Stars vs Avalanche Prediction 5/1/25 NHL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Stars vs Avalanche prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, May 1st at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Dallas Stars Betting Preview

The Dallas Stars are up 3-2 in the series after they won game five by a score of 6-2. Dallas had their 3-0 lead cut to 3-2 in the second, but they responded with the last three goals in the game to seal the win. The Stars recorded 27 shots on goal, won 55.4% of the face-offs, and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Dallas got goals from Hintz, Johnston (2), Marchment, Rantanen, and Harley, while Oettinger stopped 26 out of 28 shots in the game. 

Prior to that win, the Stars dropped games one and four, but did win games two and three by scores of 4-3 and 2-1. Dallas has lost nine of their last twelve games and they finished second in the Central standings with 106 points. Dallas has scored 3.35 goals per game and they have allowed 2.71 goals against per game, while also going 22% on the power play and 82% on the penalty kill this season. Wyatt Johnston has led Dallas with two goals, three assists, and 11 shots on goal, while Harley and Rantanen both have four points in the series. Jake Oettinger is 3-2 with a 2.58 goals against average and a .914 save percentage this postseason. 

Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview

The Colorado Avalanche are facing elimination in this series after they were blown out in game five. Colorado did not play a strong first period, but they cut the deficit to just 3-2 in the second, before taking a terrible penalty and allowing Dallas to score just two minutes later in the loss. The Avalanche recorded 28 shots on goal, won 44.6% of the face-offs, and went 0-3 on the power play in the game. Colorado got goals from Lehkonen and MacKinnon, while Blackwood stopped 13 out of 18 shots in the game. 

Prior to this series, the Avalanche defeated the Ducks by a score of 4-2, but did lose to the Kings by a score of 5-4 before that. Colorado has lost five of their last eight games and they finished third in the Central standings with 102 points. Colorado has scored 3.33 goals per game and they have allowed 2.82 goals against per game, while also going 24.8% on the power play and 79.8% on the penalty kill this season. Nathan MacKinnon has led Colorado with five goals, two assists, and 31 shots on goal, while Logan O’Connor has added two goals, three assists, and five shots on goal. Mackenzie Blackwood is 2-3 with a 2.38 goals against average and a .909 save percentage in the series. 

Why the Avalanche will beat the Stars 

• The Avalanche have won 11 of their last 13 night games following a road loss.
• The Stars have lost four of their last five road games.
• The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in nine of their last 12 games.
• The home team has covered the puck line in three of the Stars’ last four games.
• The Avalanche have won the second period in 11 of their last 13 games against the Stars when tied after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Avalanche’s last seven home games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Each of the Stars’ last four road games against Central Division opponents have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four games between two teams from the Central Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in nine of the Stars’ last 11 games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in three of the Avalanche’s last four games.

Colorado Avalanche Player Prop Facts

• Devon Toews has recorded an assist in seven of the Avalanche’s last eight games against Central Division opponents at Ball Arena.
• Jonathan Drouin has recorded at least one point in seven of his last eight home appearances against the Stars.
• Nathan MacKinnon has scored at least one goal in five of the Avalanche’s last six games as favorites against Central Division opponents.
• Artturi Lehkonen ranks 1st in the Central Division for Plus/Minus (+36) this season.

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one point in 11 of his last 12 appearances in night games at Ball Arena.
• Miro Heiskanen has recorded an assist in each of his last five appearances after playing less than 20 minutes in the Stars’ last game.
• Esa Lindell ranks T2nd in the Central Division for Plus/Minus (+34) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Colorado Avalanche rank 2nd in the league for Period 3 goals scored per game this season (1.32).
• The Colorado Avalanche rank 3rd in the league for shots against per game this season (25.9).
• The Dallas Stars rank 6th in the league for goals against per game this season (2.71).
• The Dallas Stars are one of seven teams to rank in the top 10 for both goals scored and goals conceded per game this season.

Stars vs Avalanche Prediction 

Colorado comes into this matchup in a must win situation, but they will be on home ice here. The Avs have been very good at home this season and they are coming off of a 4-0 shutout win in their last home game. Dallas continues to be without some key players, but they have won three of the last four games in this series. I have been very impressed with how Dallas has fought in this series after that 5-1 loss in game one, but I think Colorado will have another dominant performance at home. Take Colorado to get the big win, which will set us up for game seven this weekend. 

David Racey's Pick: Avalanche -1.5