series lead, as they were the more physical team and had a third-period lead in game 2. The Habs have now won 3 of the last 4 games against the Lightning, with that one loss coming in overtime. First home game in two weeks, the crowd is going to be ready. You’re giving me plus money with the Canadiens at home; I’ll take it.