| MATCHUP | Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 39-19-4 | 39-19-6 |
| Where | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY | |
| When | Sunday, March 8, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Jets, beat the Maple Leafs, and will play the Blue Jackets next. The Lightning have lost 4 of their last 5 games.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 3.48 goals per game and are scoring on 21.9 percent of their power-play opportunities. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 32 goals, Jake Guentzel has 40 assists, and Brandon Hagel has 168 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 2.66 goals per game and are killing 83.4 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed 94 goals on 1,087 shots faced, while Jonas Johansson has given up 59 goals on 537 shots.
Buffalo Sabres Betting Preview
The Buffalo Sabres beat the Penguins and Predators, and they play the Sharks next. The Sabres have won 6 straight games.
The Buffalo Sabres are averaging 3.4 goals per game and are scoring 19.6 percent of their power play opportunities. Tage Thompson leads Buffalo with 34 goals, Rasmus Dahlin has 42 assists, and Alex Tuch has 150 shots on goal. Defensively, the Buffalo Sabres are allowing 2.95 goals per game and are killing 83.1 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Alex Lyon has given up 74 goals on 861 shots faced, and Colten Ellis has allowed 38 goals on 367 shots.
Why the Buffalo Sabres will win
- The Sabres have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
- The Lightning have lost three of their last four games as road favorites.
- The Sabres have covered the puck line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in six of their last seven games as road favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Lightning have lost the third period in four of their last five road games when trailing after the second period.
Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win
- The Lightning have won seven of their last eight games against Atlantic Division opponents.
- The Sabres have lost six of their last eight home games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The road team has covered the puck line in 16 of the Sabres’ last 17 games.
- The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games at KeyBank Center.
- The Sabres have lost the third period in each of their last four home games against Eastern Conference opponents when trailing after the second period.
Total Goals Facts
- Nine of the Lightning’s last 10 night games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Each of the Sabres’ last four games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total goals line.
- Each of the last three games between teams from the same division has gone OVER the total goals line.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in 14 of the last 16 games between the Lightning and Sabres.
- The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last seven games as favorites.
Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts
- Tage Thompson has scored at least one goal in six of the Sabres’ last seven games at KeyBank Center against opponents who are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last seven games at KeyBank Center.
- Mattias Samuelsson has scored two goals against the Lightning this season—the most against any opponent.
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts
- Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in five of the Lightning’s last six games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- Brayden Point has recorded at least one assist in seven of his last eight road appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
- Nikita Kucherov ranks 2nd in the league for assists (68) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Buffalo Sabres rank 1st in the league in shorthanded goals this season (9).
- The Buffalo Sabres have recorded the equal-longest road winning streak (7 games) in the NHL this season.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (83.42%).
- The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 5th in the league for goals per game this season (3.48).
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction
The Lightning have had defensive issues during this losing stretch and while they got a win over the struggling Leafs, I doubt them being on the end of a back-to-back helps. I keep saying the Sabres might actually be good and here they are, keeping trucking along. The Sabres beat the Lightning a week ago on the road, 6-2. You keep giving me the Sabres and these cheap prices, and I’m going to continue taking them. The Sabres also don’t have to travel after playing yesterday. Give me the Sabres.